{"id":154,"date":"2022-11-03T18:54:23","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T10:54:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ifcdt.450001.net\/?p=154"},"modified":"2022-11-03T18:54:24","modified_gmt":"2022-11-03T10:54:24","slug":"%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e8%8a%82-%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%e5%8f%91%e7%94%9f%e5%8e%9f%e5%9b%a0%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=154","title":{"rendered":"\u7b2c\u4e09\u8282 \u6c11\u4e3b\u53d1\u751f\u539f\u56e0\u89e3\u91ca"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u524d\u9762\u6211\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u65e9\u572819\u4e16\u7eaa30\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u8513\u5ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u6258\u514b\u7ef4\u5c14\u9884\u8a00\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5373\u5c06\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u548c\u666e\u904d\u5730\u5230\u6765\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fdb\u800c\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4e00\u573a\u6e90\u8fdc\u6d41\u957f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u80fd\u88ab\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u6240\u963b\u6b62\uff0c\u5c82\u975e\u611a\u8822\u201d[1]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

19\u4e16\u7eaa30\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u6258\u514b\u7ef4\u5c14\u5728\u300a\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u4e2d\u9884\u8a00\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5373\u5c06\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u548c\u666e\u904d\u5730\u5230\u6765\u201d\u3002


\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5462\uff1f\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\u524d\u63d0\u548c\u6761\u4ef6\u5462\uff1f\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u5f88\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5206\u6790\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\uff08theory of modernity\uff09\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u7ed9\u4e88\u89e3\u91ca\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66(transitology)\uff0c\u7740\u773c\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u53d1\u751f\u3001\u5efa\u6784\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10\u3001\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u5c06\u5148\u7b80\u5355\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e00\u4e0b\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c55\u5f00\u4ecb\u7ecd\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u4e2d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u768470\u4f59\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u5f53\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff1b\u6709\u7684\u5219\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4f4e\u5f97\u60ca\u4eba\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8d1d\u5b81\u3001\u9a6c\u91cc\u7b49\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7f16\u8f91\u62c9\u91cc\u00b7\u6234\u8499\uff08Larry Diamond\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u51762008\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u300b\u4e2d\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u3002\u88ab\u8054\u5408\u56fd2002\u5e74\u300a\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u5217\u4e3a\u6700\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u768436\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u670915\u4e2a\uff0842%\uff09\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff08\u89c1\u4e0b\u8868\uff09\uff0c\u88ab\u5217\u5165\u6b21\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u768423\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u5219\u670911\u4e2a\uff0848%\uff09[2]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u66fe\u7ecf\u975e\u5e38\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u6211\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5bf9\u5728\u5176\u540e\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u7406\u8bba\u5374\u5e76\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u3002
\u56fe\u88686  \u6700\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u4f53\u7c7b\u578b\uff082006\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56fd\u5bb6<\/strong><\/td>2002<\/strong>\u5e74\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong>
\u8bc4\u5206\uff08\u6392\u540d\uff09<\/strong><\/td>		\u6c11\u4e3b<\/strong><\/td>\u5a01\u6743<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u585e\u62c9\u5229\u6602<\/td>0.275\uff08177\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u5c3c\u65e5\u5c14<\/td>0.277\uff08176\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u5e03\u57fa\u7eb3\u6cd5\u7d22<\/td>0.302\uff08175\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u9a6c\u91cc<\/td>0.326\uff08174\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u5e03\u9686\u8fea<\/td>0.339\uff08173\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u83ab\u6851\u6bd4\u514b<\/td>0.354  \uff08171\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u57c3\u585e\u4fc4\u6bd4\u4e9a<\/td>0.359\uff08170\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u4e2d\u975e\u5171\u548c\u56fd<\/td>0.361\uff08169\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u521a\u679c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5171\u548c\u56fd<\/td>0.365\uff08168\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u4e4d\u5f97<\/td>0.379\uff08167\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u5b89\u54e5\u62c9<\/td>0.381\uff08166\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u9a6c\u62c9\u7ef4<\/td>0.388\uff08165\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u8d5e\u6bd4\u4e9a<\/td>0.389\uff08164\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u8c61\u7259\u6d77\u5cb8<\/td>0.399\uff08163\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u5766\u6851\u5c3c\u4e9a<\/td>0.407\uff08162\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u8d1d\u5b81<\/td>0.421\uff08161\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u51e0\u5185\u4e9a<\/td>0.425\uff08160\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u5362\u65fa\u8fbe<\/td>0.431\uff08159\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u4e1c\u5e1d\u6c76<\/td>0.436\uff08158\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u585e\u5185\u52a0\u5c14<\/td>0.437\uff08157\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u5384\u7acb\u7279\u91cc\u4e9a<\/td>0.439\uff08156\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u5188\u6bd4\u4e9a<\/td>0.452\uff08155\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u5409\u5e03\u63d0<\/td>0.454\uff08154\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u6d77\u5730<\/td>0.463\uff08153\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u6bdb\u91cc\u5854\u5c3c\u4e9a<\/td>0.465\uff08152\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9a<\/td>0.466\uff08151\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u9a6c\u8fbe\u52a0\u65af\u52a0<\/td>0.469\uff08150\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u4e5f\u95e8<\/td>0.482\uff08149\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9a<\/td>0.488\uff08148\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u6d25\u5df4\u5e03\u97e6<\/td>0.491\uff08147\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u4e4c\u5e72\u8fbe<\/td>0.493\uff08146\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u83b1\u7d22\u6258<\/td>0.493\uff08145\uff09<\/td>\u221a<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u521a\u679c<\/td>0.494\uff08144\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u6c64\u52a0<\/td>0.495\uff08143\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766<\/td>0.497\uff08142\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u221a<\/td><\/tr>
