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\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u7684\u6218\u7565\u3001\u6218\u672f\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u5df2\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u8bfb\u8005\u4ed4\u7ec6\u7814\u8bfb\u76f8\u5173\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u57fa\u6069\u00b7\u590f\u666e\u7684\u300a\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u539f\u7406\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4ece\u4e13\u5236\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u3001\u300a\u81ea\u6211\u89e3\u653e\u300b[xv]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u8f6c\u800c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u4f5c\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u524d\u9762\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u201c\u9769\u547d\u2014\u6539\u826f\u201d\u4e4b\u4e89\u7684\u8bef\u533a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0e\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u76f8\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u9769\u547d\u6982\u5ff5\u5728\u5f53\u4ee3\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u7ed9\u4e88\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

45\u3001\u9769\u547d+\u6539\u9769=\u9769\u6539<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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\u88683.   1989\u5e74\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u5173\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u5934\u6761\u65b0\u95fb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 
2\u67086\u65e5\uff08 \u534e\u6c99\uff09\u534e\u6c99\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0e\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u8c08\u5224
3\u670826\u65e5     \uff08\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\uff09\u82cf\u8054\u4eba\u5c1d\u8bd51917\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u9009\u4e3e
4\u67082\u65e5\uff08\u54c8\u74e6\u90a3\uff09\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\u8bbf\u95ee\u53e4\u5df4 \uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u5361\u65af\u7279\u7f57\u62e5\u62b1
5\u67084\u65e5\uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09\u50ac\u4fc3\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c10\u4e07\u4eba\u7a81\u7834\u8b66\u5bdf\u5c01\u5835
5\u670813\u65e5     \uff08\u5730\u62c9\u90a3\uff09\u963f\u5c14\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8868\u793a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c06\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4f46\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b9e\u884c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49
5\u670813\u65e5     \uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u82f1\u96c4\uff1a\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b
5\u670817\u65e5     \uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09100\u4e07\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6e38\u884c\uff0c\u52a0\u5927\u538b\u529b\u8981\u6c42\u53d8\u9769
6\u67084\u65e5\uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09\u519b\u961f\u8fdb\u653b\u3001\u9547\u538b\u5317\u4eac\u6297\u8bae\u8005\uff1b\u6570\u5343\u4eba\u8fd8\u51fb\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4e27\u751f
6\u67088\u65e5\uff08\u534e\u6c99\uff09\u534e\u6c99\u63a5\u53d7\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u7684\u538b\u5012\u6027\u80dc\u5229\u548c\u515a\u7684\u989c\u9762\u626b\u5730\u5931\u5229
6\u670811\u65e5     \uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fd0\u52a8\uff1a\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u6682\u65f6\u5730
6\u670816\u65e5     \uff08\u5e03\u8fbe\u4f69\u65af\uff09\u9886\u5bfc1956\u5e74\u53cd\u53db\u7684\u5308\u7259\u5229\u4eba\u88ab\u5f53\u4f5c\u82f1\u96c4\u5b89\u846c\u4e86
10\u670815\u65e5   \uff08\u897f\u67cf\u6797\uff09\u4e1c\u5fb7\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u88ab\u540e\u7ee7\u8005\u8d85\u8d8a
11\u67084\u65e5     \uff08\u4e1c\u67cf\u6797\uff0950\u4e07\u4eba\u4e1c\u67cf\u6797\u96c6\u4f1a\u8981\u6c42\u53d8\u9769\uff1b\u79fb\u6c11\u88ab\u8bb8\u53ef\u524d\u5f80\u897f\u67cf\u6797
11\u670820\u65e5   \uff08\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\uff0920\u4e07\u4eba\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\u6e38\u884c\uff0c\u53d8\u9769\u547c\u58f0\u9ad8\u6da8
25\u670825\u65e5   \uff08\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\uff09\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8f9e\u804c\uff1b\u65b0\u515a\u9b41\uff0c48\u5c81\uff0c\u4e00\u5339\u9ed1\u9a6c\uff1b35
\u4e07\u4eba\u96c6\u4f1a\u6b22\u547c\u675c\u5e03\u5207\u514b
11\u670826\u65e5    \uff08\u5e03\u8fbe\u4f69\u65af\uff09\u5308\u7259\u5229\u4e3e\u884c42\u5e74\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u81ea\u7531\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u676f\u845b
11\u670827\u65e5    \uff08\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\uff09\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u4eba\u7ee7\u7eed\u7ed9\u515a\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e24\u5c0f\u65f6\u603b\u7f62\u5de5
12\u67084\u65e5      \uff08\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\uff09\u6297\u8bae\u96c6\u4f1a\u91cd\u73b0\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0b\u53f0
