{"id":3278,"date":"2024-05-12T09:16:27","date_gmt":"2024-05-12T13:16:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=3278"},"modified":"2024-05-12T09:16:27","modified_gmt":"2024-05-12T13:16:27","slug":"%e6%a8%8a%e4%b8%9c%e5%ae%81%e3%80%81%e7%8e%8b%e5%b9%b3%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%93%e8%ae%bf%e5%86%9b%e5%8f%b2%e4%b8%93%e5%ae%b6%e6%b1%89%e6%a3%ae%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e6%98%af%e4%b9%8c%e6%88%98%e6%9c%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=3278","title":{"rendered":"\u6a0a\u4e1c\u5b81\u3001\u738b\u5e73\uff1a\u4e13\u8bbf\u519b\u53f2\u4e13\u5bb6\u6c49\u68ee\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e4c\u6218\u6700\u5927\u8d62\u5bb6\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-title col-xs-12 col-md-10 pull-right\">\n<h1 class=\"title pg-title\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" enhanced\" style=\"font-family: 'Inter var', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; letter-spacing: -0.015em;\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/01000000-0aff-0242-006a-08dc71377eea_w1023_r1_s.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"body-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-10 col-lg-10 pull-right\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-8 col-lg-8 pull-left bottom-offset content-offset\">\n<div id=\"article-content\" class=\"content-floated-wrap fb-quotable\">\n<div class=\"wsw\">\n<p>\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u9677\u5165\u6301\u4e45\u6218\uff0c\u521a\u8fde\u4efb\u5c31\u804c\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u666e\u4eac\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e3e\u884c\u201c\u975e\u6218\u7565\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u6f14\u4e60\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u8bbf\u95ee\u5317\u4eac\u4e0e\u4e2d\u5171\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f1a\u9762\uff0c\u521a\u7ed3\u675f\u8bbf\u6b27\u7684\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5219\u662f\u5728\u5df4\u9ece\u5021\u8bae\u5965\u8fd0\u505c\u706b\u3002\u6709\u4e13\u5bb6\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6700\u5927\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u201c\u80e1\u4f5b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d\uff08Hoover Institution\uff09\u519b\u4e8b\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u66fe\u7ecf\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u5b66\u9662\uff08US Naval Academy\uff09\u4efb\u6559\u7684\u7ef4\u514b\u591a\u00b7\u6234\u7ef4\u65af\u00b7\u6c49\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\uff08Victor Davis Hanson\uff09\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u300a\u7eb5\u6df1\u89c6\u89d2\u300b\u4e13\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u3001\u4fc4\u3001\u4f0a\u201c\u65b0\u8f74\u5fc3\u201d\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4ee4\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u6709\u673a\u53ef\u4e58\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e5f\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u5230\u4eca\u5e7411\u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u524d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u53f0\u52a8\u6b66\u7684\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u4e4b\u7a97\u201d\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u96be\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u53f0\u6d77\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c49\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u63d0\u51fa\u8fd9\u79cd\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u3002\u66fe\u57282022\u5e74\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u8a00\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5fc5\u5b9a\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u52a8\u624b\u7684\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7c73\u5c14\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08John Mearsheimer\uff09\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e24\u5e74\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u573a\u6d88\u8017\u6218\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u4e0e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4e00\u8d77\u8f93\u6389\u8fd9\u573a\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u624d\u662f\u6700\u5927\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u88ab\u524a\u5f31 \u7f8e\u56fd\u5de6\u652f\u53f3\u7ecc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6c49\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u5206\u6790\u547c\u5e94\u7c73\u5c14\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u201c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u9886\u571f\u9762\u79ef\u53ea\u6709\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u768430\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u768410\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0d\u5230\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u9677\u5165\u4e00\u573a\u6301\u4e45\u6218\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u80dc\u3002\u201d 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Missile\uff09\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u5ef6\u8fdf8\u5e74\u65e0\u6cd5\u51c6\u65f6\u4ea4\u4ed8\uff0c\u7231\u56fd\u8005\u5bfc\u5f39\u4e5f\u5ef6\u8fdf\u4ea4\u4ed8\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8d62\u4e86\uff0c\u5360\u9886\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u770b\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u5982\u4f55\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u2018\u96be\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u2019\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u2018\u673a\u4f1a\u4e4b\u7a97\u2019\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u60f3\uff1a\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e0b\u5468\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5f31\u8fd8\u662f\u66f4\u5f3a\uff1f\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u6b63\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u4f5c\u6218\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u8fdb\u884c\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5982\u679c\u653b\u53f0\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u822a\u9053\u65b9\u9762\u4f1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u53cd\u5e94\uff1f\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u4f1a\u8896\u624b\u65c1\u89c2\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e2\u7ed3\u4e00\u81f4\u8bd5\u56fe\u963b\u6b62\u53f0\u6d77\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u201d 