\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u201c8-9-6-4\u201d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u5149\u660e\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8690\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u30021989\u5e744\u670815\u65e5\u81f36\u67084\u65e5\u768456\u5929\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u627c\u6740\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u3001\u5e02\u6c11\u6297\u8bae\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5951\u673a\uff1a\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u5185\u90e8\u5206\u88c2\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4e0b\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u5f00\u653e\u4e86\u5a92\u4f53\uff0c\u5e76\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u9635\u8425\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3001\u534f\u5546\u3002\u4f46\u90e8\u5206\u5e7c\u7a1a\u3001\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u5bb0\u5236\u4e86\u5929\u5b89\u95e8\u5e7f\u573a\u7684\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u8857\u5934\u8fd0\u52a8\u53d8\u5f97\u65e0\u6cd5\u8282\u5236\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u5185\u90e8\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u4e0d\u8c28\u614e\u4e5f\u6fc0\u6012\u4e86\u8fd8\u5728\u89c2\u671b\u7684\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u9996\u9886\u3002 \u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e0a\u534a\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u601d\u60f3\u8f6c\u5411\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6807\u5fd7\u548c\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u89e6\u53d1\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u4e0d\u662f90\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u8457\u8ff0\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u4f59\u82f1\u65f61988\u5e74\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd1\u4ee3\u601d\u60f3\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u300b\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u3002\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u5728\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u665a\u6e05\u4ee5\u964d\u4e2d\u56fd\u601d\u60f3\u6f14\u8fdb\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5316\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u4e3b\u5f20\u897f\u65b9\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5168\u76d8\u5426\u5b9a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6587\u5316\u4f20\u7edf\uff1b\u4ece\u5021\u5bfc\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u826f\u5230\u8981\u6c42\u653f\u6cbb\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5230\u4e3b\u5f20\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u793e\u4f1a\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u4e3b\u5f20\u6587\u5316\u9769\u547d\u3002\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u6700\u540e\u843d\u5728\u5bf980\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e0b\u534a\u671f\u6bd4\u201c\u4e94\u56db\u201d\u53cd\u4f20\u7edf\u6709\u8fc7\u4e4b\u800c\u65e0\u4e0d\u53ca\u7684\u6587\u5316\u53cd\u601d\u70ed\u7684\u53cd\u601d\u4e0a\u3002\u572880\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u5927\u9646\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u6587\u5316\u53cd\u601d\u70ed\u6b63\u5f53\u9ad8\u6f6e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u4f1a\u8010\u5fc3\u503e\u542c\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u201c64\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u3001\u6c1b\u56f4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u572890\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u4f20\u5230\u5927\u9646\u4e4b\u540e\u5374\u6fc0\u8d77\u4e86\u70ed\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u54cd[viii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002 [i]<\/a> Timothy Garton Ash: We the People: The Revolution of 89<\/em>(Cambridge in Association with Penguin Books, 1990, p45).<\/p>\n\n\n\n [ii]<\/a> \u5218\u518d\u590d\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8868\u8ff0\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u201c6-4\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5fc3\u5883\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u4e5d\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6211\u6709\u2014\u79cd\u7a92\u606f\u611f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u5760\u5165\u6ca1\u6709\u8fb9\u9645\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6df1\u6e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f53\u9a8c\u771f\u662f\u201c\u523b\u9aa8\u94ed\u5fc3\u201d\u3002\u201c\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u6c89\u91cd\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8f7b\u677e\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u771f\u7684\u597d\u50cf\u6b7b\u8fc7\u2014\u6b21\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4eba\u751f\u3002\u201d\uff08\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c2\u9875\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u5929\u5730\u56fe\u4e66\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8\uff0c2004\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c5\u7248\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n [iii]<\/a>\u201c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e74\u6765\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d7\u591f\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u201d\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u6ce2\u5170\u8001\u4eba\u57281989\u5e746\u67084\u65e5\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u7740\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u5212\u6389\u4e86\u9009\u7968\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u3002\u53c2\u89c1Timothy Garton Ash: We the People: The Revolution of 89<\/em>, p28\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [iv]<\/a>Bela Greskovits, Political Economy of Protest and Patience: Eastern European and Latin American Transformations Compared, p69 (Central European University Press , 1998).