{"id":1618,"date":"2023-07-11T12:26:31","date_gmt":"2023-07-11T16:26:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=1618"},"modified":"2023-07-11T12:26:31","modified_gmt":"2023-07-11T16:26:31","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e4%b9%8b%e9%9f%b3%ef%bd%9c%e4%b8%93%e8%ae%bf%e5%b7%b4%e8%b4%9d%e5%a5%87%ef%bc%9a%e4%b9%a0%e8%bf%91%e5%b9%b3%e8%a7%86%e6%94%bb%e5%8d%a0%e5%8f%b0%e6%b9%be%e4%b8%ba%e6%af%95%e7%94%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=1618","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff5c\u4e13\u8bbf\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947\uff1a\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u89c6\u653b\u5360\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e3a\u6bd5\u751f\u5bbf\u547d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5c06\u4e3a\u6b64\u4ed8\u51fa\u60e8\u91cd\u4ee3\u4ef7"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-title col-xs-12 col-md-10 pull-right\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"body-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-10 col-lg-10 pull-right\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-8 col-lg-8 pull-left bottom-offset content-offset\">\n<div id=\"article-content\" class=\"content-floated-wrap fb-quotable\">\n<div class=\"wsw\">\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\u3001\u53f0\u6d77\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u6e29\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e737\u67086\u65e5\u89c6\u5bdf\u4e1c\u90e8\u6218\u533a\u673a\u5173\u65f6\u79f0, \u4e2d\u56fd\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u5f62\u52bf\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u589e\u5927\u201d\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u201c\u6df1\u5316\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u4f5c\u6218\u7b79\u5212\u201d\u3001\u201c\u52a0\u5feb\u63d0\u9ad8\u6253\u8d62\u80fd\u529b\u201d\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u53d1\u8868\u6b64\u756a\u8bb2\u8bdd\u6070\u9022\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8036\u4f26\u62b5\u8fbe\u5317\u4eac\u3001\u5f00\u542f\u4e3a\u671f\u56db\u592a\u7684\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5916\u4ea4\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u4e09\u6708\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u4e0b\u4e00\u573a\u91cd\u5927\u6218\u4e89\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u80fd\u5426\u6218\u80dc\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1f\u300b\uff08The Next Major War: Can the US and its Allies Win Against China?\uff09\u4e2d, \u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7f57\u65af\u2022\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947(Ross Babbage)\u535a\u58eb\u6307\u51fa, \u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u65e5\u76ca\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6025\u4e8e\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4ed6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u52a8\u4e00\u573a\u95ea\u7535\u88ad\u51fb\u6218\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9488\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u3001\u9493\u9c7c\u5c9b\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u53d1\u52a8\u4e00\u573a\u9488\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u6218\u4e89\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u524d\u666f\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u91c7\u53d6\u679c\u65ad\u884c\u52a8\u5c06\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d8\u6210\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u529b\u91cf\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u662d\u662d\u5929\u547d\uff08Manifest Destiny) \u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947\u5199\u5230\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u76f8\u4fe1\u5728\u4ed6\u6709\u751f\u4e4b\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e00\u573a\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u52aa\u529b\u8ba9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u8fdf\u57282020\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e0b\u534a\u53f6\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u8fce\u63a5\u4e00\u573a\u91cd\u5927\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u7c7b\u578b\u5c06\u6d89\u53ca\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u519b\u4e8b\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6bd4\u901a\u5e38\u6240\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u957f\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u636e\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b7\u67085\u65e5\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u66fe\u5f53\u9762\u8b66\u544a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u666e\u4eac\u4e0d\u8981\u5728\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4f46\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u53cd\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53d7\u5230\u8bf1\u60d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9ad8\u7a7a\u7206\u70b8\u4ee5\u762b\u75ea\u6574\u4e2a\u6218\u533a\u7684\u76df\u519b\u6307\u6325\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6df1\u6d77\u7206\u70b8\u540e\u4ea7\u751f\u5f15\u53d1\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7834\u574f\u7684\u6d77\u5578\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u4e66\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u57282030\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u7206\u53d1\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u8054\u76df\u5c06\u96be\u4ee5\u53d6\u80dc\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u906d\u53d7\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u672a\u8ba4\u771f\u8ba8\u8bba\u6218\u672f\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u7740\u624b\u5efa\u7acb\u540e\u5907\u66ff\u8865\u961f\u6216\u8d2d\u4e70\u989d\u5916\u88c5\u5907\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u653e\u677e\u7684\u8282\u594f\u8fdb\u884c\u65e5\u5e38\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4eff\u4f5b\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6253\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0a\u573a\u80fd\u529b\u53c2\u5dee\u4e0d\u9f50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e00\u5207\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f55\u65f6\u4f1a\u5c06\u6218\u6597\u529b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9996\u8981\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\u3002\u201d 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Forum Pty Ltd)\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u591a\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u673a\u6784\u4efb\u804c\uff0c\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u62c5\u4efb\u8fc7\u7279\u522b\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u66fe\u662f\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4(Office of National