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College\uff09\u7684\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u6559\u6388\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8d62\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u8f93\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u5728\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\uff08Bloomberg\uff09\u64b0\u6587\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5916\u754c\u5bf9\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f55\u65f6\u51fa\u5175\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u7126\u8651\u662f\u5426\u6210\u771f\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u6781\u5927\u5730\u635f\u5bb3\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u4eba\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u548c\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u76f4\u52aa\u529b\u5e0c\u671b\u963b\u6b62\u7684\u3002\u800c\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u53f0\u6d77\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u524d\u666f\u6fc0\u53d1\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u4e0a\u652f\u6301\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u8eab\u5728\u4e4c\u4fc4\u6218\u4e89\u626e\u6f14\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u6b63\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u56fd\u9645\u5f62\u8c61\u53ca\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u51e0\u4e4e\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8fd1\u65e5\u8bbf\u95ee\u6b27\u6d32\u65f6\u6700\u53d7\u5230\u5404\u754c\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5317\u4eac\u5728\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u4e0a\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u4f1a\u89c1\u6cd5\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9a6c\u514b\u9f99\u4e4b\u540e\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8fa9\u62a4\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5236\u9020\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5f53\u4e8b\u65b9\u3001\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u53cd\u5bf9\u5229\u7528\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5371\u673a\u7529\u9505\u3001\u62b9\u9ed1\u7b2c\u4e09\u56fd\uff0c\u717d\u52a8\u65b0\u51b7\u6218\u3002\u201d \u4e0d\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u667a\u5e93\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u4e13\u5bb6\u9ea6\u827e\u7ef4\uff08Lily McElwee\uff09\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u81ea\u7531\u4e9a\u6d32\u7535\u53f0\u8bbf\u95ee\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8bb8\u591a\u5148\u8fdb\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u6b63\u5728\u5c0f\u5fc3\u8c28\u614e\u5730\u5173\u6ce8\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6218\u7565\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u53ef\u5426\u8ba4\u5730\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5b9a\u4f4d\u65e0\u7591\u4f24\u5bb3\u4e86\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u666e\u4eac\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u4e0d\u65ad \u6050\u5f15\u7206\u4e09\u6218\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u666e\u4eac\u5728\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8bbf\u6b27\u671f\u95f4\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e3e\u884c\u201c\u975e\u6218\u7565\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u6f14\u4e60\u201d\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u7c7b\u518d\u6b21\u9762\u4e34\u6838\u6218\u8fb9\u7f18\uff1f\u6c49\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\u5728\u4ed6\u521a\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u4e07\u7269\u7ec8\u7ed3\u300b\uff08The End of Everything\uff09\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f15\u7528\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u66fe\u7ecf\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u707e\u96be\u7684\u56db\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5bf9\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u5f15\u7206\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u6572\u54cd\u8b66\u949f\u3002\u6c49\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u4e8c\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6ca1\u6709\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u6838\u6b66\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u51b7\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u548c\u51b7\u6218\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u77e5\u5230\uff0c\u5317\u7ea6\u3001 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\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7b26\u5408\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u5230\u672a\u6765\u768410\u5e74\u3001 12\u5e74\u751a\u81f315\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u5b9e\u73b0\u2018\u6838\u5747\u52bf\u2019\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5728\u90a3\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u505a\u5f97\u5230\u3002\u201d\u6c49\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\u8b66\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e60\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6b65\u5e0c\u7279\u52d2\u3001\u58a8\u7d22\u91cc\u5c3c\u540e\u5c18<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u666e\u4eac\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u5317\u4eac\u8bbf\u95ee\u5e76\u4e0e\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f1a\u9762\u3002\u88ab\u95ee\u5230\u666e\u4eac\u4e0e\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u82e5\u7ee7\u7eed\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u4e0e\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\u519b\u4e8b\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u91ce\u5fc3\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c \u5982\u540c\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u8f74\u5fc3\u56fd&#8211;\u5e0c\u7279\u52d2\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001 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Danica Haines\uff09\u8fd1\u65e5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u4e2d\u4fc4\u8054\u5408\u519b\u6f14\u6269\u53ca\u53f0\u6d77\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u5206\u88c2\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u76df\u53cb\u3002\u6c49\u68ee\u535a\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u4fc4\u53ef\u80fd\u8bef\u5224\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u5176\u6b27\u4e9a\u76df\u53cb\u771f\u6b63\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5ba2\u89c2\u770b\u5f85\u5e76\u5199\u5728\u7eb8\u4e0a\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u9646\u519b\u548c\u7a7a\u519b\u3001\u8fd9\u662f\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u9646\u519b\u548c\u7a7a\u519b\u3001\u8fd9\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u9646\u519b\u548c\u7a7a\u519b\u3001\u8fd9\u662f\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u9646\u519b\u548c\u7a7a\u519b\u3001\u8fd9\u662f25\u4e2a\u5317\u7ea6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9646\u519b\u548c\u7a7a\u519b\u3001\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9646\u519b\u3001 \u7a7a\u519b\u548c\u6d77\u519b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6218\u4e89\u65f6\u7684\u4eba\u529b\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u50cf\u662f\u5370\u5ea6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u4f17\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5317\u7ea6\u56fd\u5bb6\u62e5\u6709\u7684 8000\u591a\u679a\u53ef\u8fd0\u8f7d\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u53cd\u5bfc\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5317\u7ea6\u62e5\u670990% \u7684\u822a\u7a7a\u6bcd\u8230\u9ad8\u7aef\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5dee\u8ddd\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd8\u6ca1\u5230\u90a3\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6240\u4f5c\u6240\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b63\u5c06\u4e0d\u613f\u6b66\u88c5\u6216\u4e0d\u613f\u4fdd\u536b\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u679c\u91ce\u5fc3\u8fc7\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f5c\u529b\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002\u201d \u4ed6\u4eec\u75af\u4e86\u624d\u4f1a\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89 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