<\/p>\n\n\n\n [v]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Jan Fidrmuc\uff0cEconomic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition<\/em>\uff08European Journal of Political Economy \uff0cVol. 19 (2003) 583\u2013604\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u6b27\u3001\u4e1c\u5357\u6b27\u3001\u6ce2\u7f57\u7684\u6d77\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u672c\u4e66\u7edf\u79f0\u201c\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff091995-1999\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747GDP\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a\uff1a\u6ce2\u51705.78\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229 3.2 3\uff0c\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a _1.96 \uff0c\u6377\u514b1.34 \uff0c\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b 5.02 \uff0c\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a _0.74\uff0c\u963f\u5c14\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9a 6.14\uff0c\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a4.28 \uff0c\u9a6c\u5176\u987f 1.4 \uff0c\u65af\u6d1b\u6587\u5c3c\u4e9a4.2\uff0c\u7231\u6c99\u5c3c\u4e9a4.48 \uff0c\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a3.22\uff0c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b 3.24 \u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u521d\u671f \uff0cGDP\u4e0b\u6ed1\u975e\u5e38\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540eGDP\u624d\u6062\u590d\u52301989\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46GDP\u589e\u957f\u73871995\u5e74\u540e\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u7eb7\u7eb7\u8d85\u8d8a1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [vi]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Oleh Havrylyshyn\uff1a Fifteen Years of Transformation in the Post-Communist World\uff1a <\/em>Rapid Reformers Outperformed Gradualists. <\/em>\uff08<\/em>The Cato Institute. Center for Global Development and Prosperity.Development Policy Analysis. No v e m b e r 9 , 2 0 0 7 , n o . 4\uff08http:\/\/www.cato.org\/pub_display.php?pub_id=8781\uff09\uff09\u3002<\/em>\u5feb\u901f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a<\/em>\u6ce2\u5170\uff0c\u6377\u514b\uff0c\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\uff0c\u7231\u6c99\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\uff0c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u3002\u6539\u9769\u8d77\u70b9\u5f88\u9ad8\u7136\u540e\u5e73\u7a33\u63a8\u8fdb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u5308\u7259\u5229\uff0c\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\uff0c\u65af\u6d1b\u6587\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3002\u4f11\u514b\u7597\u6cd5\u6d41\u4ea7\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u963f\u5c14\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u9a6c\u5176\u987f\uff0c\u5409\u5c14\u5409\u65af\u5766\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3002\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u963f\u585e\u62dc\u7586\uff0c\u4e9a\u7f8e\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\uff0c\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\uff0c\u5361\u624e\u514b\u65af\u5766\uff0c\u5854\u5409\u514b\u65af\u5766\u3002\u53ea\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u6539\u9769\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u571f\u5e93\u66fc\u65af\u5766\uff0c\u4e4c\u5179\u522b\u514b\u65af\u5766\u3002 [vii]<\/a> \u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u6570\u4e0d\u80dc\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u53ea\u5217\u4e3e\u4e24\u7bc7\u6709\u771f\u77e5\u707c\u89c1\u3001\u5341\u5206\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u53cd\u9a73\u6587\u7ae0\u4f9b\u8bfb\u8005\u53c2\u8003\uff1a\u5434\u656c\u740f\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u201d\u6218\u7565\u5417?\u300b\uff08\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u52a8\u6001\u300b , 1994\u5e74 09\u671f\uff09\uff1b\u5b59\u6765\u7965\u300a\u5bf9\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u5171\u8bc6\u201d\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u300b\uff08\u300a\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u300b , 1995\u5e74 01\u671f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [ix]<\/a>\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd1\u4ee3\u601d\u60f3\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u300b\uff0c\u89c1\u674e\u4e16\u6d9b\u4e3b\u7f16\u300a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u7acb\u573a\uff1a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6fc0\u8361\u300b\u7b2c1-29\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [x]<\/a> \u8fd9\u662f\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u672c\u4eba\u5bf9\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002\u89c1\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u7b2c5\u7248\u524d\u8a00\uff08\u9999\u6e2f\u5929\u5730\u56fe\u4e66\u516c\u53f8\uff0c2004\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c5\u7248\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xi]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c\u7b2c6\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xii]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c\u7b2c22\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xiii]<\/a> \u5f20\u704f\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd1\u767e\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u9769\u