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\u5018\u82e5\u77e5\u8bc6\u7cbe\u82f1\u2014\u2014\u8206\u8bba\u548c\u7cbe\u795e\u6c1b\u56f4\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5851\u9020\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u8d70\u51fa\u8fd9\u79cd\u81ea\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u9762\u5bf9\u3001\u8981\u6c42\u6574\u4f53\u6027\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u52c7\u6c14\u4e0e\u9b44\u529b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c06\u662f\u6e3a\u832b\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5728\u5185\u5fc3\u5e76\u4e0d\u6392\u65a5\u751a\u81f3\u6e34\u671b\u7ecf\u7531\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u5f15\u8d77\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u51fa\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4f2a\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u8868\u8ff0\u59a8\u788d\u4e86\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u3001\u6587\u5316\u6c1b\u56f4\u7684\u5f62\u6210[2]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\u3001\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u6050\u60e7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u4e13\u5236\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u5371\u673a\u4e3a\u5927\u524d\u63d0\u3002\u5f53\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0d\u518d\u88ab\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u8ba4\u540c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5371\u673a\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e0a\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u5371\u673a\u201d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u201c\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u5371\u673a\u201d(crisis of legitimacy) [3]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u5371\u673a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e13\u5236\u79e9\u5e8f\u5d29\u6e83\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u6c11\u4e3b\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u771f\u5b9e\u800c\u975e\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u9009\u62e9\uff08real alternative\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u624d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002[4]<\/strong><\/a>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u5305\u62ec\u8db3\u591f\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1[5]<\/strong><\/a>\u2014\u2014\u613f\u610f\u4ee5\u5b9e\u9645\u884c\u52a8\u7ed3\u675f\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u624d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4ed8\u8bf8\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u5fd7\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4f18\u8d8a\u6027\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002
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\u8981\u60f3\u5efa\u7acb\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u50cf\u5f53\u4e0b\u76db\u884c\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u90a3\u6837\u56de\u907f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5927\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u6b63\u89c6\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u3001\u8ba4\u771f\u7814\u7a76\u9610\u91ca\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u5e94\u8be5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6210\u529f\u5730\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5929\u584c\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u5927\u52ab\u96be\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6536\u83b7\u7684\u662f\u89e3\u653e\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4e00\u7684\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u7684\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4e0d\u914d\u5f97\u5230\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u6211\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u6b63\u89c6\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\u98ce\u9669\u7a76\u7adf\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u4ec0\u4e48\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5e76\u627e\u51fa\u5bf9\u6cbb\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u529e\u6cd5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u6218\u7565\u3001\u6b65\u9aa4\u4ee5\u53ca\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u5f97\u5f53\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u65cf\u7fa4\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u3001\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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5\u3001\u8bfe\u7a0b\u7684\u8ba1\u5212<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong><\/a> \u8fd9\u91cc\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u5f53\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bed\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u7279\u522b\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u732e\u6709\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u63d0\u5230\u67d0\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u201d\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08gradualism\uff09\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u6210\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\uff08gradual\uff09\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u5c06\u4f1a\u8c08\u5230\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u5f00\u7aef\u7684\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5373\u5f00\u653e\u8a00\u7981\u515a\u7981\u7b49\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ece\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8bae\u4f1a\u5927\u9009\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u52302\u5e74\u3002\u6211\u56fd\u8bb8\u591a\u77e5\u8bc6\u7cbe\u82f1\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u4e3b\u4e49\u5219\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56de\u907f\u5f00\u653e\u8a00\u7981\u515a\u7981\u3001\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u7b49\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u2014\u2014\u53ea\u6709\u6781\u4e2a\u522b\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5c3d\u5feb\u5f00\u653e\u515a\u7981\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u800c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5c06\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fd1\u671f\u8003\u8651\u3002\u5f00\u653e\u515a\u7981\u3001\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u662f\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u3001\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6df7\u4e71\u5931\u5e8f\uff0c\u201c\u73b0\u5b9e\u201d\u3001\u201c\u7a33\u5065\u201d\u7684\u6218\u7565\u662f\u4ece\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u592a\u201c\u654f\u611f\u201d\u3001\u201c\u8981\u5bb3\u201d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5165\u624b\u8fdb\u884c\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u4e3b\u4e49\u5176\u5b9e\u53ea\