\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a<\/strong>36<\/strong><\/td> <\/td>\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a<\/strong>15<\/strong><\/td>\u5a01\u6743\uff1a<\/strong>21<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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11\u3001\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a\u52a8\u6001\u5206\u6790\u89c6\u89d2<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u8fdb\u800c\u5c06\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\u662f\u9884\u5907\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u5f15\u53d1\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u7684\u3001\u6269\u6563\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6297\u4e89\u3002\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u76f8\u5f53\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\u76f8\u4e92\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u9886\u8896\u4eba\u7269\u4f1a\u53d1\u6325\u7279\u522b\u5927\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8981\u5c31\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8fdb\u884c\u8c08\u5224\u3002\u6700\u540e\u662f\u4e60\u60ef\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u662f\u82e6\u6da9\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u65e6\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u53ef\u53e3\u7684\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u65b0\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u4e0b\u7ade\u593a\u516c\u804c\u3001\u5904\u7406\u7ea0\u7eb7\uff0c\u5728\u65e5\u590d\u4e00\u65e5\u7684\u516c\u5171\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4f53\u9a8c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u597d\u5904[10]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002
\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u7684\u5206\u6790\u89c6\u89d2\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5f53\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5148\u58f0\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e3a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7684\u5927\u53d1\u5c55\u5219\u662f\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5174\u8d77\u3001\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8bf4\u662f\u8fdb\u516580\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4ece\u90a3\u65f6\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6d69\u5982\u70df\u6d77\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u60f3\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u5230\u3001\u63a8\u8350\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u5409\u52d2\u83ab\u00b7\u5965\u591a\u7eb3\uff08Guillermo O\u2019Donnell\uff09\u4e0e\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u65af\u5bc6\u7279\uff08Philippe C. Schmitter\uff09\u4e3b\u7f16\u7684\u300180\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4ece\u5a01\u6743\u7edf\u6cbb\u8f6c\u578b\u300b\uff08\u5171\u56db\u5377\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53e6\u4e24\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\uff08Juan Linz\uff09\u548c\u963f\u5c14\u5f17\u83b1\u5fb7\u00b7\u65af\u6cf0\u6f58\uff08Alfred Stepan\uff0990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u5de9\u56fa\u95ee\u9898\u300b\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2a\u6848\u548c\u76f8\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6982\u62ec\uff0c\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u88ab\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5de8\u8457\u3002


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\u4e0b\u9762\u5c06\u4ecb\u7ecd\u56fd\u5916\u5b66\u8005\u6839\u636e\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u5404\u4e3b\u8981\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u6cbb\u89d2\u8272\uff08actors\uff09\u7684\u535a\u5f08\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u6218\u7565\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5965\u591a\u7eb3\u3001\u65af\u5bc6\u7279\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ece\u4e13\u5236\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5185\u90e8\u53d1\u751f\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8f6c\u578b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8bba\u65ad\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u76f8\u5f53\u5173\u952e\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5206\u88c2\u201d\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u6307\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5185\u90e8\u88c2\u53d8\u51fa\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e(soft-liners)\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u4e0e\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\uff08hard-liners\uff09\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u201c\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u76f8\u4fe1\u5f7b\u5e95\u5b9e\u884c\u5a01\u6743\u7edf\u6cbb\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f7b\u5e95\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f2a\u88c5\u4e5f\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u53d7\u4fb5\u72af\u7684\u3001\u7b49\u7ea7\u68ee\u4e25\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u7edf\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\u3002\u201d\u201c\u6709\u7684\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u7acb\u573a\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5173\u5fc3\u957f\u8fdc\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u53ea\u5173\u5fc3\u4fdd\u4f4f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u804c\u4f4d\u548c\u5206\u8d43\u4efd\u989d\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u6784\u6210\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u53d1\u81ea\u80ba\u8151\u8981\u62d2\u65a5\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u2018\u4e0d\u6cbb\u4e4b\u75c7\u2019\u548c\u2018\u6df7\u4e71\u5931\u5e8f\u2019\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u3002\u201c\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u8d77\u521d\u4e0e\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u533a\u522b\u201d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u547c\u58f0\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u53cd\u6297\uff0c\u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6837\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4f7f\u7528\u9547\u538b\u624b\u6bb5\u3001\u7eb5\u5bb9\u76f8\u5173\u90e8\u95e8\u6216\u5b89\u5168\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4e13\u6a2a\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\u3002\u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8f6c\u53d8\u6210\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u534f\u52a9\u5efa\u7acb\u5e76\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u5360\u636e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5728\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u672a\u6765\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6216\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u800c\u6b63\u5f53\u5316\u3002\u201d[11]<\/strong><\/a>