Assessments)\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5206\u6790\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u5bf9\u7f57\u65af\u2022\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\u8282\u9009\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8bb0\u8005\uff1a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7206\u53d1\u5168\u9762\u6218\u4e89\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u5417\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947<\/strong>\uff1a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7206\u53d1\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6218\u4e89\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u7684\u786e\u5b58\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u4ee4\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u91c7\u53d6\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u884c\u52a8\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u575a\u6301\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u4e0a\u4f1a\u628a\u53f0\u6e7e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u7701\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u4e00\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u4e0d\u592a\u613f\u610f\u53c2\u4e0e\u6b64\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u575a\u6301\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4ed6\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u51b3\u5fc3\u5f88\u660e\u786e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6f14\u8bb2\u7b49\u90fd\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u573a\u5408\u5411\u516c\u4f17\u548c\u4e2d\u5171\u515a\u5458\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\uff08\u6536\u590d\u53f0\u6e7e\uff09\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u6b65\u9aa4\u6765\u4e3a\u6b64\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u7ea6\u5360GDP\u76847.2%\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8fd8\u505a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\u6765\u5efa\u8bbe\u519b\u961f\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u548c\u6d77\u519b\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u519b\u961f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u822a\u7a7a\u5175\u662f\u8be5\u6218\u533a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\uff08\u6218\u4e89\uff09\u51c6\u5907\u65b9\u9762\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\uff08\u56fd\u9632\uff09\u52a8\u5458\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5b9a\u671f\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u52a8\u5458\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u76f8\u5f53\u4f4e\u7ea7\u7684\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u5c06\u9886\uff08\u4f55\u536b\u4e1c\uff09\u539f\u672c\u8d1f\u8d23\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u51c6\u5907\u9488\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc5\u901f\u664b\u5347\uff0c\u62c5\u4efb\u4e2d\u592e\u519b\u4e8b\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u4e24\u540d\u6700\u9ad8\u7ea7\u987e\u95ee\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u91cd\u7ec4\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u591a\u6b21\u660e\u786e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u56fd\u9632\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u540c\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u6b64\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9996\u8981\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4ee3\u4ef7\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u589e\u957f\u76841%\u52302%\u4e3a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u6700\u8fd1\u63d0\u5230\u8981\u4e3a\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u548c\u60ca\u6d9b\u9a87\u6d6a\u505a\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u8c08\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u8981\u51cf\u5c11\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u5371\u673a\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6076\u52a3\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u8f6c\u5411\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u5305\u62ec\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u975e\u5e38\u52aa\u529b\u5730\u60f3\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u81ea\u7ed9\u81ea\u8db3\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u786e\u5b9e\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e09\u5230\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u8db3\u4ee5\u771f\u6b63\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u8fd9\u79cd\uff08\u6218\u4e89\uff09\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u9694\u79bb\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u671d\u7740\u4e00\u79cd\u5947\u602a\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u518d\u8fc75\u523010\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u5f00\u59cb\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u53f7\u7684\u671d\u9c9c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u9488\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u884c\u52a8\u975e\u5e38\u79ef\u6781\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u80c1\u8feb\u884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\u6700\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947\uff1a<\/strong>\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e09\u5230\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u897f\u65b9\u80fd\u591f\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u5e94\u5bf9\u519b\u4e8b\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u538b\u529b\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4e09\u56db\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u4e5f\u5c06\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u5cfb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f88\u591a\u897f\u65b9\u4eba\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u591a\u601d\u8003\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u8fd1100\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u4f18\u52bf(industrial superiority)\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5236\u9020\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u768425\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u9006\u8f6c\u30022004\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u5230\u4e862020\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5236\u9020\u80fd\u529b\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u5c06\u5236\u9020\u80fd\u529b\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u4e86\u6210\u672c\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6d41\u5411\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002\u8fd9\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5175\u5de5\u5382\u201d(Arsenal of Democracy)\u4eca\u4e0d\u5982\u6614\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u603b\u7edf\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u9700\u8981\u7684\u505a\u662f\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u590d\u5174\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u72ec\u81ea\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u673a\u5236\u3001\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u673a\u5236\u4ee5\u53ca\u76df\u53cb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5408\u4f5c\u7b49\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e2\u961f\u5f97\u5230\u6ee1\u8db3\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u4fe1\u8d56\u7684\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u5f53\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u8bb8\u591a\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u6210\u5458\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u786e\u5b9e\u9700\u8981\u65b0\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u5730\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5f53\u4e1c\u4e9a\u53d1\u751f\u89c4\u6a21\u6218\u4e89\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5171\u540c\u505a\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u673a\u5236\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u6218\uff08political