12\u670824\u65e5    \uff08\u5e03\u52a0\u52d2\u65af\u7279\uff09\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u519b\u961f\u5728\u9996\u90fd\u5f97\u624b\uff0c\u4f46\u6218\u6597\u4ecd\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed
 <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u8be5\u8868\u683c\u53d6\u81ea\u67e5\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u94c1\u5229\uff08Charles Tilly\uff09\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c1768-2004\u300b\uff08Social Movements\uff0c
1978-2004\uff09\uff0c\u82f1\u6587\u7248\u7b2c72\u9875\u3002
\u5728\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c1989\u5e74\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u523a\u75bc\u3001\u4f24\u60b2\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u90a3\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u7fa4\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5951\u673a\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u4e0e\u8f6c\u578b\u5931\u4e4b\u4ea4\u81c2\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e1c\u6b27\u88ab\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u5219\u662f\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u8fd8\u8981\u91cd\u73b0\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u624d\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u83b7\u5f97\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5951\u673a\u5462\uff1f
\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u53ea\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u4e00\u662f\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u53cd\u53db\u5bfc\u81f4\u63a7\u5236\u6210\u672c\u5927\u5e45\u6500\u5347\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u96be\u4ee5\u627f\u53d7\u63a7\u5236\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f3a\u786c\u8def\u7ebf\u96be\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ee7\uff0c\u5982\u4e0d\u987a\u5e94\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u653f\u5e9c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u5185\u90e8\u5206\u5316\u51fa\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u5e76\u53d6\u5f97\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7edf\u6cbb\u96c6\u56e2\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u53ca\u65f6\u5206\u5316\u51fa\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u867d\u7136\u5206\u5316\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u6e29\u548c\u6d3e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d6\u5f97\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u542f\u52a8\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5c40\u52bf\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53d1\u751f\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u6743\u74e6\u89e3\u3002
\u8fd9\u91cc\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e00\u4e0b\u82f1\u56fd\u4e00\u4f4d\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002\u63d0\u6469\u592a\u00b7\u4f3d\u767b\u00b7\u963f\u4ec0\uff08Timothy Garden Ash\uff09\u66fe\u957f\u671f\u5728\u4e1c\u6b27\u505a\u8bb0\u8005\uff0c\u662f\u90a3\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u73b0\u573a\u76ee\u7779\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\uff11\uff19\uff18\uff19\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5308\u7259\u5229\u3001\u6ce2\u5170\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u662f\u9769\u547d\uff08revolution\uff09\u4e0e\u6539\u9769\uff08reform\uff09\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u3002\u201c\u6709\u7531\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5185\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u548c\u6839\u672c\u6027\u7684\u3001\u2018\u81ea\u4e0a\u81f3\u4e0b\u2019\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u2018\u81ea\u4e0b\u81f3\u4e0a\u2019\u7684\u3001\u5173\u952e\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u538b\u529b\u56e0\u7d20\u201d[xvi]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u82f1\u6587revolution(\u9769\u547d)\u548c reform(\u6539\u9769) \u4e24\u4e2a\u8bcd\u5408\u800c\u4e3a\u4e00\uff0c\u751f\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bcdrefolution [xvii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u5728\u4e2d\u6587\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u5bf9\u7b49\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e5f\u751f\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u9769\u6539\u201d\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u610f\u601d\u7b49\u4e8e\u201c\u9769\u547d\uff0b\u6539\u9769\u201d\u3002\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7ecf\u7531\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u5979\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u573a\u9769\u6539\u3002
\u3000 \u63d0\u6469\u592a\u00b7\u4f3d\u767b\u00b7\u963f\u4ec0\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\uff11\uff19\uff18\uff19\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5308\u7259\u5229\u3001\u6ce2\u5170\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6
\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u662f\u9769\u547d\uff08revolution\uff09\u4e0e\u6539\u9769\uff08reform\uff09\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u3002