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6709\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5c06\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u63a8\u8fdf\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/strong><\/a> \u300a\u8bba\u8a00\u8bba\u81ea\u7531\u300b\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u80e1\u5e73\u5148\u751f\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5bf9\u5176\u4e3b\u5f20\u8ba4\u771f\u3002\u6211\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u540c\u610f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u4e3b\u5f20\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u670d\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u8bf1\u4f7f\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u6539\u9769\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u964d\u4f4e\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u56de\u907f\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u8fce\u5408\u9886\u5bfc\u96c6\u56e2\u7684\u53e3\u5473\uff0c\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u76ee\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5185\u5fc3\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u6392\u65a5\u3001\u76f8\u53cd\u6e34\u671b\u5c3d\u5feb\u8fdb\u884c\u6574\u4f53\u6027\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u5047\u5982\u660e\u5929\u5c31\u53d1\u751f\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u5185\u5fc3\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u8206\u8bba\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5fc5\u987b\u5bf9\u5176\u8868\u8ff0\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u3001\u6587\u5316\u6c1b\u56f4\u3002\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u6240\u5ba3\u626c\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u59a8\u788d\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c1b\u56f4\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u8981\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4f9d\u9760\u7684\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u5351\u5fae\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fde\u91cd\u5927\u6539\u9769\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u90fd\u4e0d\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u5c31\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u672c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u7b2c\u4e09\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u6b64\u70b9\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bf4\u660e\u3002
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[3]<\/strong><\/a> \u82f1\u6587 legitimacy\u4e00\u8bcd\u4e2d\u6587\u901a\u5e38\u8bd1\u6210\u201c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u82f1\u6587\u4e2d\u4e0e\u4e2d\u6587\u201c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u201d\u7b49\u4e49\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662flegality\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u201clegitimacy\u201d\u3002\u4e2d\u6587\u201c\u6cd5\u201d\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u73b0\u884c\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u82f1\u6587legitimacy\u5374\u672a\u5fc5\u6307\u7b26\u5408\u73b0\u884c\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff08legality\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\u7b26\u5408\u6bd4\u6cd5\u5f8b\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u5176\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u662f\u201c\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u6027\u201d\u3001\u201c\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u201d\u3002\u7b26\u5408\u73b0\u884c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\uff0c\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u6b63\u5f53\u7684\u3001\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c06\u201clegitimacy\u201d\u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e76\u4e0d\u6392\u65a5\u5c06\u201clegitimacy\u201d\u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u201d\u3002
\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u201d\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u6cd5\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u6307\u73b0\u884c\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8868\u8ff0\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u8bb8\u591a\u666e\u901a\u8bfb\u8005\u5e26\u6765\u56f0\u60d1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u770b\u5230\u201c\u6cd5\u201d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u73b0\u884c\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6bd4\u6cd5\u5f8b\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[4]<\/strong><\/a> \u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6Adam Przeworski\u8bba\u8ff0\u8fc7\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e13\u5236\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u5371\u673a\u4e0d\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c11\u4e3b\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u4e3a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u53c2\u89c1Adam Przeworski, Some Problems in the Study of Transition to Democracy<\/em>, in Guillermo O’Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives<\/em> (The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986)\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[5]<\/strong><\/a>\u201c\u7cbe\u82f1\u201d\uff08elite\uff09\u4e00\u8bcd\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u8912\u8d2c\u3002\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5177\u6709\u4f18\u8d8a\u6027\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6bd4\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u6743\u529b\u3001\u5730\u4f4d\u3001\u8d22\u5bcc\u3001\u624d\u667a\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u3002\u5728\u6c49\u8bed\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u7cbe\u82f1\u201d\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u8912\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u6743\u52bf\u3001\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u624d\u5e72\u3001\u9053\u5fb7\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u201c\u7cbe\u82f1\u201d\u3002\u672c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5e76\u4e0d\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u72ed\u4e49\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u7cbe\u82f1\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[6]<\/strong><\/a> \u5728\u534e\u4eba\u5b66\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u63d0\u51fa\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u7684\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u5434\u56fd\u5149\u6559\u6388\u3002\u53c2\u89c1\u5434\u56fd\u5149\u300a\u6784\u9020\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u201d\uff1a\u518d\u8bba\u201c\u53bf\u653f\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d\u300b\uff0chttp:\/\/www.xschina.org\/show.php?id=9157<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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