{"id":158,"date":"2022-11-03T19:02:24","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T11:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ifcdt.450001.net\/?p=158"},"modified":"2022-11-03T19:02:25","modified_gmt":"2022-11-03T11:02:25","slug":"%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%94%e8%8a%82-%e8%bd%ac%e5%9e%8b%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f%ef%bc%9a%e9%80%9f%e5%ba%a6%e4%b8%8e%e5%90%af%e5%8a%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=158","title":{"rendered":"\u7b2c\u4e94\u8282 \u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0e\u542f\u52a8"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

15\u3001\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u5f0f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u8fc4\u4eca\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4ece\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5212\u5206\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u67d0\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u4f1a\u6d89\u53ca\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5e38\u63d0\u5230\u5176\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u5feb\u6162\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e88\u4ee5\u6df1\u5165\u8003\u5bdf\u3002\u201c\u65f6\u95f4\u6709\u4f17\u591a\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u548c\u9762\u5b54\uff0c\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u6e38\u620f\u8005\u3002\u7136\u800c\u2026\u2026\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u603b\u8bba\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u8fd8\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u4e88\u6e05\u695a\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u201d[1]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u201d\u66f4\u611f\u5174\u8da3[2]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u901f\u5ea6\u3001\u8282\u594f\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6211\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u76db\u884c\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4ece\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u8f6c\u578b\u901f\u5ea6\u66f4\u6709\u7740\u7279\u522b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002
\u6211\u613f\u610f\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u521d\u6b65\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002\u5728\u5bf9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8f6c\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u4ece\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea6\u5373\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5c06\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u5206\u4e3a\u6162\u901f\u3001\u4e2d\u901f\u548c\u5feb\u901f\u4e09\u5927\u7c7b\u3002 \u6211\u5c06\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201cL-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u201d\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u672c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u3002L\u548cD\u5206\u522b\u662f\u82f1\u6587liberalization(\u81ea\u7531\u5316)\u548cdemocratization\uff08\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff09\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b57\u6bcd\u3002\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6709\u4e9b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u662f\u7acb\u5baa\u4f1a\u8bae\u6216\u5177\u6709\u4e34\u65f6\u8bae\u4f1a\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u7acb\u5baa\u8bae\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e25\u683c\u8bf4\u6765\u5e76\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u7b49\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u3002
\u4e0b\u8868\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4e8621\u4e2a\u8fc7\u53bb\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5357\u6b27\u3001\u62c9\u7f8e\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u3001\u4e1c\u6b27\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u8f6c\u578b\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u8fdc\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f46\u6240\u9009\u7684\u5927\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u8f6c\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u53d7\u5230\u7279\u522b\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u8457\u540d\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a\u6797\u8328\u3001\u65af\u6cf0\u6f58\u5728\u5176\u5de8\u8457\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u5de9\u56fa\u300b\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5357\u6b27\u3001\u62c9\u7f8e\u548c\u82cf\u8054\u4e1c\u6b27\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6211\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u9664\u82cf\u8054\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\u3001\u7231\u6c99\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u6240\u670912\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u800c\u8865\u5145\u4e86\u79d8\u9c81\u2014\u201480\u5e74\u4ee3\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u62c9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff08Journal of Democracy\uff09\u7cfb\u5217\u4e1b\u4e66\u4e4b\u4e00\u300a\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u300b\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5357\u975e\u3001\u52a0\u7eb3\u3001\u5188\u6bd4\u4e9a\uff08The Gambia\uff09\u3001\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u4e4c\u5e72\u8fbe\u3001\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9a[3]<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c\u6211\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u5357\u975e\u3001\u52a0\u7eb3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9664\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5916\u5176\u4ed6\u662f\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u4e3b\u6216\u90e8\u5206\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8865\u5145\u4e86\u8d1d\u5b81\u548c\u9a6c\u91cc\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6765\u81ea\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4eec\u5206\u522b\u662f\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u8d2b\u7a77\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1b\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u4e1b\u4e66\u4e4b\u4e00\u300a\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u3001\u6cf0\u56fd\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u548c\u8d8a\u5357[4]<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u7406\u7531\u53ea\u9009\u53d6\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u8865\u5145\u4e86\u8499\u53e4\u548c90\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u624d\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u66fe\u7ecf\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u662f\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002
\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u5907\u53d7\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8f6c\u578b\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u6210\u5b83\u5c31\u5d29\u6e83\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6ca1\u6709\u5165\u9009\uff1b\u4e0e\u6b64\u76f8\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7b49\u4ece\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u4e2d\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u4ece\u5357\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u7684\u89e3\u4f53\u4e2d\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u7eb3\u5165\u3002
\u5165\u9009\u768421\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u5730\u533a\uff09\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\u201d2008\u5e74\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e2d\u4ece\u72ec\u7acb\u5a01\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6c\u53d8\u800c\u6765\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u9762\u79ef\u3001\u5730\u7406\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7b49\u539f\u56e0\u800c\u5177\u6709\u7279\u6b8a\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u90fd\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u91cc\u9762\u4e86\u3002
\u56fe\u8868 11. \u8f6c\u578b\u901f\u5ea6\uff1a\u4ece\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\uff08L-D\u8de8\u5ea6\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7c7b\u578b<\/strong>     <\/td>\u56fd\u5bb6<\/strong><\/td>\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb<\/strong><\/td>\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009<\/strong><\/td>L-D <\/strong>\u8de8\u5ea6\uff08\u5e74\/\u6708\uff09<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b<\/td>\u5df4\u897f<\/td>1974.5  <\/td>1982. 11(\u8bae\u4f1a)   <\/td>8\/6     <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1989.11(\u603b\u7edf)    <\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u667a\u5229<\/td>1980.11<\/td>1989.12\uff08\u603b\u3001\u8bae\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u53f0\u6e7e\uff08\u5730\u533a\uff09<\/td>1986.9<\/td>1992.12\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
