{"id":2989,"date":"2024-03-21T11:01:31","date_gmt":"2024-03-21T15:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=2989"},"modified":"2024-03-21T11:01:31","modified_gmt":"2024-03-21T15:01:31","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e4%b9%8b%e9%9f%b3%ef%bd%9c%e7%be%8e%e5%86%9b%e5%8d%b0%e5%a4%aa%e5%8f%b8%e4%bb%a4%ef%bc%9a%e4%b9%a0%e8%bf%91%e5%b9%b3%e4%bb%8d%e7%9b%ae%e6%a0%872027%e5%b9%b4%e5%89%8d%e5%85%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=2989","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff5c\u7f8e\u519b\u5370\u592a\u53f8\u4ee4\uff1a\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4ecd\u76ee\u68072027\u5e74\u524d\u5177\u5907\u6b66\u529b\u4fb5\u53f0\u80fd\u529b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-title col-xs-12 col-md-10 pull-right\">\n<h1 class=\"title pg-title\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" enhanced\" style=\"font-size: 21px; font-family: 'Inter var', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 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Paparo\uff09\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\u5c06\u63a5\u66ff\u8fd9\u4e00\u804c\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u65e5\u76ca\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u5468\u8fb9\u6d77\u3001\u7a7a\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u5484\u5484\u903c\u4eba\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u519b\u673a\u4fb5\u6270\u548c\u8d8a\u8fc7\u53f0\u6e7e\u6d77\u5ce1\u4e2d\u7ebf\u7b49\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5c1a\u672a\u8fbe\u5230\u6218\u4e89\u51b2\u7a81\u95e8\u69db\u7684\u7070\u8272\u5730\u5e26\u624b\u6bb5\u5e72\u6270\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u5fc5\u987b\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u65e5\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\uff0c\u56db\u8258\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u8b66\u8239\u7ec4\u6210\u8230\u8247\u7f16\u961f\u66fe\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u5929\u8fdb\u5165\u91d1\u95e8\u7981\u9650\u5236\u6c34\u57df\uff0c\u5728\u505c\u7559\u7ea6\u4e00\u5c0f\u65f6\u540e\u79bb\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u661f\u671f\u4e09\u540c\u573a\u51fa\u5e2d\u4f5c\u8bc1\u7684\u8fd8\u6709\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u8d1f\u8d23\u5370\u592a\u5b89\u5168\u4e8b\u52a1\u52a9\u7406\u90e8\u957f\u4f0a\u5229\u00b7\u62c9\u7279\u7eb3\uff08Ely Ratner\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u8fdb\u6700\u5927\u52aa\u529b\u5c65\u884c\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\uff08Taiwan Relations Act\uff09\u4e2d\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u627f\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c2024\u5e74\u81f32025\u5e74\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u9884\u7b97\u548c\u56fd\u4f1a\u6b63\u5728\u8003\u8651\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u8865\u5145\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u90fd\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u2018\u5bf9\u5916\u519b\u4e8b\u878d\u8d44\u2019\uff08FMF\uff09\u548c\u2018\u603b\u7edf\u63d0\u53d6\u6743\u2019\uff08PDA\uff09\u7684\u56de\u586b\uff0c\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u53f0\u6e7e\u5b89\u5168\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u589e\u5f3a\u5176\u97e7\u6027\u548c\u5a01\u6151\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u201d\u62c9\u7279\u7eb3\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed\">\n<div class=\"media-pholder media-pholder--video \">\n<div class=\"c-sticky-container\" data-poster=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/01000000-0aff-0242-b70a-08dc49512339_tv_b1_w250_r1.jpg\">\n<div id=\"sp-2\" class=\"c-sticky-element c-sticky-element--initialised\" data-sp_api=\"pangea-video\" data-persistent=\"\" data-persistent-browse-out=\"\" data-sp_instance_id=\"2\">\n<div class=\"c-mmp c-mmp--enabled c-mmp--video c-mmp--standard c-mmp--has-poster c-sticky-element__swipe-el c-mmp--s c-mmp--rendered c-mmp--paused c-mmp--can-play\" data-player_id=\"2\" data-title=\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5b98\u5458\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5168\u9762\u548c\u6700\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6311\u6218\" data-hide-title=\"False\" data-breakpoint_s=\"320\" data-breakpoint_m=\"640\" data-breakpoint_l=\"992\" data-hlsjs-src=\"\/Scripts\/responsive\/hls.b\" data-bypass-dash-for-vod=\"true\" data-bypass-dash-for-live-video=\"true\" data-bypass-dash-for-live-audio=\"true\">\n<div class=\"c-mmp__poster js-poster c-mmp__poster--video\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" enhanced\" title=\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5b98\u5458\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5168\u9762\u548c\u6700\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6311\u6218\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/01000000-0aff-0242-b70a-08dc49512339_tv_b1_w650_r1.jpg\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5b98\u5458\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5168\u9762\u548c\u6700\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6311\u6218\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"media-download\">\n<div class=\"simple-menu\">\n<div