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29\u3001\u4e0d\u7ecf\u610f\u7684\u201c\u5171\u8c0b\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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\u6211\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u4eca\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u517c\u5177\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u8272\u5f69\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5177\u6709\u5b9e\u9645\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u673a\u5236\u6539\u9769[xiv]<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c\u5f53\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u53d8\u9769\u5c06\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\uff0c\u50cf\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e00\u6837\u3002
\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u6218\u7565\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eba\u7269\u4eec\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7cbe\u795e\u662f\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u3001\u5f3a\u8c03\u5a01\u6743\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u51fa\u73b0\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5951\u673a\uff0c\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6563\u5931\uff1b\u8f6c\u578b\u5373\u4fbf\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u53cd\u590d\u3001\u7136\u540e\u6216\u8bb8\u9677\u5165\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u50cf\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2d\u4e1c\u56fd\u5bb6\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u4e0d\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u65b9\u5411\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e0d\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u65b9\u5411\u8f6c\u578b\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u60df\u4e00\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u540e\u9762\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5728\u9002\u5f53\u5730\u65b9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002
\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5df2\u57fa\u672c\u5b8c\u6210\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6279\u5224\u3002\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u6df1\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u6216\u8bb8\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u201c\u7834\u5c71\u4e2d\u8d3c\u6613\uff0c\u7834\u5fc3\u4e2d\u8d3c\u96be\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u3001\u8206\u8bba\u6c1b\u56f4\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u542f\u52a8\u8fd8\u662f\u5b8c\u6210\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u601d\u7ef4\u8303\u5f0f\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u201d\u8f6c\u53d8\u6210\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u5c06\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5f53\u4e0b\u6e10\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6211\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u201c\u5927\u8f6c\u578b\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u63a2\u8ba8\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u548c\u987a\u5e8f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u517c\u987e\u52a8\u529b\u673a\u5236\u3001\u8f6c\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\u7b49\u91cd\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u3002
\u4f60\u5c06\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u90a3\u79cd\u4ee5\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u5c0f\u6b65\u5e45\u3001\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u6539\u9769\u624d\u80fd\u5e73\u7a33\u3001\u6709\u5e8f\u5730\u5b9e\u73b0\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u662f\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u63a7\u5236\u677e\u52a8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6539\u9769\u6b65\u4f10\u592a\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5206\u88c2\u3001\u89e3\u4f53\u4e4b\u8651\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u662f\u5c24\u5176\u5371\u9669\u7684\u3002\u6162\u7684\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u7a33\u7684\uff0c\u5feb\u7684\u672a\u5fc5\u4f1a\u4e71\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5949\u884c\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u7740\u5f3a\u70c8\u65f6\u95f4\u610f\u8bc6\u3001\u53ca\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u9769\u3001\u5148\u540e\u987a\u5e8f\u5f97\u5f53\u7684\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e73\u7a33\u3001\u987a\u5229\u5730\u5b9e\u73b0\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u3002

\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong>
\u8427\u529f\u79e6\u300a\u6539\u9769\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u8bd5\u9519\u4e2d\u524d\u884c\u300b\uff08\u65f6\u4ee3\u5468\u520a\u8bbf\u8c08\u5f55\uff09\uff082009\u5e741\u6708\uff09
Daniel Brumberg\uff1aThe Trap of Liberalized Autocracy\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002)
Amr Hamzawy\uff1aGradualism of Reform and Traditional Politics\uff08http:\/\/is.gd\/dvj3M\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[i]<\/a> \u8d3a\u536b\u65b9\u3001\u5f20\u535a\u6811\u3001\u987e\u6653\u519b\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u6765\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f00\u8981\u6c42\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3001\u89e3\u9664\u7ed3\u793e\u7ec4\u515a\u9650\u5236\u3001\u5141\u8bb8\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5f20\u535a\u6811\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u524d\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8fc7\u30022006\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u8d3a\u536b\u65b9\u5728\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u65b0\u897f\u5c71\u4f1a\u8bae\u201d\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u8c08\u5230\u4e86\u591a\u515a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u6279\u8bc4\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u767b\u8bb0\u6ce8\u518c\uff0c\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u54cd\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u300a\u8d3a\u536b\u65b9\u5728\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u6539\u9769\u