547d\u601d\u60f3\u9053\u8def\u300b\uff0c\u89c1\u674e\u4e16\u6d9b\u4e3b\u7f16\u300a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u7acb\u573a\uff1a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6fc0\u8361\u300b\u7b2c42-56\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xiv]<\/a>\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u7b2c24\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xv]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c\u7b2c60\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xvi]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c289\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xvii]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c300\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xviii]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c302\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xix]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c294\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n [xx]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c289\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u90fd\u672c\u5e94\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u7684\u6d41\u8840\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u957f\u5b89\u8857\u4e0a\u54cd\u8d77\u4e86\u53cd\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u67aa\u58f0\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u201c8-9-6-4\u201d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56e0\u6b64\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u3002
\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u4e3e\u4e16\u95fb\u540d\u7684\u7167\u7247\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u636e\u8bf4\u53eb\u201c\u738b\u7ef4\u6797\u201d\u7684\u9752\u5e74\u53ea\u8eab\u963b\u63211989\u5e746\u6708\u5f00\u4e0a\u5317\u4eac\u8857\u5934\u7684\u5766\u514b\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a20\u4e16\u7eaa\u4eba\u7c7b\u52c7\u6c14\u7684\u8c61\u5f81\u3002
\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c8-9-6-4\u201d\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u74e6\u6587\u8428\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u6ce2\u5170\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u6839\u636e\u5706\u684c\u4f1a\u8bae\u534f\u8bae\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u201c\u5973\u58eb\u4eec\u3001\u5148\u751f\u4eec\uff0c1989\u5e746\u67084\u65e5\uff0c\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u6ce2\u5170\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\uff01\u201d\u4e00\u4f4d\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u5973\u6f14\u5458\u5728\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u5ba3\u5e03[i]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u82cf\u4e1c\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u9635\u8425\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\u5012\u4e0b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5f20\u9aa8\u724c\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u4e2d\uff0c\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u3001\u4e1c\u5fb7\u3001\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u963f\u5c14\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u90fd\u76f8\u7ee7\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u7fa4\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0b\u4ee4\u5f00\u67aa\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e0b\u4ee4\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u519b\u961f\u3001\u8b66\u5bdf\u62d2\u7edd\u6267\u884c\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7b49\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u56e0\u6b64\u8fc5\u901f\u5730\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u7acb\u5373\u7740\u624b\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u8d56\u4ee5\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002
\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5927\u672c\u8425\u2014\u2014\u82cf\u8054\uff0c\u5176\u8f6c\u578b\u867d\u7136\u662f\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u4e3b\u52a8\u63a8\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u8f6c\u578b\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5d29\u6e83\u3001\u5206\u88c2\u4e86\u3002\u82cf\u8054\u5d29\u6e83\u540e\uff0c\u53f6\u5229\u94a6\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6293\u4f4f\u6709\u5229\u65f6\u673a\u5c06\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\u7f6e\u4e8e\u4f18\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u5ea6\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\u8981\u6bd4\u4e1c\u6b27\u3001\u4e2d\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f2\u6298\u8270\u96be\u3002
\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u201c8-9-6-4\u201d\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u88ab\u8bec\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u52a8\u4e71\u201d\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u8bf7\u613f\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u4e5f\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u2014\u2014\u7eaf\u6734\u800c\u6d3b\u8dc3\u3001\u52c7\u4e8e\u9762\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u3001\u5f3a\u8c03\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u768480\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002\u9547\u538b\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u548c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5185\u5728\u7684\u5fc3\u5883\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u6e05\u6d17\u3001\u6574\u8083\u4e86\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\uff0c\u7acb\u6cd5\u5e9f\u6b62\u4e86\u5baa\u6cd5\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u6e38\u884c\u793a\u5a01\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