class=\"inner\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u767d\u5bab\u4e0a\u5468\u4e00\u5411\u56fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u4ea4\u4e86\u884c\u653f\u5f53\u5c40\u76842025\u8d22\u5e74\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u4e2d\u4e13\u95e8\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5173\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u63f4\u52a9\u9879\u76ee\uff1a\u201c100\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u7684\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u65b0\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u2018\u5bf9\u5916\u519b\u4e8b\u878d\u8d44\u2019\u8bf7\u6c42\uff0c\u4ee5\u52a0\u5f3a\u5a01\u6151\u5e76\u7ef4\u6301\u8de8\u53f0\u6e7e\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e88952\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u542b\u4e865\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u56de\u586b\u4e3a\u652f\u6301\u53f0\u6e7e\u800c\u52a8\u7528\u201c\u603b\u7edf\u63d0\u53d6\u6743\u201d\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e93\u5b58\u63d0\u53d6\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u4e3b\u7ba1\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u526f\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u7ef4\u5c14\u739b\uff08Richard Verma\uff09\u5728\u8bf4\u660e\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u65b0\u8d22\u5e74\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u628a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5355\u72ec\u5217\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed9\u4e86\u5b83\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6761\u5217\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u5b83\u91cd\u7533\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5b89\u5168\u534f\u52a9\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u81ea\u7531\u5f00\u653e\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u519b\u529b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u661f\u671f\u4e09\u7684\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u519b\u4e8b\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e24\u515a\u8bae\u5458\u4e5f\u805a\u7126\u4e2d\u56fd\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u7684\u519b\u529b\u53ca\u5176\u5484\u5484\u903c\u4eba\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u5bf9\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u76df\u53cb\u6784\u6210\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c06\u56fd\u9632\u9884\u7b97\u589e\u52a07.2%\uff0c2024\u5e74\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u5e74\u589e\u52a07%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u201d \u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3001\u6765\u81ea\u963f\u62c9\u5df4\u9a6c\u5dde\u7684\u5171\u548c\u515a\u8054\u90a6\u4f17\u8bae\u5458\u9ea6\u514b\u00b7\u7f57\u6770\u65af\uff08Mike Rogers\uff09\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u6c34\u5e73\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u6b63\u5728\u90e8\u7f72\u8d85\u9ad8\u97f3\u901f\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u7b2c\u4e94\u4ee3\u6218\u6597\u673a\u7b49\u73b0\u4ee3\u519b\u4e8b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5efa\u8bbe\u786e\u5b9e\u4ee4\u4eba\u5173\u5207\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u5173\u5207\u7684\u662f\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u6108\u6765\u6108\u591a\u7684\u6311\u8845\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u65b0\u7684\u9632\u5fa1\u534f\u8bae\u548c\u5728\u5916\u56fd\u5efa\u7acb\u519b\u4e8b\u57fa\u5730\u6765\u6269\u5927\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9c81\u83bd\u7684\u8239\u53ea\u548c\u98de\u673a\u62e6\u622a\u6765\u5a01\u80c1\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ee5\u519b\u4e8b\u6f14\u4e60\u3001\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5929\u4fb5\u6270\u53f0\u6e7e\u7a7a\u57df\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5c9b\u8fdb\u884c\u6a21\u62df\u5165\u4fb5\u884c\u52a8\u6765\u80c1\u8feb\u53f0\u6e7e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u522b\u65e0\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u8ba4\u771f\u5bf9\u5f85\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u575a\u51b3\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u201d\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u963f\u594e\u5229\u8bfa\u5c06\u519b\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u81ea2020\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u589e\u52a0\u4e86400\u591a\u67b6\u6218\u6597\u673a\u548c20\u8258\u4e3b\u8981\u6218\u8230\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u548c\u5de1\u822a\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u500d\u3002\u4ed6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u4e8616%\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u8d85\u8fc72230\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u963f\u594e\u5229\u8bfa\u8c08\u5230\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u6267\u884c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5a01\u6151\u5021\u8bae\uff08Pacific Deterrence Initiatives, PDI\uff09\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u9700\u8981\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u65b0\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6269\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u6700\u5168\u9762\u548c\u4e25\u5cfb\u6311\u6218\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u52a9\u7406\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u62c9\u7279\u7eb3\u5728\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6784\u6210\u201c\u6700\u5168\u9762\u548c\u6700\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u6311\u6218\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u57282022\u5e74\uff0c\u56fd\u9632\u6218\u7565\u628a\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u8ba4\u5b9a\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u9996\u8981\u6b65\u8c03\u6311\u6218\uff08pacing 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