warfare\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u9488\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u76df\u53cb\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u7834\u574f\u6211\u4eec\u3001\u6e17\u900f\u8fdb\u5165\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u4ee5\u5404\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u524a\u5f31\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u624b\u6bb5\u6765\u5206\u88c2\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u64cd\u7eb5\u548c\u80c1\u8feb\u52a0\u5f3a\u9632\u5fa1\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u51b7\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u6b64\u7ed9\u4e88\u8db3\u591f\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u6709\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e00\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u5728\u56db\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u673a\u6784\u4e2d\u79ef\u6781\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u8ba1\u5212\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u5c55\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u884c\u52a8\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e00\u5207\u5982\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8bb0\u8005<\/strong>\uff1a<strong>\u4f60\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u201c\u8054\u76df\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u3001\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u534f\u8c03\u673a\u5236\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ef4\u6301\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u8d62\u5f97\u8fd9\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u201d\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u73b0\u5728\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u5f62\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u6709\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u60c5\u62a5\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u6574\u4e2a\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u3002\u5728\u6700\u9ad8\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e94\u773c\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u4eb2\u5bc6\u65e0\u95f4\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u6fb3\u82f1\u7f8e\u4e09\u8fb9\u5b89\u5168\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb(AUKUS)\u5728\u9ad8\u7ea7\u6280\u672f\u5f00\u53d1\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u5408\u4f5c\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5171\u540c\u76ee\u6807, \u4ee5\u53ca\u56db\u65b9\u5b89\u5168\u5bf9\u8bdd(QUAD)\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u52a0\u5f3a\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u97e7\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u53cc\u8fb9\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5305\u62ec\u65e5\u672c\u4e0e\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u538b\u529b\u70b9, \u7f13\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u5e76\u5ea6\u8fc7\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u771f\u6b63\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u5185\u5bb9, \u5f7c\u6b64\u6276\u52a9\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u89e3\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u64cd\u7ec3\u3001\u8bd5\u9a8c\u548c\u5177\u4f53\u884c\u52a8, \u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u5f15\u5bfc\u548c\u91cd\u6784\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u65b9\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8bb0\u8005<\/strong>\uff1a<strong>\u67cf\u6797\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u548c\u4e1c\u4eac\u5728194 \u5e74\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e86\u4e09\u65b9\u534f\u5b9a(Tripartite Pact)\uff0c\u4f46\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fd9\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u677e\u6563\u7684\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u9632\u5fa1\u6761\u6b3e\u4ece\u672a\u88ab\u63f4\u5f15\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6311\u8845\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u548c\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5317\u7ea6(NATO)\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u52a0\u6b63\u5f0f\u3001\u7d27\u5bc6\u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u9632\u5fa1\u673a\u5236\u5417\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5df4\u8d1d\u5947<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e9a\u6d32\u7248\u5317\u7ea6\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u90a3\u4e9b\u613f\u610f\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u3001\u66f4\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u901a\u5e38\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u8f74\u8f90\u5f0f\u7f51\u7edc(Hub-and-spoke)\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u8f74\u5fc3\uff0c\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7b49\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u4e0e\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u5408\u4f5c\u5df2\u7ecf\u975e\u5e38\u51fa\u8272\u5e76\u4e14\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u4e25\u91cd\u963b\u788d\u3002\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u97e9\u56fd\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u5357\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u548c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u7b49\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u3001\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u97e7\u6027\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u5e76\u613f\u610f\u53c2\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e92\u76f8\u91cd\u53e0\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u52a0\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7248\u7684\u5317\u7ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u800c\u4e14\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u6548\u7684\u8054\u5408\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u6f14\u4e60\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5f88\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u524d\u5728\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u5317\u90e8\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u9632\u7a7a\u6f14\u4e60\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u98de\u673a\uff0c\u8fd8\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u7b49\u56fd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u534f\u540c\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u4e0b\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b, 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datetime=\"2023-07-08T11:49:56+08:00\">2023\u5e747\u67088\u65e5<\/time><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\u3001\u53f0\u6d77\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u6e29\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e737\u67086\u65e5\u89c6\u5bdf\u4e1c\u90e8\u6218\u533a\u673a\u5173\u65f6\u79f0, \u4e2d\u56fd\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u5f62\u52bf\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u4e0d 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