8d70\u52bf\u201d\uff08\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u65b0\u897f\u5c71\u4f1a\u8bae\u201d\uff09\u5ea7\u8c08\u4f1a\u4e0a\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u300b\uff1ahttp:\/\/is.gd\/dtGcv\uff09\u3002\u4f5c\u5bb6\u987e\u6653\u519b2010\u5e745\u6708\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u4e0a\u64b0\u6587\u547c\u5401\u57f9\u517b\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\uff0c\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u4e5f\u5907\u53d7\u77a9\u76ee\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u987e\u6653\u519b\u300a\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u3001\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u662f\u904f\u5236\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u82e6\u53e3\u826f\u836f\u300b\uff1ahttp:\/\/is.gd\/dtGxy\uff09\u3002\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5206\u5b50\u90fd\u5bf9\u4e00\u515a\u4e13\u5236\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u4f46\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53ea\u542b\u7cca\u7b3c\u7edf\u5730\u8c08\u8bba\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u56de\u907f\u76f4\u63a5\u660e\u786e\u6d89\u53ca\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3001\u515a\u7981\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ii]<\/a> \u3000\u4fde\u53ef\u5e73\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u8bba\u8ff0\u524d\u9762\u5df2\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8fc7\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5468\u5929\u52c7\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u5468\u5929\u52c7\u3001\u738b\u957f\u6c5f\u3001\u738b\u5b89\u5cad\u300a\u653b\u575a\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08\u65b0\u7586\u5efa\u8bbe\u5175\u56e2\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c2007\u5e74\uff09\u3002\u5f90\u6e58\u6797\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u300a\u4ee5\u653f\u6cbb\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u6e10\u8fdb\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u300b\uff08\u300a\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u300b\uff0c2000\u5e74\u7b2c5\u671f\uff09\uff1b\u300a\u201c\u6478\u7740\u77f3\u5934\u8fc7\u6cb3\u201d\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6e10\u8fdb\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9009\u62e9\u300b\uff08\u300a\u5929\u6d25\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u30002002 \u5e74\u7b2c3 \u671f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iii]<\/a>\u3000\u53c2\u89c1\u8427\u529f\u79e6\u300a\u6539\u9769\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u8bd5\u9519\u4e2d\u524d\u884c\u300b\uff08\u65f6\u4ee3\u5468\u520a\u8bbf\u8c08\u5f55\uff09\uff082009\u5e741\u6708\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iv]<\/a>\u53c2\u89c1Michael Ochs\uff1aTurkmenistan: the Quest for Stability and Control<\/em>, in Karen Dawisha and Bruce Parrott: Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (Democratization and Authoritarianism in Post-Communist Societies<\/em><\/a> ,pp.312-313(Cambridge University Press , 1997).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[v]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\uff0cp313\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vi]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\uff0cp323\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vii]<\/a> \u5468\u8235\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u8be5\u4ece\u8bae\u4f1a\u5185\u90e8\u53d1\u6e90\uff0c\u50cf\u82f1\u7f8e\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u8857\u5934\u653f\u515a\u3002\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u524d\u9762\u5173\u4e8e\u5468\u8235\u8f6c\u578b\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u76f8\u5e94\u6ce8\u91ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[viii]<\/a> \u4ee5\u4e0a\u53c2\u89c1Jason Brownlee\uff1aThe Decline of Pluralism in Mubarak’s Egypt\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002) 6-14\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ix]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Daniel Brumberg\uff1aThe Trap of Liberalized Autocracy\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002) 56-68\uff09\uff1bAmr Hamzawy\u3000\uff1aGradualism of Reform and Traditional Politics\uff08http:\/\/is.gd\/dvj3M\uff09\u3002<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

[x]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Daniel Brumberg\uff1aThe Trap of Liberalized Autocracy\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002) \uff1bLarry Diamond: Thinking about Hybrid Regimes( Journal of Democracy Volume 13, Number 2 April 2002)  \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xi]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Daniel Brumberg\uff1aThe Trap of Liberalized Autocracy\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xii]<\/a> \u62c9\u5f00\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5e8f\u5e55\u7684\u662f1974\u5e74\u7684\u8461\u8404\u7259\u5eb7\u4e43\u99a8\u82b1\u9769\u547d\u3002\u7ea2\u8272\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u201d\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5728\u534e\u56fd\u950b\u4e0a\u53f0\u4e0d\u4e45\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u50cf\u5b98\u65b9\u4e3a\u4e86\u62b9\u6740\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6240\u5ba3\u4f20\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u59cb\u4e8e1978\u5e74\u7684\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5341\u4e00\u5c4a\u4e09\u4e2d\u5168\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xiii]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1\u738b\u5929\u6210\u300a\u6e10\u8fdb\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u7684\u73ab\u7470\u68a6\u300b\uff08\u5728\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6559\u8bad\u548c\u672a\u6765\u6311\u6218– \u7eaa\u5ff5\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u4e94\u5341\u5468\u5e74\u548c\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u4e09\u5341\u5468\u5e74\u300b\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\uff0c2008\u5e74\uff0chttp:\/\/is.gd\/fndNP\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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