    \u56fd\u5bb6\/\u5730\u533a\u6570\u76ee<\/td>3<\/td> <\/td>\u5e73\u5747\u8de8\u5ea6<\/td>7\/11<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u4e2d\u901f\u8f6c\u578b<\/td>\u4e4c\u62c9\u572d<\/td>1980.11<\/td>1984.11\uff08\u603b\u3001\u8bae\uff09<\/td>4\/0<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u52a0\u7eb3<\/td>1987.7<\/td>1992.11\uff08\u603b\u3001\u8bae\uff09<\/td>5\/4<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5357\u975e<\/td>1990.2<\/td>1994.4\u603b\u3001\u8bae\uff09<\/td>4\/2<\/td><\/tr>
\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u76ee<\/td>3<\/td> <\/td>      \u5e73\u5747\u8de8\u5ea6<\/td>4\/6<\/td><\/tr>
\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b<\/td>\u79d8\u9c81<\/td>1975.8<\/td>1978.6\uff08\u7acb\u5baa\u4f1a\u8bae\uff09<\/td>2\/10<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1980.5<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u897f\u73ed\u7259<\/td>1975.11<\/td>1977.6\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td>1\/7<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u8461\u8404\u7259<\/td>1974.4<\/td>1975.4\uff08\u7acb\u5baa\u4f1a\u8bae\uff09<\/td>1\/0<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1976.4\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1976.6\uff08\u603b\u7edf\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5e0c\u814a<\/td>1974.7<\/td>1974.12\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td>0\/5<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u963f\u6839\u5ef7<\/td>1982.6<\/td>1983.10\u603b\u3001\u8bae\uff09<\/td>1\/4<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u97e9\u56fd<\/td>1987.6<\/td>1987.12\uff08\u603b\u7edf\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1988.4\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u6ce2\u5170<\/td>1988.8<\/td>1989.6\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td>0\/10<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1990.11\uff08\u603b\u7edf\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5308\u7259\u5229<\/td>1988.5<\/td>1990.3\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td>1\/8<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a<\/td>1989.11<\/td>1990.6\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td>0\/7<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b<\/td>1989.11<\/td>1990.6\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td>0\/7<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a<\/td>1989.12<\/td>1990.5\uff08\u8bae\u3001\u603b\uff09<\/td>0\/5<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u8499\u53e4<\/td>1990.3<\/td>1990.7\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5370\u5c3c<\/td>1998.5<\/td>1999.6\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td>1\/1<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1999.10\uff08\u603b\u7edf\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u8d1d\u5b81<\/td>1990.2<\/td>1991.2\uff08\u603b\u3001\u8bae\uff09<\/td>1\/0<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u9a6c\u91cc<\/td>1991.3<\/td>1991.8\uff08\u7acb\u5baa\u4f1a\u8bae\uff09<\/td>0\/5<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1992.3\uff08\u8bae\u4f1a\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/td> <\/td>1992.4\uff08\u603b\u7edf\uff09<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u76ee<\/td>15<\/td> <\/td>      \u5e73\u5747\u8de8\u5ea6<\/td>0\/11<\/td><\/tr>
\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u5730\u533a\u603b\u6570<\/strong><\/td>21<\/strong><\/td> <\/td>\u603b\u5747\u8de8\u5ea6<\/strong><\/td>2\/7<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/strong>\uff081\uff09\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\u89c1\u6ce8\u89e3[5]<\/sup><\/strong><\/sup><\/strong><\/a>\u3002
\uff082\uff09\u51e1\u662f\u53ea\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u6ca1\u6709\u5217\u4e3e\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\uff0c\u9664\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u8499\u53e4\u5916\uff0c\u5747\u4e3a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u3001\u5308\u7259\u5229\u3001\u5e0c\u814a\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5143\u9996\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u541b\u4e3b\u800c\u662f\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u5219\u7531\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u3002
\uff083\uff09\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u8499\u53e4\u8f6c\u578b\u671f\u9996\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u7531\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u6539\u4e3a\u6c11\u4f17\u76f4\u63a5\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u5370\u5c3c\u603b\u7edf\u7531\u5305\u62ec\u8bae\u4f1a\u8bae\u5458\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u4eba\u58eb\u5728\u5185\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u534f\u5546\u4f1a\u8bae\u9009\u4e3e\u3002
\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u662f\u5e76\u4e0d\u96be\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u603b\u662f\u4ee5\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4e3a\u6807\u5fd7\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u8087\u59cb\u2014\u2014\u8fdb\u5165\u7f57\u65af\u6258\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u51b3\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\u201d\u30021974\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u91cc\u65af\u672c\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u53d8\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u5361\u5854\u8bfa\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u8461\u8404\u7259\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u30021975\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u638c\u6743\u957f\u8fbe36\u5e74\u4e4b\u4e45\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u5f17\u6717\u54e5\u6b7b\u53bb\uff0c\u4e3a\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5f00\u8f9f\u4e86\u5951\u673a\u30021974\u5e745\u6708\uff0c\u76d6\u585e\u5c14\u5c06\u519b\u5c31\u4efb\u65b0\u4e00\u5c4a\u519b\u653f\u5e9c\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u542f\u52a8\u4e86\u5df4\u897f\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u30021982\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u52a0\u5c14\u94c1\u91cc\u519b\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u9a6c\u5c14\u7ef4\u7eb3\u65af\u7fa4\u5c9b\u6218\u8d25\uff0c\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u542f\u52a8\u4e86\u30021986\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u4e00\u6279\u4eba\u5728\u53f0\u5317\u5706\u5c71\u5927\u996d\u5e97\u53d1\u8d77\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\uff0c\u848b\u7ecf\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6ca1\u6709\u9547\u538b\u800c\u662f\u9ed8\u8ba4\u5176\u8bde\u751f\uff0c\u5ba3\u544a\u4e86\u53f0\u6e7e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u30021988\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u96c5\u9c81\u6cfd\u5c14\u65af\u57fa\u5c06\u519b\u63d0\u8bae\u4e0e\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u6ce2\u5170\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u63d0\u4e0a\u4e86\u65e5\u7a0b\u30021988\u5e745\u6708\uff0c\u76d6\u8fbe\u5c14\u88ab\u515a\u5185\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u8d76\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u30021989\u5e74\uff0c\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\u7b49\u5730\u7206\u53d1\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6e38\u884c\u793a\u5a01\uff0c\u519b\u8b66\u62d2\u7edd\u5f00\u67aa\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u762b\u75ea\u5c06\u6743\u529b\u4ea4\u7ed9\u4e34\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\uff0c\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u81ea\u7531\u4e86\u30021987\u5e747\u6708\u6d1b\u6797\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u84dd\u76ae\u4e66\u300b\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u52a0\u7eb3\u5411\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u51fa\u53d1\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53f0\u6e7e\u5c71\u56ed\u5c71\u996d\u5e97\u30021986\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u5728\u6b64\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u653f\u5e9c\u9ed8\u8ba4\u4e86\u5176\u5b58\u5728\u3002



\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u603b\u662f\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u653f\u6743\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u5316\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff1a\u65e2\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u653e\u5f03\u5f3a\u786c\u8def\u7ebf\u3001\u9009\u62e9\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u66f4\u8fed\u3001\u5bf9\u5916\u6218\u4e89\u5931\u8d25\u6216\u653f\u6743\u5728\u6297\u8bae\u6d6a\u6f6e\u4e2d\u5d29\u6e83\u7b49\u3002\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u5411\u5916\u754c\u8868\u660e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u610f\u613f\u4ee5\u4e89\u53d6\u4eba\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u5f97\u53ef\u80fd\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u8d77\u521d\u6216\u8bb8\u6bd4\u8f83\u6a21\u7cca\u3001\u4e0d\u4e4f\u81ea\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u7acb\u573a\u5728\u6447\u6446\u3002\u8bf4\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u505a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u786e\u5b9a\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8f6c\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u5927\u7684\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5f80\u6614\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5fc5\u7136\u4ee5\u6807\u5fd7\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u610f\u5fd7\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e3a\u5206\u754c\u7ebf\u3002