u548c\u201c\u601d\u60f3\u653f\u6cbb\u6559\u80b2\u201d\uff0c\u5f00\u5c55\u53cd\u201c\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u201d\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ee5\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u9ad8\u8c03\u5f3a\u8c03\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u538b\u5012\u4e00\u5207\u201d\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53ea\u6709\u4e13\u5236\u624d\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u624d\u80fd\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e71\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0d\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u4e0d\u518d\u8c08\u8bba\u8981\u201c\u6df1\u5316\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769\u9700\u8981\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769\u4e5f\u505c\u6ede\u4e86\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5230\u4e861992\u5e74\uff0c\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u2014\u2014\u5efa\u7acb\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201d\u3002
\u201c6-4\u201d\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u601d\u8003\u3001\u91cd\u65b0\u51fa\u53d1\u7684\u3002\u6700\u521d\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u201c\u6709\u2014\u79cd\u7a92\u606f\u611f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u5760\u5165\u6ca1\u6709\u8fb9\u9645\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6df1\u6e0a\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u771f\u7684\u597d\u50cf\u6b7b\u8fc7\u2014\u6b21\u201d[ii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u4f461992\u5e74\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u5357\u5de1\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5fc3\u60c5\u4e5f\u53d8\u5f97\u8f7b\u677e\u3001\u4e50\u89c2\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5411\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u7b26\u5408\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7f\u4e3a\u4eba\u77e5\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u5fc5\u987b\u7acb\u8db3\u4e8e\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002
\u5728\u201c\u75db\u5b9a\u601d\u75db\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u66fe\u7f6e\u8eab\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2d\u768480\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a80\u5e74\u4ee3\u662f\u5e7c\u7a1a\u3001\u6fc0\u8fdb\u3001\u6d6a\u6f2b\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u601d\u60f3\u591a\u4e8e\u5b66\u672f\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8981\u6c42\u81ea\u5df1\u53d8\u5f97\u7406\u6027\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u6df1\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u5305\u62ec\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u897f\u65b9\u601d\u6f6e\uff0c\u9610\u91ca\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u201d\u3001\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u201d\u3001\u201c\u5baa\u653f\u201d\u3001\u201c\u6cd5\u6cbb\u201d\u7684\u6db5\u4e49\u548c\u5f7c\u6b64\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u5374\u9000\u5374\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u660e\u663e\u6bd480\u5e74\u4ee3\u66f4\u6ca1\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u610f\u613f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u628a\u5e0c\u671b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5230\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u52a8\u6539\u9769\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e00\u81f4\u4e3b\u5f20\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u826f\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e74\u590d\u4e00\u5e74\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u538b\u5012\u4e00\u5207\u201d\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u5ba3\u4f20\u4e0d\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7136\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u601d\u8003\u5374\u4e0d\u7ea6\u800c\u540c\u5730\u6253\u4e0a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u8c03\u7684\u70d9\u5370\u2014\u2014\u65e2\u6e34\u671b\u8f6c\u578b\u53c8\u5bb3\u6015\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u4e00\u8c08\u5230\u8f6c\u578b\u5c31\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u52a8\u8361\u3001\u5931\u5e8f\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u8981\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u201d\u3001\u201c\u6709\u5e8f\u201d\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u90a3\u6837\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u201c\u9635\u75db\u201d\u4e86\u3002
\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u201c8-9-6-4\u201d\u4e5f\u5bf990\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u56fd\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5927\u6982\u662f\u4e1c\u6b27\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u4e1c\u6b27\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6743\u5d29\u6e83\u3001\u74e6\u89e3\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u201c\u53d7\u591f\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\uff08\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\uff09\u201d[iii]<\/strong><\/a>\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u6c89\u6d78\u5728\u6b22\u5e86\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u671f\u5f85\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u542f\u52a8\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u5728\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u897f\u65b9\u4e13\u5bb6\u751a\u81f3\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u3001\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u65b0\u751f\u3001\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u4f46\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u514d\u6cae\u4e27\uff0c\u5fcd\u8010\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u6297\u8bae\u3001\u6f2b\u65e0\u8282\u5236\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u3001\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u7f62\u5de5\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u66b4\u529b\u201d \uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u751f\u6d3b\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684[iv]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002