\u3000 \u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u56fd\u5916\u653f\u6cbb\u4f5c\u54c1\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u9769\u547d\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8868\u8ff0\u518d\u6b21\u6d41\u884c\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u300a\u72ec\u7acb\u5ba3\u8a00\u300b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e24\u4e2a\u591a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u88ab\u4fe1\u5949\u7684\u9769\u547d\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u4ee5\u6c11\u4f17\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u884c\u52a8\u593a\u53d6\u653f\u6743\u6765\u5efa\u7acb\u65b0\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u518d\u5ea6\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u201c\u9769\u547d\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u6297\u8bae\u51fb\u8d25\u72ec\u88c1\u7edf\u6cbb\uff0c\u66b4\u529b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5176\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u7684\u3001\u5f53\u4ee3\u7684\u9769\u547d\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u6216\u8bb8\u5e94\u8be5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u52301989\u5e74\u7684\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u7ec8\u7ed3\u5171\u4ea7\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u8857\u5934\u6297\u8bae\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5929\u9e45\u7ed2\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff08\u5929\u9e45\u7ed2\u67d4\u97e7\u800c\u6709\u539a\u5ea6\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f7f\u5f97\u65b0\u9769\u547d\u6982\u5ff5\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u662f\u8fdb\u5165\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u4e3a\u4e86\u63a8\u7ffb\u88ab\u64cd\u63a7\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\u3001\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7b49\u72ec\u8054\u4f53\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6297\u8bae[xviii]<\/strong><\/a>\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u6297\u8bae\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\u88ab\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u73ab\u7470\u9769\u547d\u201d \uff082006\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5219\u662f\u201c\u6a59\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff082006\u5e74\uff09\u3002
\u5728\u7ed3\u675f\u672c\u8282\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u5f15\u7528\u4ee5\u5c06\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u800c\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e9a\u5f53\u00b7\u666e\u5229\u70ed\u6c83\u65af\u57fa\uff08Adam Przeworski\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8bdd\u3002\u666e\u5229\u70ed\u6c83\u65af\u57fa\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u4e27\u5931\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u88ab\u8ba4\u540c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c11\u4e3b\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u771f\u5b9e\u800c\u975e\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u4eba\u4eec\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002\u201c\u5f53\u7236\u6bcd\u4eec\u7ea6\u675f\u7740\u5b69\u5b50\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u4e92\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5f53\u5de5\u4eba\u4eec\u7167\u5e38\u4e0a\u73ed\u3001\u79bb\u5f00\u5de5\u5382\u5927\u95e8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u4e0d\u57cb\u5934\u4e8e\u7ea6\u675f\u5b69\u5b50\u6216\u8c0b\u6c42\u751f\u8ba1\u7684\u4eba\u7531\u4e8e\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u9547\u538b\u6216\u8005\u5438\u7eb3\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u5a01\u6743\uff09\u653f\u4f53\u662f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u2026\u2026\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u7ea6\u675f\u5b69\u5b50\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u79bb\u5f00\u5de5\u5382\u800c\u662f\u5360\u9886\u5de5\u5382\uff0c\u5728\u8c08\u8bba\u653f\u6cbb\u65f6\u4e0d\u662f\u964d\u4f4e\u58f0\u97f3\u800c\u662f\u52a8\u5458\u4ed6\u4eba\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u5a01\u6743\uff09\u653f\u4f53\u624d\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u201d[xix]<\/strong><\/a>
\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\u201d2005\u5e74\u505a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u8fc7\u53bb30\u5e74\u8fd170\u4e2a\u653f\u6cbb\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4f9d\u9760\u7684\u662f\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\uff1a\u572867\u4e2a\u4eba\u53e3100\u4e07\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3001\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u8d77\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u8fbe50\u4e2a\u3001\u591a\u4e8e70%\uff1b\u7531\u638c\u6743\u8005\u81ea\u4e0a\u81f3\u4e0b\u7684\u6539\u9769\u6240\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u53ea\u670914\uff0c\u8fd8\u67093\u4e2a\u5219\u662f\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u4e0b\u5f00\u542f\u7684\uff1b\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u6ca1\u6709\u6216\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4f7f\u7528\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u536040\u4e2a\uff0c\u8bc9\u8bf8\u8fc7\u66b4\u529b\u4f46\u5bf9\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6ca1\u6709\u8d77\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u670920\u4e2a\u3002