\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u6765\u4e34\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u591a\u8d77\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5176\u4e2d\u54ea\u4e00\u8d77\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0d\u540c\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u4ee51975\u5e74\u5e95\u5f17\u6717\u54e5\u7684\u53bb\u4e16\u4f5c\u4e3a\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u4ee51976\u5e747\u6708\u82cf\u4e9a\u96f7\u65af\uff08Suares\uff09\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u9996\u76f8\u4e3a\u8d77\u70b9\u4e5f\u672a\u5c1d\u4e0d\u53ef\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e5f\u8bb8\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u524d\u7684\u7eb3\u7ef4\u7f57\uff08Navarro\uff09\u653f\u5e9c\u6447\u6446\u4e0d\u5b9a\u3001\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u63a8\u884c\u5f00\u653e\u3002\u8499\u53e4\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ee51990\u5e743\u6708\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u5012\u53f0\u800c\u662f\u4ee51989\u5e7412\u6708\u5e95\u6c11\u4f17\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\u6297\u8bae\u4e3a\u8d77\u70b9\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e2a\u522b\u6216\u51e0\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u53d8\u5316\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u660e\u663e\u6539\u53d8\u603b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u3002
\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u4ee5L-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u5373\u4ece\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea6\u5373\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u5212\u5206\u901f\u5ea6\u7c7b\u578b\u5462\uff1f\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u7406\u7531\uff1a\u9996\u5148\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u95f4\u9694\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8a\u957f\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e5f\u5c31\u8d8a\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u662f\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u6700\u80fd\u4f53\u73b0\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8282\u594f\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u5177\u6709\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u9009\u4e3e\u201d\uff08founding election\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u80fd\u5de6\u53f3\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u8bae\u7a0b\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u540e\u9762\u5c06\u8c08\u5230\u5982\u679c\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u9009\u4e3e\u4e0d\u662f\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u65cf\u7fa4\u5206\u88c2\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5371\u9669\u7684\uff1b\u518d\u6b21\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u4e3e\u884c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u8981\u4e48\u4e00\u81f4\u3001\u8981\u4e48\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u8fdc\u3002\u4e4c\u62c9\u572d\u3001\u5e0c\u814a\u3001\u5308\u7259\u5229\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u3001\u8499\u53e4\u3001\u52a0\u7eb3\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5b9e\u884c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6216\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e0e\u603b\u7edf\u540c\u65f6\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u540c\u65f6\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u7acb\u6cd5\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u95e8\u3002\u97e9\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u53ea\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u79bb\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u53ea\u67094\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u8461\u8404\u7259\u9996\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u662f\u5236\u5baa\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u6b21\u5e74\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u5baa\u6cd5\u9009\u4e3e\u4e86\u8bae\u4f1a\u3001\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7531\u4e8e\u5baa\u6cd5\u4e3a\u4ee3\u88681974\u5e74\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u53d8\u7684\u201c\u9769\u547d\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u201d\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u67d0\u4e9b\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u3002
\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u667a\u5229\u4e24\u4e2a\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2a\u6848\uff0c\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u76f8\u5f53\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u662f1992\u5e7412\u6708\u7acb\u6cd5\u9662\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u79bb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u662f6\u5e743\u4e2a\u6708\u4e0e\u4e2d\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u52a0\u7eb3\u76f8\u5dee11\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4f46\u52301996\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u76f4\u9009\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u5c06\u5176\u5f52\u5165\u4e86\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u4e4b\u5217\u3002
\u9700\u8981\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u201d\u662f\u6307\u6ca1\u6709\u9650\u5236\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e1986\u5e7412\u6708\u548c1989\u5e7412\u6708\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u9662\u8865\u9009\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u5206\u522b\u83b7\u5f9712\u4e2a\u548c20\u4e2a\u8bae\u5e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f1987\u5e74\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u89e3\u9664\u515a\u7981\u3001\u62a5\u7981\uff0c1991\u5e74\u624d\u5e9f\u9664\u201c\u52a8\u5458\u6221\u4e71\u65f6\u671f\u4e34\u65f6\u6761\u6b3e\u201d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c1992\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u5927\u9009\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u57281974\u5e74\u30011978\u5e74\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u90fd\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u9009\u4e3e\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4ee51986\u5e74\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u8ba1\u7b97L\u2014D\u8de8\u5ea6\u66f4\u5408\u9002\u3002
\u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u611f\u53d7\uff0c\u6211\u5c06L-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u57282\u5e7410\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u5f52\u4e3a\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c2\u5e7410\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u4e0a\u81f35\u5e7410\u4e2a\u6708\u4e3a\u4e2d\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c5\u5e7410\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e3a\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u8868\u4e2d\uff0c\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u3001\u4e2d\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u3001\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u5730\u533a\uff09\u6570\u76ee\u5206\u522b\u662f3\u30013\u300115\uff0c\u5404\u5360\u5168\u90e8\u4e2a\u6848\u768414%\u300114%\u548c72%\uff08\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u79d8\u9c81\u7684L-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u57282\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u5e38\u89c4\uff0c\u4e2d\u901f\u3001\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u7279\u4f8b\u3002\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u5730\u533a\uff09\uff0c\u5e73\u5747L-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u7ea67\u5e7411\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u662f4\u5e746\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u7ea611\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2a\u6848\u4e2d\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002\u6240\u670921\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u5e73\u5747L\u2014D\u8de8\u5ea6\u7ea62\u5e747\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u957f\u7684\u662f9\u5e74\uff0c\u6700\u77ed\u7684\u53ea\u67094\u4e2a\u6708\u3002