1989\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u6b22\u547c\u8c61\u5f81\u7740\u51b7\u6218\u548c\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u94c1\u5e55\u7684\u67cf\u6797\u5899\u88ab\u63a8\u5012\u3002
\u6539\u97692-4\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f00\u59cb\u4ece\u4f4e\u8c37\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c1995\u5e74\u81f31999\u5e74\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6GDP\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u957f\u7387\u90fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e8680\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u8d70\u4e0a\u4e86\u7a33\u6b65\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u8def[v]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5baa\u653f\u4f53\u5236\u5de9\u56fa\u4e86\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u4e5f\u6700\u7ec8\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6210\u529f\u30022007\u5e74\uff0c\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u52a0\u56fe\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d\uff08Cato Institute\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5965\u62c9\u00b7\u54c8\u592b\u91cc\u7acb\u8f9b\uff08Oleh Havrylyshyn\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u524d\u82cf\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u8f6c\u578b15\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a\u53d8\u9769\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u8981\u6bd4\u53d8\u9769\u8f83\u6162\u6216\u53ea\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6709\u9650\u6539\u9769\u7684\u72ec\u8054\u4f53\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u6784\u3001\u5438\u5f15\u5916\u8d44\u3001\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u8d2b\u56f0\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u660e\u663e\u8981\u597d\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3001\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u4e5f\u66f4\u5c11[vi]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002
\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9a\u4ee5\u5357\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u82cf\u4e1c\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u6210\u5c31\u5e76\u4e0d\u5341\u5206\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u8d1f\u9762\u3001\u7070\u6697\u7684\u3002\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e8e\u6539\u9769\u901f\u5ea6\u592a\u5feb\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u5b66\u4eba\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u3001\u6295\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u72ec\u7acb\u7acb\u573a\u7684\uff0c\u5306\u5fd9\u5730\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u82cf\u4e1c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u3001\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\uff1b\u8fd8\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769\u6a21\u5f0f\u597d\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769\u4e5f\u6700\u597d\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684[vii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002
\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b98\u65b9\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u82cf\u4e1c\u5267\u53d8\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5669\u68a6\uff0c\u5ba3\u4f20\u5a92\u4f53\u5bf9\u4e1c\u6b27\u4eba\u6c11\u81ea\u8c6a\u7684\u3001\u7ed3\u675f\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bb3\u83ab\u5982\u6df1\uff0c\u5c06\u90a3\u91cc\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u7edf\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u52a8\u8361\u201d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5fc5\u987b\u907f\u514d\u6b65\u82cf\u4e1c\u540e\u5c18\uff0c\u800c\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u4eec\u4ece\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u80fd\u8d70\u82cf\u4e1c\u9053\u8def\u3002
\u5f52\u7ed3\u8d77\u6765\uff0c80\u5e74\u4ee3\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\u5317\u4eac\u57ce\u7684\u547c\u558a\u4e0e\u8840\u5149\uff0c\u7559\u7ed9\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u60b2\u58ee\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u82cf\u4e1c\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u672c\u6765\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9a\u4ee5\u5357\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u5374\u662f\u9634\u5f71\uff0c\u632b\u4f24\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u6e34\u671b\uff0c\u6fc0\u8d77\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u754f\u60e7\u3002\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u65ad\u88c2\u3001\u8f6c\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n24\u3001\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2014\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u3001\u201c\u9769\u547d\u2014\u6539\u826f\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u6240\u63ed\u793a\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5316\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u8fd1\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u601d\u8003\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u6c11\u65cf\