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u8d77\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e5f\u6bd4\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u4e0a\u81f3\u4e0b\u7684\u6539\u9769\u8f6c\u578b\u6216\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8bc9\u8bf8\u8fc7\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4eab\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u572814\u4e2a\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u81ea\u4e0a\u81f3\u4e0b\u6539\u9769\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u52302005\u5e74\uff0c\u53ea\u67092\u4e2a\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u67098\u4e2a\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u67094\u4e2a\u56de\u5f52\u4e86\u4e0d\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u66b4\u529b\u768420\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u67094\u4e2a\u6210\u4e86\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c12\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c4\u4e2a\u56de\u5f52\u4e86\u4e0d\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002[xx]<\/strong><\/a>
\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7ecf\u7531\u6539\u9769\u5b9e\u73b0\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\u5219\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6539\u9769\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u548c\u66b4\u529b\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u5c11\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u548c\u4fdd\u6301\u5145\u5206\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u6d3e\u65e2\u4e0d\u80fd\u5750\u7b49\u6539\u9769\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u65f6\u4ee3\u68a6\u60f3\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u8be5\u8ffd\u6c42\u901a\u8fc7\u9769\u6539\u6216\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\u2014\u2014\u5929\u9e45\u7ed2\u9769\u547d\uff08\u6e29\u548c\u9769\u547d\uff09\u2014\u2014\u5b9e\u73b0\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u3002[xxi]<\/strong><\/a>
\u6211\u5728\u524d\u9762\u66fe\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u7b56\u7565\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4e0e\u6210\u529f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7740\u91cd\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u6c11\u95f4\u7cbe\u82f1\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u575a\u6301\u63a8\u52a8\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u5e76\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u5c06\u8ba8\u8bba\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272\u2014\u2014\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u3002

\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong>
\u97d3\u5bd2\uff1a\u300a\u8ad6\u9769\u547d\u300b\u3001\u300a\u8aaa\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u3001\u300a\u8981\u81ea\u7531\u300b\uff0c2012\u5e74\uff0c\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttp:\/\/www.bullogger.com\/blogs\/twocold\/<\/a>
\u8363\u5251\u3001\u79e6\u6656\u3001\u6731\u5b66\u52e4\uff1a\u300a\u518d\u8bae\u201c\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u201d\u300b\uff0c\u300a\u8d22\u7ecf\u300b2013\u5e742\u670816\u65e5
\u57fa\u6069\u00b7\u590f\u666e\u300a\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u539f\u7406\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4ece\u4e13\u5236\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u3001\u300a\u81ea\u6211\u89e3\u653e\u300b          (http:\/\/www.aeinstein.org\/organizations892f.html)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[i]<\/a> \u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u7684\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u5199\u4f5c\u4e8e1989\u5e74\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fd0\u52a8\u88ab\u9547\u538b\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u8868\u8fbe\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u8981\u544a\u522b\u7684\u9769\u547d\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u4ee5\u7fa4\u4f17\u66b4\u529b\u7b49\u6025\u5267\u65b9\u5f0f\u63a8\u7ffb\u73b0\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u73b0\u6709\u653f\u6743\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u884c\u52a8\u201d\uff1b\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u51b3\u5fc3\u2018\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u2019\uff0c\u65e2\u544a\u522b\u6765\u81ea\u2018\u5de6\u2019\u7684\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u4e5f\u544a\u522b\u6765\u81ea\u2018\u53f3\u2019\u7684\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff08\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u7b2c24\u9875\uff09\u3002\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8981\u544a\u522b\u4e00\u5207\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5929\u9e45\u7ed2\u9769\u547d\u3001\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ii]<\/a> Jene Sharp\uff1aSelf-liberation: A Guide to Strategic Planning for Action to End a Dictatorship or Other Oppression,p.2(The Albert Einstein