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5965\u591a\u7eb3\u6240\u9610\u91ca\u7684\u201c\u5206\u88c2\u201d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53ea\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u5728\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e9b\u8f6c\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u53d1\u73b0\u5206\u88c2\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u79cd\u660e\u663e\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u4e00\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5965\u591a\u7eb3\u6240\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u88c2\u65e2\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u7684\u9996\u9886\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u848b\u7ecf\u56fd[12]<\/strong><\/a>\u3001\u6ce2\u5170\u7684\u7259\u9c81\u6cfd\u5c14\u65af\u57fa[13]<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u804c\u4f4d\u4e0e\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u76f8\u8fd1\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u6ce2\u65af\u8328\u683c(Poszgay)\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d75\u7d2b\u9633\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5206\u88c2\u662f\u519b\u961f\u3001\u8b66\u5bdf\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u6216\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u62d2\u7edd\u670d\u4ece\u9547\u538b\u7684\u547d\u4ee4\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9f50\u5965\u585e\u65af\u5e93\u624b\u4e0b\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7b2c\u4e00\u526f\u90e8\u957f\u65af\u767b\u53e4\u96f7\u65af\u5e93\u5077\u5077\u4e0b\u4ee4\u519b\u961f\u64a4\u56de\u519b\u8425\uff0c\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u7684\u534e\u62c9\u514b\u7ef4\u514b\u5c06\u519b\u5728\u7535\u89c6\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u8bb2\u8bdd\uff1a\u201c\u519b\u961f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0e\u4eba\u6c11\u4f5c\u6218\u201d\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u519b\u961f\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5185\u90e8\u5206\u88c2\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5173\u952e\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5fd8\u8bb0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5185\u90e8\u5206\u88c2\u662f\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u770b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u53cd\u53db\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5185\u90e8\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u540e\u9762\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u53d9\u8ff0\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u8c08\u5230\uff0c\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d77\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1989\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u9ad8\u5c42\u5206\u5316\u51fa\u8d75\u7d2b\u9633\u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u3002




\u5f53\u4ee3\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f80\u5f80\u4ee5\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u51b3\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\u201d\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u9884\u5907\u9636\u6bb5\u201d\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u542f\u52a8\u8f6c\u578b\u540e\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5f53\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u8c08\u8bba\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6307\u7684\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u8f6c\u578b\u88ab\u63d0\u4e0a\u653f\u6cbb\u65e5\u7a0b\u540e\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de9\u56fa\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u4e60\u60ef\u201d\u2014\u2014\u4e24\u5927\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u53c8\u8fdb\u800c\u88ab\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e24\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u3001\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff08\u89c1\u4e0b\u56fe\uff09\u3002
\u56fe\u88687 \u4ece\u4e13\u5236\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0b\u9762\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u754c\u8bf4\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de9\u56fa\u4e09\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4ece\u4e13\u5236\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4ee4\u4eba\u6fc0\u52a8\u7684\u5b8f\u5927\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u8fc1\u3002\u9700\u8981\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u8f6c\u578b\u524d\u7684\u9884\u5907\u9636\u6bb5\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5f53\u7136\u4e5f\u4e88\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b66\u3001\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7684\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8865\u5145\u3002

\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong>
\u585e\u7f2a\u5c14\u00b7\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u8457\u3001\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u8bd1\u300a\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\uff1a20\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u671f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u7b2c\u4e94\u8282\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u3002
\u62c9\u91cc\u00b7\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u8457\u3001\u5f20\u5927\u519b\u8bd1\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u300b\uff0c\u5f15\u8a00:\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5165\u53e3\u5904\u2014\u8d85\u8d8a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6(9-12\u9875);\u63a8\u52a8\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u529b\u91cf:\u5185\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20(\u91cd\u70b9:95-98\u9875)
\u82f1\u6587:
Seymour Martin Lipset:Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy,American Political Science Review 53,No.1,1959.