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u4eba\u8981\u7838\u788e\u4e00\u5207\u3001\u91cd\u5efa\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u4e94\u56db\u201d\u548c\u6587\u5316\u53cd\u601d\u70ed\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\u4f26\u7406\u6587\u5316\u504f\u6fc0\u3001\u5168\u76d8\u7684\u5426\u5b9a\uff0c\u662f\u5fc5\u987b\u6279\u5224\u7684\u3002\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e2d\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f1949\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u88ab\u5f7b\u5e95\u6c61\u540d\u5316\uff0c\u201c\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u88ab\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u201c\u611a\u6627\u201d\u3001\u201c\u843d\u540e\u201d\u3001\u201c\u987d\u52a3\u201d\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u90fd\u88ab\u51a0\u4ee5\u201c\u8fdb\u6b65\u201d\u3001\u201c\u89c9\u9192\u201d\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u819c\u62dc\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6587\u5316\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7cbe\u795e\u5bbd\u5bb9\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u6fc0\u8361\u3001\u5236\u7ea6\u3002
\u6b63\u5982\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u201c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u6587\u5316\u4f20\u7edf\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u2018\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2019\u548c\u2018\u4fdd\u5b88\u2019\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u7d27\u5f20\u4e2d\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u79cd\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u201d\uff1b\u201c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8981\u6c42\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u201d\u5f80\u5f80\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u2018\u4fdd\u5b88\u2019\u5219\u5bf9\u2018\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2019\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u5236\u7ea6\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\uff1b\u201c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8981\u6c42\u5b89\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u2018\u4fdd\u5b88\u2019\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u4e3b\u8c03\uff0c\u800c\u2018\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2019\u5219\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u201d[ix]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002
\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u8bf4\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2019\u548c\u2018\u4fdd\u5b88\u2019\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u7d27\u5f20\u4e2d\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u79cd\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u201d
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5927\u9646\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8fd9\u573a\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2014\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u83b7\u5f97\u6b63\u540d\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u201d\u5374\u88ab\u6c61\u540d\u5316\u4e86\u3002\u50cf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u9677\u5728\u7b80\u5355\u5316\u7684\u3001\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2014\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u5bf9\u5cd9\u601d\u7ef4\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u2014\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u8bba\u662f\u975e\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8fd9\u6b21\u60c5\u5f62\u53cd\u8f6c\u4e86\u8fc7\u6765\uff1a\u201c\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u201d\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3001\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u3001\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u201d\u5219\u662f\u6d6a\u6f2b\u7684\u3001\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ea\u53cd\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u4e0d\u53cd\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002
\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6279\u5224\u201c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u201d\u3001\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u7684\u601d\u6f6e\u4e2d\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u662f80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e24\u4f4d\u5b66\u8005\u2014\u2014\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff15\u5e74\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u8bba\u636e\u201d\u3001\u201c\u53ea\u662f\u8868\u8ff0\u770b\u6cd5\u201d[x]<\/strong><\/a>\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5f55\uff0c\u5374\u662f\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u5012\u5411\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8457\u4f5c\u3002 \u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\uff12\uff10\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4ece\u4e0a\u5230\u4e0b\u90fd\u592a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u201d [xi]<\/strong><\/a><\/strong>\u3002\u201c\u5f53\u52a1\u4e4b\u6025\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201d\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u201c\u8fdc\u4e0d\u662f\u5f53\u4eca\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u5b9e\u6240\u6025\u9700\u201d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5e94\u8be5\u9075\u5faa\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u2014\u2014\u4e2a\u4eba\u81ea\u7531\u2014\u2014\u793e\u4f1a\u6b63\u4e49\u2014\u2014\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u201d\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u987a\u5e8f[xii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5f55\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5176\u6807\u9898\u6240\u663e\u793a\u7684\u3002\u534e\u4eba\u5b66\u8005\u5f20\u704f\u5c06\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u9769\u547d\u533a\u5206\u4e3a\u201c\u5c0f\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff08\u653f\u6cbb\u9769\u547d\uff09\u4e0e\u201c\u5927\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\u9769\u547d\uff09[xiii]<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c\u5bf9\u201c\u5c0f\u9769\u547d\u201d\u6301\u540c\u60c5\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u533a\u5206\u3002