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u539f\u56e0\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5404\u56fd\u8f6c\u578b\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5462\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u7531\u9887\u4e3a\u6210\u529f\u3001\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u542f\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u95f4\u9694\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u957f\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u800c\u5982\u679c\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u7531\u7fa4\u4f17\u8fd0\u52a8\u3001\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u6240\u5f3a\u52a0\u7684\u6216\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u6218\u4e89\u5931\u8d25\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8fc7\u6e21\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u4f1a\u77ed\u4e9b\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u667a\u5229\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u90fd\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u6210\u529f\u3001\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u6253\u4e71\u539f\u6709\u5baa\u6cd5\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u6309\u90e8\u5c31\u73ed\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u3002\u4e0e\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u8461\u8404\u7259\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u5219\u662f\u7531\u5fc3\u6000\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u4e2d\u4e0b\u7ea7\u519b\u5b98\u53d1\u52a8\u653f\u53d8\u542f\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u8499\u53e4\u3001\u8d1d\u5b81\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u6743\u5d29\u6e83\u6216\u8005\u6700\u9ad8\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u5012\u53f0\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u3002
\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u8f6c\u578b\u901f\u5ea6\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u542f\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08modes of transition\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

16\u3001\u542f\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fc7\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5212\u5206\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u3001\u7528\u610f\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5212\u5206\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u627e\u51fa\u8c01\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u542f\u52a8\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u5728\u300a\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u5c06\u8f6c\u578b\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u4e00\u662f\u8f6c\u53d8\uff08transformation\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u4fd7\u5730\u8bf4\u5c31\u662f\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u4e2d\u638c\u6743\u7684\u4eba\u8d70\u5728\u524d\u9762\u3001\u53d1\u6325\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u7ed3\u675f\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u3001\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u82cf\u8054\u7b49\u90fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u201c\u53d6\u4ee3\u201d\uff08replacement\uff09\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5728\u4e27\u5931\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u653f\u5e9c\u5d29\u6e83\u6216\u8005\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u3002\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u7b49\u5c31\u662f\u4ee5\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f00\u542f\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u201c\u4ea4\u66ff\u201d\uff08transplacement\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u5171\u540c\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u5357\u975e\u90fd\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u8bf4\uff0c\u8c08\u5224\u5e76\u4e0d\u9650\u4e8e\u201c\u4ea4\u66ff\u201d\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u4e4b\u95f4\u90fd\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6216\u660e\u786e\u6216\u542b\u84c4\u3001\u6216\u516c\u5f00\u6216\u79d8\u5bc6\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u3002\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f53\u5236\u5185\u548c\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u90fd\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5206\u7c7b\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u533a\u5206\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002[6]<\/strong><\/a>
\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u9887\u4e3a\u7b80\u5355\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4e5f\u6709\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\uff0c\u5e76\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de9\u56fa\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6770\u62c9\u591a\u00b7\u8499\u514b\uff08Gerardo L. Munck\uff09\u548c\u5361\u6d1b\u00b7\u96f7\u592b\uff08Carol Skalnik Leff\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e865\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u53d8\u9769\uff08reform from below\uff09\uff0c\u8feb\u4e8e\u6c11\u95f4\u3001\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u901a\u5e38\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u4e3b\u52a8\u201d\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u667a\u5229\uff1b\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u6613\u53d8\u9769\uff08reform through transaction\uff09\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u63a5\u53d7\u653f\u5e9c\u5f3a\u52a0\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6362\u53d6\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u5df4\u897f\uff1b\u901a\u8fc7\u64a4\u51fa\u800c\u53d8\u9769\uff08reform through extrication\uff09\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f31\u5316\u3001\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8c08\u5224\u8f6c\u578b\uff1b\u901a\u8fc7\u6495\u88c2\u800c\u53d8\u9769\uff08reform through rupture\uff09\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u4e8e\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u5e9c\u57ae\u53f0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u3001\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\uff1b\u4ece\u4e0a\u800c\u6765\u7684\u9769\u547d \uff08revolution from above\uff09\uff0c\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5185\u90e8\u53d1\u751f\u653f\u53d8\u800c\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u3002
\u8499\u514b\u548c\u96f7\u592b\u901a\u8fc7\u5177\u4f53\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u8f6c\u578b\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de9\u56fa\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u201c\u4e3b\u52a8\u201d\u8f6c\u578b\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u662f\u53d7\u9650\u5236\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5de9\u56fa\u6c11\u4e3b\u65e2\u9700\u8981\u6539\u9769\u90a3\u4e9b\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u907f\u514d\u62db\u81f4\u65e7\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u6062\u590d\u63a7\u5236\uff1b\u901a\u8fc7\u6495\u88c2\u800c\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f1a\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5c31\u653f\u6743\u5d29\u6e83\u540e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u5f7c\u6b64\u7684\u4e0d\u5408\u4f5c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u9009\u62e9\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u59a8\u788d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de9\u56fa[7]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5e76\u4e0d\u6253\u7b97\u5bf9\u8f6c\u578b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u4e3a\u6b62\u5173\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u542f\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u4f5c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3001\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u5bf9\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5206\u7c7b\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5426\u5b9a\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8f6c\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65b9\u4fbf\u6211\u540e\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6211\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u6807\u51c6\u4e0e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5b66\u8005\u6709\u76f8\u901a\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u4f46\u89d2\u5ea6\u660e\u663e\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002