Institution,2009) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iii]<\/a> \u97e9\u5bd22012\u5e74\u521d\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u8bba\u9769\u547d\u300b\u3001\u300a\u8bf4\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u3001\u300a\u8981\u81ea\u7531\u300b\u4e09\u7bc7\u535a\u5ba2\u6587\u7ae0\uff08http:\/\/www.bullogger.com\/blogs\/twocold\/\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iv]<\/a> \u5728\u621120\u4f59\u5e74\u7684\u5f02\u8bae\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u7ecf\u5e38\u542c\u5230\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\u6ca1\u6709\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u7ffb\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7edf\u6cbb\u30022008\u5e74\u521d\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u201c\u66b4\u529b\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u201d\u662f\u6d77\u5916\u6d41\u4ea1\u6c11\u8fd0\u4eba\u58eb\u805a\u4f1a\u65f6\u6700\u7ecf\u5e38\u8fa9\u8bba\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[v]<\/a>\u80e1\u5e73\u300a\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6781\u6743\u4e13\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u5417\uff1f\u300b\uff08\u8f7d\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6743\u53cc\u5468\u520a\u300b\u7b2c33\u671f\uff0c2010\u5e748\u670826\u65e5\u3002http:\/\/is.gd\/GB7BJd\uff09 \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vi]<\/a> Jene Sharp\uff1aFrom Dictatorship to Democracy,<\/em> p.4\uff08Albert Einstein Institute\uff0c2003)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vii]<\/a> Jene Sharp \uff1aThe Politics of Nonviolent Action <\/em>(1973),p.753\u3002\u7518\u5730\u66fe\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u652f\u66fe\u8e0f\u8fc7\u65e0\u8f9c\u7537\u5973\u5c38\u4f53\u7684\u519b\u961f\uff0c\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u590d\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u201d\uff08\u8f6c\u5f15\u81eaJene Sharp\u8be5\u4e66753\u9875\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[viii]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Jene Sharp: The Politics of Nonviolent Action\uff0cpp.8-16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ix]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Jene Sharp\uff1aFrom Dictatorship to Democracy\uff0cpp.21-25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[x]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Jene Sharp\uff1aFrom Dictatorship to Democracy,pp.37-39.<\/em> \u4ed6\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8457\u4f5cSelf-liberation\u5219\u662f\u4e13\u95e8\u8bb2\u8ff0\u5982\u4f55\u5236\u5b9a\u6218\u7565\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xi]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Jene Sharp: The Politics of Nonviolent Action<\/em>\uff0cPart Two<\/em>\u3002<\/em>\u8be5\u4e66\u662f\u8fc4\u4eca\u5173\u4e8e\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u5171\u52063\u5377\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7b2c2\u5377\u4e13\u95e8\u8bba\u8ff0\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xii]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Jene Sharp\uff1aFrom Dictatorship to Democracy\uff0cpp.31-32; The Politics of Nonviolent Action,pp.705-754.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xiii]<\/a>\u53c2\u89c1Jene Sharp\uff1aFrom Dictatorship to Democracy\uff0cp.23\u3001p.27\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xiv]<\/a>\u5173\u4e8e\u8fc2\u56de\u6218\u672f\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1 Jene Sharp: The Politics of Nonviolent Action\uff0cpp.495-496.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xv]<\/a> Jene Sharp\uff1a\u57fa\u6069\u00b7\u590f\u666e\uff08Jene Sharp\uff09\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u662f\u8fc4\u4eca\u5173\u4e8e\u975e\u66b4\u529b\u6297\u4e89\u6700\u6743\u5a01\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u5bcc\u4e8e\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u88ab\u8bd1\u621030\u591a\u79cd\u6587\u5b57\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u5c11\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fd0\u52a8\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6240\u6709\u8ffd\u6c42\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u4ed4\u7ec6\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u5728\u6b64\u5f3a\u529b\u63a8\u8350\u3002
\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u6709\uff1aThe Politics of Nonviolent Action (1973), Gandhi as a Political Strategist (1979), Social Power and Political Freedom (1980), Making Europe Unconquerable (1985), Civilian-Based Defense (1990), and From Dictatorship to Democracy (1993, 2002, and 2003), Waging Nonviolent Struggle: Twentieth Century Practice and Twenty-First Century Potential(2005)\uff0cSelf-liberation: A Guide to Strategic Planning for Action to End a Dictatorship or Other Oppression\uff082009) \u3002
\u4ed6\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u8457\u4f5c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Albert Einstein Institute\uff09\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u627e\u5230\u7535\u5b50\u7248\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e9b\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982From Dictatorship to Democracy\uff08<\/em>\u4ece\u4e13\u5236\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\uff09\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u8bd1\u6210\u4e86\u4e2d\u6587\u3002\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u70b9\u51fb\u8fd9\u4e2a\u94fe\u63a5\u4e0b\u8f7d\u82f1\u6587\u548c\u4e2d\u6587\u7535\u5b50\u7248\uff1ahttp:\/\/www.aeinstein.org\/organizations892f.html\u3002\u4e0d\u61c2\u82f1\u6587\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf7\u670b\u53cb\u5e2e\u5fd9\u4e0b\u8f7d\u4e2d\u6587\u7535\u5b50\u7248\u3002\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u6211\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u6211\u4e50\u610f\u6548\u52b3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xvi]<\/a> Timothy Garton Ash: We the People: The Revolution of 89,p.14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xvii]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xviii]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Charles H. Fairbanks,Jr.: Revolutions Reconsidered<\/em> (Journal of Democracy Volume 18, Number 1 January 2007) .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xix]<\/a> Adam Przeworski,\u201cSome Problems in the