\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u674e\u6cfd\u539a
\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u4ee5\u7fa4\u4f17\u66b4\u529b\u7b49\u6025\u5267\u65b9\u5f0f\u63a8\u7ffb\u73b0\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u73b0\u6709\u653f\u6743\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u884c\u52a8\u201d [xiv]<\/strong><\/a><\/strong>\u3002\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u56fd\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c31\u662f\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5bf9\u5176\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u7701\u624d\u662f\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u53cd\u7701\uff0c\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u9769\u547d\u4e86\u3002\u201c\u6211\uff08\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\uff09\u8d5e\u6210\u82f1\u56fd\u5f0f\u7684\u6539\u826f\uff0c\u4e0d\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u56fd\u5f0f\u7684\u3001\u66b4\u98ce\u9aa4\u96e8\u5f0f\u7684\u5927\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u9769\u547d\u65b9\u5f0f\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u592a\u6c89\u91cd\u4e86\u201d [xv]<\/strong><\/a><\/strong>\u3002\u8f9b\u4ea5\u9769\u547d\u5e26\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u70c2\u644a\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u5927\u5806\u65e0\u5e8f\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u3001\u7834\u574f\u3002\u201c\u8f9b\u4ea5\u9769\u547d\u672a\u5fc5\u5fc5\u8981 \u201d,\u201c\u620a\u620c\u53d8\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u201d[xvi]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u6548\u80fd\u7684\u652f\u67f1\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u53e6\u5916\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3001\u673a\u6784\u66ff\u4ee3\u5b83\uff0c\u201c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53cd\u5bf9\u5b83\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u5b83\uff0c\u653b\u51fb\u5b83\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e0d\u8d5e\u6210\u6253\u5012\u5b83\uff0c\u53d6\u7f14\u5b83\uff0c\u6467\u6bc1\u5b83\u201d\u3002[xvii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u6539\u826f\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8fdb\u5316\uff08evolution\uff09,\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9769\u547d\uff08revolution\uff09\u800c\u8a00\u7684,\u5373\u201c\u4e0d\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7a81\u53d8\u3001\u98de\u8dc3\u3001\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u826f\u3001\u6539\u9769\u3001\u79ef\u7d2f\u800c\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u6b65\u201d[xviii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u201c\u6cd5\u5236\u3001\u7406\u6027\u3001\u6e10\u8fdb\u3001\u5efa\u8bbe\u201d[xix]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u201c\u6539\u826f\u6bd4\u9769\u547d\u597d\u201d[xx]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002
\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5f55\u53d1\u8868\u540e\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u54cd\u3002\u665a\u6e05\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u201c\u9769\u547d-\u6539\u826f\u201d\u4e4b\u4e89\u518d\u5ea6\u88ab\u6fc0\u6d3b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f7b\u5e95\u5426\u5b9a\u9769\u547d\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u6539\u826f\u4f18\u4e8e\u9769\u547d\u201d\u663e\u7136\u6210\u4e86\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u3002
\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8d5e\u6210\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u5df2\u7136\u8fc7\u53bb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u8981\u544a\u522b\u7684\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u8981\u544a\u522b\u7a81\u53d8\u3001\u98de\u8dc3\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0d\u7ecf\u5386\u7a81\u53d8\u3001\u98de\u8dc3\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u4e3b\u5f20\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u3001\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd8\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u672a\u7ecf\u8bc1\u5b9e\u7684\u9884\u8bbe\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6539\u826f\u4f18\u4e8e\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u6539\u826f\u4e5f\u4f18\u4e8e\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u6025\u5267\u7684\u6539\u9769\uff08\u4e1c\u6b27\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u6025\u5267\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u53d6\u7684\uff09\u3002
\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u81ea\u8ff0\u65e9\u57281978\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u6cd5\u56fd\u5f0f\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u82f1\u56fd\u5f0f\u201d\u4e0d\u540c\u9053\u8def\u4e4b\u5206\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u540e\u8005\u4f18\u4e8e\u524d\u8005[xxi]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u5728\u8fdb\u516590\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u53cd\u601d\u6cd5\u56fd\u9769\u547d\u3001\u63a8\u5d07\u82f1\u56fd\u9053\u8def\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u6f6e\u7684\u5174\u76db\u5374\u662f\u5728\u8fdb\u516590\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u601d\u8003\u653f\u6cbb\u8f6c\u578b\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u6e90\u3002