\u6211\u5c06\u8f6c\u578b\u5206\u4e3a\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u548c\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u4e24\u5927\u7c7b\u3002\u201c\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u662f\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u6743\u529b\u79e9\u5e8f\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u6253\u4e71\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u201c\u7a81\u53d1\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u3002\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u201c\u5e38\u4efb\u8005\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u548c\u201c\u65b0\u4efb\u8005\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b50\u7c7b\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u5e74\u7edf\u6cbb\u67d0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\uff0c\u5176\u4fe1\u6761\u3001\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u7f6a\u5b7d\u548c\u4e60\u6027\uff0c\u90fd\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u8f6c\u800c\u62e5\u62b1\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u4ed6\u6b7b\u53bb\u6216\u8005\u88ab\u8d76\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5916\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5371\u673a\u65e5\u6df1\u3001\u5bf9\u6297\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u538b\u529b\u589e\u5f3a\u7b49\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u8001\u8235\u4e3b\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u822a\u5411\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u8fc7\u63a8\u52a8\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u201c\u4e0d\u8ba1\u524d\u5acc\u201d\u3001\u9009\u4e3e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u638c\u8235\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u901a\u5e38\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u53d8\u4e0a\u53f0\u7684\u519b\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u6743\u672c\u6765\u5c31\u58f0\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u8fc7\u6e21\u6027\u7684\u3002\u52a0\u7eb3\u7684\u6d1b\u6797\u65af\uff08J.J. Rawlings\uff09\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u5168\u6597\u7115\u5c31\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u6d1b\u6797\u65af\u672c\u4eba\u5728\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u97e9\u56fd\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u5168\u6597\u7115\u6240\u5728\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u6b63\u4e49\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5362\u6cf0\u611a\u5f53\u9009\u3002\u6ce2\u5170\u7684\u96c5\u9c81\u6cfd\u5c14\u65af\u57fa\u4e5f\u5982\u613f\u4ee5\u507f\u6210\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0d\u4e45\u540e\u5c31\u8f9e\u53bb\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u804c\u52a1\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u848b\u7ecf\u56fd1986\u5e74\u9009\u62e9\u8fdb\u884c\u67d0\u4e9b\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u6ca1\u6709\u60f3\u8fc7\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f53\u9009\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u5df2\u662f\u98ce\u70db\u6b8b\u5e74\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5176\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\u674e\u767b\u8f89\u5982\u613f\u4ee5\u507f\uff0c\u8fd8\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u201c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\u7684\u8363\u8a89\u3002
\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u987d\u56fa\u4e0d\u5316\u7684\u8001\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u6b7b\u53bb\u6216\u9000\u4f4d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u7ed9\u5176\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\u7559\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6df1\u906d\u6028\u6068\u751a\u81f3\u75c5\u5165\u818f\u8093\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u76fc\u671b\u7740\u4ed6\u7684\u79bb\u53bb\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u4f1a\u8d81\u673a\u53d1\u51fa\u547c\u5401\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\u6216\u8bb8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u6837\u591a\u7684\u7f6a\u5b7d\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4e0a\u53f0\u524d\u5c31\u8ba4\u5b9a\u5fc5\u987b\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5e0c\u671b\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u8005\u548c\u7b2c\u4e00\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f53\u65f6\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u2014\u2014\u5148\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u7f13\u89e3\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u540e\u4fbf\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u62c5\u4efb\u4e86\u82cf\u8054\u603b\u7edf\u3002\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7684\u5f17\u6717\u54e5\u53bb\u4e16\u540e\uff0c\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u5f53\u4e0a\u4e86\u56fd\u738b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ee5\u82cf\u4e9a\u96f7\u65af\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u7eb3\u7ef4\u7f57\u603b\u7406\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u738b\u4f4d\u53ef\u4ee5\u201c\u4e07\u4e16\u4e00\u7cfb\u201d\u7684\u541b\u4e3b\u7acb\u5baa\u653f\u4f53\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u7684\u76d6\u585e\u5c14\u5c06\u519b1974\u5e74\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\u653e\u677e\u4e86\u8a00\u8bba\u5ba1\u67e5\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u53c8\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\uff1b\u4ed6\u4e8e1979\u5e74\u8f9e\u804c\uff0c\u7531\u81ea\u5df1\u9010\u610f\u7684\u83f2\u683c\u62c9\u591a\u5c06\u519b\uff08Figueirado\uff09\u63a5\u66ff\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5e94\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u5931\u8d25\u81f4\u4f7f\u5de5\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u53c8\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002
\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u5e38\u6743\u529b\u79e9\u5e8f\u8fd8\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u638c\u6743\u8005\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u4ed6\u662f\u8001\u201c\u8235\u4e3b\u201d\u8fd8\u662f\u65b0\u201c\u8235\u4e3b\u201d\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u987a\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u4e86\u7684\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4f1a\u653e\u6162\uff0c\u4f46\u4f1a\u5f00\u8f9f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9053\u8def\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u673a\u6765\u4e34\u65f6\uff0c\u53d8\u5316\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u7a81\u53d1\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u5b50\u7c7b\uff1a\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3\u3001\u4ea4\u53e0\u53d6\u4ee3\u30021991\u5e743\u6708\u9a6c\u91cc\u7206\u53d1\u5b66\u751f\u6297\u8bae\uff0c200\u591a\u9752\u5e74\u996e\u5f39\u8eab\u4ea1\uff0c\u519b\u65b9\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f39\u538b\uff0c\u53d1\u52a8\u653f\u53d8\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u7279\u62c9\u70ed\uff08Traore\uff09\u653f\u5e9c\u30021982\u5e74\uff0c\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u519b\u653f\u5e9c\u5175\u8d25\u9a6c\u5c9b\uff0c\u52a0\u5c14\u94c1\u91cc\u5728\u7fa4\u60c5\u6fc0\u6124\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u58f0\u6d6a\u4e2d\u8f9e\u804c\uff0c\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u865a\u5f31\u7684\u770b\u5b88\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u6301\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u30021989\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u7d22\u975e\u4e9a\u7206\u53d1\u6e38\u884c\uff0c\u62c5\u4efb\u4e8635\u5e74\u603b\u4e66\u8bb0\u7684\u65e5\u592b\u79d1\u592b\u5728\u515a\u5185\u653f\u53d8\u4e2d\u88ab\u83ab\u5170\u5fb7\u8bfa\u592b\uff08Mlandenov\uff09\u53d6\u4ee3\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u88ab\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3a\u9996\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5f88\u5feb\u9677\u5165\u4e11\u95fb\u88ab\u4e00\u4f4d\u6614\u65e5\u7684\u5f02\u8bae\u4eba\u58eb\u66ff\u6362\u30021989\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u7684\u9f50\u5965\u585e\u65af\u5e93\u9762\u5bf9\u8857\u5934\u6fc0\u6602\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u4e58\u5750\u76f4\u5347\u98de\u673a\u4ece\u5c4b\u9876\u9003\u8dd1\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u6614\u65e5\u7684\u90e8\u4e0b\u4f0a\u5229\u57c3\u65af\u5e93\u5ba3\u5e03\u6210\u7acb\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u62ef\u6551\u9635\u7ebf\u201d\uff0c\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u3001\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u30021998\u5e745\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u96c5\u52a0\u8fbe\u7206\u53d1\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6297\u8bae\u548c\u9a9a\u4e71\uff0c\u4ece1965\u5e74\u8d77\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u7edf\u6cbb\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u7684\u82cf\u54c8\u6258\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u63a5\u66ff\u4ed6\u7684\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u54c8\u6bd4\u6bd4\uff08Habibie\uff09\u627f\u8bfa\u8fdb\u884c\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u3002