Dankwart A. Rustow, Transitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model<\/em>, Comparative Politics 2 (April,1970): 337-363\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong><\/a> \u6258\u514b\u7ef4\u5c14\u8457\u3001\u8463\u679c\u826f\u8bd1\u300a\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u4e0a\u5377\u7b2c\u5341\u4e8c\u7248\u5e8f\uff0c\u5546\u52a1\u5370\u4e66\u9986\uff0c1991\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/strong><\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Larry Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy <\/em>(Henry Holt and Company), 2008, Appendix, Table 3, Regimes Types of Least Developed States<\/em>, 2006\u3002\u6234\u8499\u8bf4\uff0c\u572857\u4e2a\u4f4e\u6216\u5728\u6216\u4e2d\u4f4e\u53d1\u5c55\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u670927\u4e2a\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0847%\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u7ea6\u67097\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6709\u4e9b\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u548c\u516c\u6b63\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u603b\u4f53\u653f\u6cbb\u73af\u5883\u6709\u4e9b\u53ef\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[3]<\/strong><\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Seymour Martin Lipset\uff0cSome Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy\uff08 American Political Science Review 53,No.1,1959\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[4]<\/strong><\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[5]<\/strong><\/a> Robert Alan Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition<\/em> (Yale University Press, 1972), pp.208-209.\u8f6c\u5f15\u81eaLarry Diamond\uff0cThe Spirit of Democracy\uff0cp10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[6]<\/strong><\/a> Larry Diamond\uff0cThe Spirit of Democracy<\/em>, pp.10-11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[7]<\/strong><\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0cp11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[8]<\/strong><\/a> Francis Fukuyama,The End of History and the Last Man<\/em>\uff08Free Press\uff0c1992\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[9]<\/strong><\/a> Larry Diamond, China and East Asian Democracy: the Coming Wave. Journal of Democracy Volume 23, Number 1 January 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[10]<\/strong><\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Dankwart A. Rustow, Transitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model<\/em>, Comparative Politics 2 (April,1970): 337-363\u3002Rustow\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\u201d\u4e4b\u7236\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3001\u5206\u6790\u89c6\u89d2\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5174\u8d77\u4e4b\u540e\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[11]<\/strong><\/a> Guillermo O\u2019Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies <\/em>(The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986),p16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[12]<\/strong><\/a> 2010\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u4e0e\u4e00\u4f4d\u53f0\u6e7e\u524d\u653f\u8981\u4ea4\u8c08\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\uff0c1986\u5e74\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u996d\u5e97\u5ba3\u5e03\u6210\u7acb\u540e\uff0c\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u9ad8\u5c42\u8ba8\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u9547\u538b\uff0c\u848b\u7ecf\u56fd\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u53f0\u4e0a\u6267\u653f\u7684\u4e07\u5e74\u653f\u515a\u3002\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u9ed8\u8ba4\uff0c\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[13]<\/strong><\/a> 1989\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u96c5\u9c81\u6cfd\u5c14\u65af\u57fa\u5728\u6ce2\u5170\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u4e2d\u592e\u5168\u4f1a\u4e0a\u63d0\u8bae\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u906d\u5230\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0e\u5185\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u4e00\u8d77\u63d0\u51fa\u8f9e\u804c\uff0c\u8d70\u51fa\u4e86\u4f1a\u8bae\u5ba4\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u524d\u9762\u6211\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u65e9\u572819\u4e16\u7eaa30\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e5f […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-17"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=154"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":155,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154\/revisions\/155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}