\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u70ed\u70c8\u5730\u8c08\u8bba\u7740\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0e\u6cd5\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u9053\u8def\u662f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u9053\u8def\u662f\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6216\u8005\u7406\u6027\u7684\u72c2\u5984\u81ea\u8d1f\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5baa\u653f\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u9769\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5c81\u6708\u4e2d\u9010\u6e10\u6f14\u5316\u3001\u6210\u957f\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u53cd\u9762\u6559\u6750\u662f\u6cd5\u56fd\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u662f\u6cd5\u56fd\u9769\u547d\u7684\u8840\u8165\u3001\u66b4\u529b\u3001\u6050\u6016\u548c\u52a8\u8361\u4e0d\u5b81\u3002
\u6211\u5bf9\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5173\u4e8e\u6cd5\u56fd\u9769\u547d\u7684\u4e0d\u5c11\u8fd9\u7c7b\u53cd\u601d\u4e5f\u662f\u8ba4\u540c\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u9053\u8def\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u201d\u6765\u6982\u62ec\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5fc5\u987b\u4e88\u4ee5\u8fa8\u6790\u3002
\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong>
Timothy Garton Ash: We the People: The Revolution of 89(Cambridge in Association with Penguin Books, 1990, p45).
Jan Fidrmuc\uff0cEconomic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition\uff08European Journal of Political Economy \uff0cVol. 19 (2003) 583\u2013604\uff09\u3002
\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd1\u4ee3\u601d\u60f3\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u300b\uff0c\u89c1\u674e\u4e16\u6d9b\u4e3b\u7f16\u300a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u7acb\u573a\uff1a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6fc0\u8361\u300b\u7b2c1-29\u9875
\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\uff0c\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b244-307\u9875\uff08\u9999\u6e2f\u5929\u5730\u56fe\u4e66\uff0c1996\u5e74\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\u5f53\u65f6\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u6218\u7565\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u3002\u5927\u7206\u70b8\u6218\u7565\u4e3b\u5f20\u8005\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u8fdf\u7f13\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5bfb\u79df\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u5bf9\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u62b5\u5236\u751a\u81f3\u4f7f\u53d8\u9769\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5efa\u6784\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5e94\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u4e4b\u540e\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4eec\u62c5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6b65\u5b50\u592a\u5feb\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3001\u7ed9\u4eba\u4eec\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u5f20\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u3001\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u4e4b\u524d\u5e94\u5148\u5efa\u7acb\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5f97\u5230\u6700\u5927\u6548\u5e94\u3002
\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8bc1\u660e\u5927\u7206\u70b8\u4e3b\u5f20\u4eec\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u548c\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002\u72ec\u8054\u4f53\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6539\u9769\u901f\u5ea6\u666e\u904d\u8981\u6162\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e5f\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u53ca\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u571f\u5e93\u66fc\u65af\u5766\u3001\u4e4c\u5179\u522b\u514b\u65af\u5766\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002
\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u60ac\u6b8a\uff0c\u5c11\u6570\u5be1\u5934\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\uff08 \u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4f11\u514b\u7597\u6cd5\u6d41\u4ea7\u4e86\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u901f\u5ea6\u653e\u6162\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f7b\u5e95\uff0c\u53ea\u5b9e\u884c\u4e86\u4e2d\u7b49\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n[VIII]<\/a>\u5173\u4e8e\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u6f14\u8bb2\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5f90\u53cb\u6e14\u6709\u4e00\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u300a\u5173\u4e8e\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e4b\u4e89\u300b\uff08<<\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bba\u575b>>2004\u5e74\u7b2c21\u671f\uff09\u3002\u4f59\u82f1\u65f6\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u8ba8\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u9646\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c47\u7f16\u672c\uff1a\u300a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u7acb\u573a\uff1a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e0e\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6fc0\u8361\u300b\uff08\u65f6\u4ee3\u6587\u827a\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c1999\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/h2>\n\n\n\n