Study of Transition to Democracy\u201d, in Guillermo O\u2019Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xx]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1Adrian Karatnycky and Peter Ackerman\uff1aHow Freedom is Won: From Civic Struggle to Durable Democracy\uff08A special report of Freedom House, 2005\uff09;
 Stephen Zunes : Weapons of Mass Democracy:
 Nonviolent Resistance Is the Most Powerful Tactic Against Oppressive Regimes(2009) (http:\/\/is.gd\/G6CMSE) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xxi]<\/a>\u672c\u7ae0\u6700\u521d\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6743\u53cc\u5468\u520a\u300b\u7b2c52\u671f\uff082011\u5e745\u670819\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u9488\u5bf9\u65b0\u8fd1\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3001 \u5907\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e4c\u574e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f5c\u70b9\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\u660e\u30022012\u5e7410\u6708\uff0c\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u53cd\u653f\u5e9c\u6b66\u88c5\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u5361\u624e\u975e\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u4f3c\u4e4e\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u201c\u773c\u524d\u201d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u636e\u6b64\u8bf4\u660e\u201c\u8fd8\u662f\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\u7ba1\u7528\u201d\u3002\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u63d0\u9192\u90a3\u4e9b\u66b4\u529b\u9769\u547d\u8bba\u8005\u4e0d\u8981\u5bf9\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u89c6\u800c\u4e0d\u89c1\uff1a1\u3001\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u662f\u6c11\u4f17\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\u548c\u5e73\u6297\u8bae\uff1b2\u3001\u6b63\u662f\u5361\u624e\u975e\u5bf9\u548c\u5e73\u6297\u8bae\u8005\u6b8b\u66b4\u7684\u9547\u538b\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u519b\u961f\u7684\u5206\u88c2;3\u3001\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6700\u521d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u662f\u548c\u5e73\u6297\u8bae\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u519b\u4e2d\u5206\u5316\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u201c\u53db\u519b\u201d\u624d\u8d62\u5f97\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u540c\u60c5\u4e0e\u652f\u6301\uff1b4\u3001\u7531\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u5e72\u9884\u3001\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u53cd\u53db\u7684\u519b\u961f\u624d\u514d\u4e8e\u88ab\u6d88\u706d\u7684\u547d\u8fd0\u3002
      \u5e7f\u4e1c\u9646\u4e30\u4e4c\u574e\u6751\u6c11\u7531\u4e8e\u571f\u5730\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8fd13\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u6297\u4e89\u540e\uff0c\u5e7f\u4e1c\u5f53\u5c40\u4e0e\u6751\u6c11\u8c08\u5224\u3001\u59a5\u534f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86\u6751\u6c11\u9009\u4e3e\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u81ea\u6cbb\u673a\u6784\u3002\u5728\u6297\u4e89\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5f53\u9762\u4e34\u5927\u6279\u8b66\u5bdf\u56f4\u56f0\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6751\u6c11\u4eec\u66fe\u62ff\u8d77\u83dc\u5200\u3001\u68cd\u68d2\u5b88\u536b\u5728\u8def\u53e3\u548c\u5bb6\u95e8\uff0c\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u8b66\u5bdf\u8fdb\u6751\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u4e5f\u622a\u53d6\u8fd9\u4e00\u7247\u6bb5\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8bba\u8bc1\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u53d6\u66b4\u529b\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u5411\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5047\u5982\u6751\u6c11\u4eec\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u62ff\u7740\u83dc\u5200\u3001\u68cd\u68d2\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\uff0c\u7ed3\u5c40\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u8fd8\u60f3\u63d0\u5230\u4e0b\u5217\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a1\u3001\u6797\u7956\u947e\u7b49\u6297\u8bae\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u53cd\u590d\u5f3a\u8c03\u201c\u4e0d\u6765\u7c97\u91ce\u7684\u201d\u3001\u8981\u201c\u6587\u620f\u201d\u800c\u975e\u201c\u6b66\u620f\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4ee5\u7406\u670d\u4eba\u201d\uff1b2\u3001\u5f53\u5927\u6279\u8b66\u5bdf\u8981\u5f3a\u884c\u8fdb\u6751\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6751\u6c11\u62ff\u8d77\u68cd\u68d2\u5b88\u5019\u5728\u8def\u53e3\uff0c\u662f\u9632\u536b\u6027\u800c\u975e\u653b\u51fb\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\uff1b3\u3001\u6574\u4e2a\u6297\u4e89\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u548c\u5e73\u3001\u6709\u5e8f\u7684\u3002
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