\u5916\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3\u548c\u4ea4\u53e0\u53d6\u4ee3\u5e76\u4e0d\u5982\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3\u90a3\u6837\u591a\u89c1\u30021974\u5e747\u6708\uff0c\u5e0c\u814a\u519b\u653f\u6743\u5728\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4e89\u593a\u585e\u6d66\u8def\u65af\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u519b\u4eba\u6267\u653f\u56e2\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u5458\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u6743\u529b\u79fb\u4ea4\u7ed9\u6d41\u4ea1\u6cd5\u56fd\u7684\u524d\u9996\u76f8\u51ef\u62c9\u66fc\u91cc\u65af\uff08Karamanlis\uff09\u3002\u51ef\u62c9\u66fc\u91cc\u65af\u8fc5\u901f\u3001\u679c\u65ad\u5730\u63a8\u884c\u4e86\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002\u975e\u6d32\u8d2b\u7a77\u7684\u8d1d\u5b81\u4e5f\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u6848\u4f8b\u30021989\u5e74\u81f31990\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u52a9\u5b66\u91d1\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u88ab\u62d6\u6b20\uff0c\u8d1d\u5b81\u7206\u53d1\u4e86\u4ece\u5b66\u751f\u5f00\u59cb\u3001\u5404\u754c\u6c11\u4f17\u52a0\u5165\u7684\u6297\u8bae\uff0c\u519b\u65b9\u5ba3\u5e03\u4fdd\u6301\u4e2d\u7acb\uff0c\u6297\u8bae\u8005\u3001\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u53ec\u5f00\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u4e34\u65f6\u8bae\u4f1a\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u201c\u6c11\u65cf\u884c\u52a8\u529b\u91cf\u5168\u56fd\u4f1a\u8bae\u201d\uff0c\u593a\u53d6\u4e86\u8150\u8d25\u3001\u7834\u4ea7\u7684\u514b\u52d2\u79d1\uff08Kerekou\uff09\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u514b\u52d2\u514b\u79d1\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7acb\u5373\u53bb\u804c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u53ea\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u201c\u6c11\u65cf\u884c\u52a8\u529b\u91cf\u5168\u56fd\u4f1a\u8bae\u201d\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8f6c\u578b\u5b89\u6392\u3002
\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4ea4\u53e0\u53d6\u4ee3\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3\u8005\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u5171\u4eab\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u6216\u540c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7ec4\u6210\u8054\u5408\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6216\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5408\u4f5c\u5171\u540c\u7ba1\u7406\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u30021989\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u5b66\u751f\u3001\u5e02\u6c11\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\u8fde\u7eed\u6297\u8bae10\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u653f\u6743\u9677\u5165\u762b\u75ea\uff0c\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u80e1\u8428\u514b\u88ab\u8feb\u8f9e\u804c\uff0c\u5361\u5c14\u6cd5\uff08Calfa\uff09\u51fa\u4efb\u4e34\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u603b\u7406\u548c\u4ee3\u7406\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u4e34\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u5927\u9009\u65e5\u7a0b\u3001\u7ef4\u6301\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5b83\u540c\u65f6\u63a5\u53d7\u9886\u5bfc\u4e86\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u7684\u201c\u516c\u6c11\u8bba\u575b\u201d\uff08Civic Forum \uff09\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u540c\u5e7412\u6708\u54c8\u7ef4\u5c14\u88ab\u5373\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e3a\u4e34\u65f6\u603b\u7edf\u3002\u5308\u7259\u5229\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f52\u5165\u4ea4\u53e0\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e4b\u5217\u30021988\u5e74\uff0c\u515a\u5185\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u903c\u9000\u4e86\u638c\u674332\u5e74\u4e4b\u4e45\u7684\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5361\u8fbe\u5c14\uff08Kadar\uff09\u3001\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u904d\u5e03\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u6e38\u884c\u548c\u7f62\u5de5\u4e2d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u4e0e\u53d1\u5e03\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u88ab\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8054\u5408\u4f53\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8bba\u575b\u201d\uff08Democratic Forums\uff09\u6240\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u65e5\u7a0b\u652f\u914d\u4e86\u3002
\u9650\u4e8e\u7bc7\u5e45\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e0d\u80fd\u5bf9\u6211\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u4f5c\u66f4\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u9610\u91ca\u3002\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5728\u7a81\u53d1\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\u56fa\u7136\u662f\u660e\u663e\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\u4e5f\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u2014\u2014\u6709\u7684\u5e38\u987a\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6297\u8bae\u6240\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u97e9\u56fd\uff0c1987\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u6c11\u4f17\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\u8981\u6c42\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u519b\u653f\u5e9c\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u548c\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4fee\u6539\u5baa\u6cd5\u548c\u76f4\u9009\u603b\u7edf[8]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u6211\u540e\u9762\u5c06\u8c08\u5230\uff0c\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\u8d77\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8bb0\u4f4f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u4e4b\u95f4\u90fd\u6709\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u3001\u8c08\u5224\u3002


1987\u5e74\uff0c\u97e9\u56fd\u9996\u90fd\u6c49\u57ce\uff08\u9996\u5c14\uff09\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u5b66\u751f\u3002


\u73b0\u5728\u56de\u5230\u521a\u624d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u542f\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0e\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u56fe\u88682\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u4e0e\u524d\u9762\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u201cL-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u201d\u4ee3\u8868\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56fe\u8868 12.  \u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\uff1a\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0e\u542f\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong>     <\/td>\u56fd\u5bb6<\/strong><\/td>L-D <\/strong>\u8de8\u5ea6\uff08\u5e74\/\u6708\uff09<\/strong><\/td>\u542f\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b<\/td>\u5df4\u897f<\/td>8\/6     <\/td>\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u65b0\u4efb<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u667a\u5229<\/td> <\/td>\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5e38\u4efb<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u53f0\u6e7e\uff08\u5730\u533a\uff09<\/td> <\/td>\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5e38\u4efb<\/td><\/tr>
   \u56fd\u5bb6\/\u5730\u533a\u6570\u76ee<\/td>3<\/td>\u5e73\u5747 7\/11<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u4e2d\u901f\u8f6c\u578b<\/td>\u4e4c\u62c9\u572d<\/td>4\/0<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u52a0\u7eb3<\/td>5\/4<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5357\u975e<\/td>4\/2<\/td>\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u65b0\u4efb<\/td><\/tr>
\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u76ee<\/td>3<\/td>\u5e73\u5747 4\/6<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b<\/td>\u897f\u73ed\u7259<\/td>1\/7<\/td>\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u65b0\u4efb<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u97e9\u56fd<\/td>0\/6<\/td>\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5e38\u4efb<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u6ce2\u5170<\/td>0\/10<\/td>\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5e38\u4efb<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u79d8\u9c81<\/td>2\/10<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u8461\u8404\u7259<\/td>1\/0<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u963f\u6839\u5ef7<\/td>1\/4<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a<\/td>0\/7<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a<\/td>0\/5<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u8499\u53e4<\/td>0\/4<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a<\/td>1\/1<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u9a6c\u91cc<\/td>0\/5<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5185\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5308\u7259\u5229<\/td>1\/8<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u4ea4\u53e0\u53d6\u4ee3   <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b<\/td>0\/7<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u4ea4\u53e0\u53d6\u4ee3   <\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u5e0c\u814a<\/td> <\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5916\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>\u8d1d\u5b81<\/td>1\/0<\/td>\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\/\u5916\u90e8\u53d6\u4ee3<\/td><\/tr>
     \u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u76ee<\/td>15<\/td>\u5e73\u5747 0\/11<\/td> <\/td><\/tr>
\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u5730\u533a\u603b\u6570<\/strong><\/td>21<\/strong><\/td>2\/7<\/strong><\/td> <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u4e0a\u8868\u4e2d\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u517112\u4e2a\u3001\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b9\u4e2a\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5360\u5168\u90e8\u6848\u4f8b\u768457%\u548c43%\u3002\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u6162\u901f\u3001\u4e2d\u901f\u548c\u5feb\u901f\u4e09\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u5404\u5360100%\u3001100%\u548c20%\u3002\u800c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u90fd\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\uff0c\u5360\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u768480%\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3001\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5bf9\u6bd4\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u5feb\u901f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u624d\u80fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6743\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u6c11\u4f17\u7684\u8db3\u591f\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u66b4\u529b\u3001\u6b3a\u9a97\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u957f\u4e45\u7684\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u88ab\u4fb5\u8680\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u653f\u6743\u662f\u538b\u5236\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u7684\u88ab\u4fb5\u8680\u5219\u4f1a\u6084\u7136\u53d1\u751f\uff1b\u4e00\u65e6\u67d0\u4e00\u5bfc\u706b\u7d22\u4e8b\u4ef6\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u653f\u6743\u7684\u865a\u5f31\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u5c31\u4f1a\u5ba3\u6cc4\u51fa\u6765[9]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bb8\u591a\u8c8c\u4f3c\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u5730\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5728\u201c\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u201d\u5c31\u5d29\u6e83\u4e86\u3002
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u5df4\u897f\u7b49\u4e09\u4e2a\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u901f\u5ea6\u4e4b\u6162\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u5e38\u5e8f\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u65e7\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\u79e9\u5e8f\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u6253\u4e71\u3002\u5df4\u897f\uff0c\u5176\u603b\u7edf\u3001\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u662f\u56db\u5e74\uff0c\u4ece1974\u5e74\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5386\u7ecf\u4e862\u6b21\u53d7\u9650\u5236\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u540e\uff0c1982\u5e74\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u624d\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u81ea\u7531\u7684\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\uff1b\u5386\u7ecf\u4e863\u6b21\u603b\u7edf\u95f4\u63a5\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u52301989\u5e74\u624d\u6539\u4e3a\u76f4\u9009\uff0c\u5b8c\u6210\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u88681\uff09\u3002\u667a\u5229\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5206\u522b\u5728\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb9\u5e74\u548c10\u5e74\u540e\u624d\u81ea\u7531\u76f4\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u5730\u533a\uff09\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u6210\u529f\u3001\u5f3a\u5927\u3001\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u524d\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u529b\u91cf\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u6297\u8861\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u540e\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u6297\u4e89\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u8981\u6301\u7eed\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u6216\u53d1\u751f\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u6570\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u519b\u653f\u5e9c\u6700\u521d\u53ea\u60f3\u63a8\u884c\u67d0\u4e9b\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u65e0\u610f\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff1b1984-85\u5e74\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u66fe\u53d1\u751f\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u603b\u7edf\u76f4\u9009\u7684\u6297\u8bae\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u6301\u66a7\u6627\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u9876\u4f4f\u4e86\u30021980\u5e74\uff0c\u667a\u5229\u7684\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u5c06\u519b\u8fd0\u7528\u5168\u6c11\u201c\u516c\u51b3\u201d\u901a\u8fc7\u4e86\u4e00\u90e8\u5baa\u6cd5\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a1988\u5e74\u518d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u6c11\u516c\u51b3\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u519b\u65b9\u63d0\u540d\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u672c\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u83b7\u5f97\u591a\u6570\u7968\uff0c\u5c06\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u5f53\u9009\u201d\u603b\u7edf\u518d\u8fde\u7eed\u4efb\u804c\u4e24\u5c4a\uff088\u5e74\uff09\uff1b\u57281980\u5e74\u81f31988\u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u6240\u53d1\u52a8\u7684\u8857\u5934\u8fd0\u52a8\u88ab\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u5178\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u62cd\u6444\u8fdb\u4e86\u4e00\u90e8\u4e13\u95e8\u8bb2\u8ff0\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u7684\u7eaa\u5f55\u7247\u300a\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u300b \uff08A Force More Powerful\uff09\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u8857\u5934\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e5f\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f1987\u5e74\u89e3\u9664\u6212\u4e25\u4e4b\u540e\u3002

\u524d\u667a\u5229\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u30021980\u5e74\u4ee3\u667a\u5229\u4eba\u53cd\u5bf9\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u7684\u8857\u5934\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u662f\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6545\u4e8b\u3002

\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u542f\u52a8\u8d77\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6297\u8bae\u7684\u9ad8\u6f6e\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u8f6c\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u6162\u901f\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u542f\u52a8\u6240\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u8981\u5c0f\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5374\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6297\u8bae\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5df4\u897f\u7b49\u6848\u4f8b\u6240\u663e\u793a\u7684\u3002\u524d\u9762\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c06\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u201cL-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fd8\u5e94\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201cD-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u201d\uff08D\u662f\u82f1\u6587Democratization\uff08\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff09\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b57\u6bcd\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u6307\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e0e\u884c\u653f\u9996\u8111\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\uff0c\u53ea\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u91c7\u7528\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8981\u7ecf\u5386\u8bae\u4f1a\u3001\u603b\u7edf\u4e24\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u624d\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u662fL-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u548cD-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u90fd\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6216\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728D-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8L-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u3002\u4ece\u521a\u624d\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5224\u65ad\uff1aL-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u8d8a\u957f\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u3001\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u6709\u9650\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u4f1a\u6fc0\u8d77\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u52a0\u5feb\u6539\u9769\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u751a\u81f3\u66b4\u529b\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u5df2\u7ecf\u52a8\u5458\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5c3d\u5feb\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002
\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u601d\u8003\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b64\u6211\u540e\u9762\u8fd8\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u6709\u65cf\u7fa4\u5206\u88c2\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5148\u4e3e\u884c\u533a\u57df\u9009\u4e3e\u3001\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\uff0cL-D\u8de8\u5ea6\u56e0\u800c\u88ab\u62c9\u957f\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u89e3\u4f53\u3001\u8f6c\u578b\u590d\u6742\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c06\u4f1a\u6781\u5927\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u672c\u4eba\u4e0d\u80fd\u8d5e\u540c\u76db\u884c\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u7cbe\u82f1\u4e2d\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u7406\u7531\u3002\u5728\u5df4\u897f\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a1986\u5e74\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u4e3e\u53d6\u5f97\u4e8611\u4e2a\u90a6\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6743\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u8981\u52304\u5e74\u540e\u624d\u76f4\u63a5\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u800c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7adf\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u6797\u8328\u548c\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u5b66\u8005\u8d5b\u56e0\uff08Shain\uff09\u5bf9\u6b64\u9887\u611f\u60ca\u5947[10]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u5047\u5982\u5df4\u897f\u6709\u65cf\u7fa4\u5206\u88c2\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u50cf\u65e5\u540e\u7684\u82cf\u8054\u6216\u5357\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u3002
\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u672c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6839\u636e\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6fc0\u52a8\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u5b8f\u5927\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u8bfe\u7a0b\u6b63\u9898\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u9996\u5148\u68c0\u8ba8\u8fc7\u53bb20\u4f59\u5e74\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u5173\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u2014\u2014\u6700\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u6f84\u6e05\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u4e0e\u8ff7\u601d\u3002
90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eec\u51e0\u4e4e\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u4e13\u5236\u8d70\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u672c\u4eba\u300a\u5927\u8f6c\u578b\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u72ec\u6b65\u5929\u4e0b\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e27\u5931\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u88ab\u53cd\u590d\u8bb2\u8ff0\u3001\u6e32\u67d3\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u8def\u5f84\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u7f20\u7ed5\u7740\u8bb8\u591a\u671f\u5f85\u7740\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u6539\u9769\u7684\u4eba[11]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u5bf9\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f5c\u4e00\u8f83\u5168\u9762\u7684\u68c0\u89c6\uff0c\u770b\u5b83\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u5426\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9009\u62e9\u3002

\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong>
\u585e\u7f2a\u5c14\u00b7\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u8457\u3001\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u8bd1\u300a\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\uff1a20\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u671f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002
\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\u3001\u963f\u5c14\u5f17\u83b1\u5fb7\u00b7\u65af\u6cf0\u6f58\u8457\uff0c\u5b59\u9f99\u7b49\u8bd1\uff1a\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u5de9\u56fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5357\u6b27\u3001\u5357\u7f8e\u548c\u540e\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u6b27\u6d32\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c\u516b\u7ae0\uff08\u5e0c\u814a\uff0c130-138\u9875\uff09\u3001\u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u7ae0\uff08\u5df4\u897f\uff0c166-189\u9875\uff09\u3001\u7b2c\u5341\u4e03\u7ae0\uff08\u5308\u7259\u5229\u3001\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u3001\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c293\u9875\u3001343\u9875\uff09\u3002
\u82f1\u6587\uff1aGerardo L. Munck and Carol Skalnik Leff: Modes of Transition and Democratization: South America and Eastern Europe in Comparative Perspective (Comparative Politics,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong><\/a> Andreas Schedler and Javier Santiso\uff1aDemocracy and Time: An Invitation\uff08International Political Science Review 1998 Vol.19,No.1\uff09.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/strong><\/a> Dankwart A. Rustow, Transitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model<\/em>( Comparative Politics 2 (April,1970): 337-363)\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[3]<\/strong><\/a> Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner\uff1a Democratization in Africa<\/em> (A Journal of Democracy Book, 1999) .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[4]<\/strong><\/a> Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner\uff1a Democracy in East Asia<\/em> (A Journal of Democracy Book, 1998) .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[5]<\/strong><\/a> \u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff1aJuan Linz and Alfred Stepan\uff1aProblems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation<\/em>\uff1bAlfred Stepan\uff1aDemocratizing Brazil<\/em>\uff1bO\u2019Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latin America<\/em>\uff1b Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner\uff1a Democratization in Africa<\/em> (A Journal of Democracy Book, 1999); Rachel M. Gisselquist\uff1aDemocratic Transition and Democratic Survival in Benin<\/em>\uff08Democratization, Vol.15, No.4, August 2008\uff09; Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner\uff1a Democracy in East Asia <\/em>(A Journal of Democracy Book, 1998) ; Larry Diamond\uff0cMarc F. Plattner, etc: Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges<\/em>; R. William Liddle: Indonesia in 1999: Democracy Restored<\/em>( Asian Survey XL (January\/February 2000); William R. Heaton : Mongolia in 1990: Upheaval, Reform, But No Revolution Yet<\/em>( Asian Survey, Vol. 31, No. 1, 1991); Jo\u00ebl Krieger, Margaret E. Crahan: The Oxford companion to politics of the world(2000)<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[6]<\/strong><\/a>\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u53c2\u89c1Samuel Hungtington, The Third Wave\uff1aDemocratization in the Late Twentieth Century, pp.121-163\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[7]<\/strong><\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Gerardo L. Munck and Carol Skalnik Leff: Modes of Transition and Democratization: South America and Eastern Europe in Comparative Perspective (Comparative Politics, Vol.29, No.3, 1997).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[8]<\/strong><\/a>\u53c2\u89c1Sunhyuk Kim: Civic Engagement and Democracy in South Korea<\/em>. (Korea Observer, Vol.40, No. 1,Spring 2009) .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[9]<\/strong><\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Samuel Hungtington,The Third Wave\uff1aDemocratization in the Late Twentieth Century, p144.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[10]<\/strong><\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Yossi Shain and Juan J. Linz\uff1aBetween States: Interim Governments in Democratic Transitions <\/em>( Cambridge University Press, 1995\uff09\uff5083\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[11]<\/strong><\/a> \u674e\u548f\u80dc\u300a\u5173\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u8f6c\u578b\u52a8\u529b\u673a\u5236\u95ee\u9898\u63a2\u5fae\u2014\u2014\u517c\u4e0e\u738b\u5929\u6210\u5148\u751f\u5546\u69b7\u300b\uff0c\u300a\u5317\u4eac\u4e4b\u6625\u300b2012\u5e7410\u670824\u65e5\uff0chttp:\/\/beijingspring.com\/bj2\/2010\/280\/20121024195750.htm<\/a>\uff1b\u300a\u5173\u4e8e\u6539\u9769\u8f6c\u578b\u547c\u58f0\u5f0f\u5fae\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u63a2\u5fae\u300b\uff0c\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e2d\u56fd\u300b\uff0c2012\u5e7411\u670828\u65e5\uff08http:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/ArtShow.aspx?AID=31501<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u82f1\u6587\uff1aGerardo L. Munck and Carol Skalnik Leff: Modes of Transition and Democratization: South America and Eastern Europe in Comparative Perspective (Comparative Politics, Vol.29, No.3, 1997).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

15\u3001\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u5f0f \u8fc4\u4eca\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4ece\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5212\u5206\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u67d0\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u4f1a\u6d89\u53ca\u65f6 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-17"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=158"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":159,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158\/revisions\/159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}