{"id":5919,"date":"2025-11-17T10:03:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T15:03:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=5919"},"modified":"2025-11-17T10:04:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T15:04:30","slug":"%e5%a4%a7%e8%a1%9b%ef%bc%8e%e6%a1%91%e6%a0%bc-%e6%96%b0%e5%86%b7%e6%88%b0%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e5%b4%9b%e8%b5%b7%e3%80%81%e4%bf%84%e5%9c%8b%e4%be%b5%e7%95%a5%e3%80%81%e8%88%87%e7%be%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=5919","title":{"rendered":"\u5927\u885b\uff0e\u6851\u683c | \u65b0\u51b7\u6230\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u3001\u4fc4\u570b\u4fb5\u7565\u3001\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u634d\u885b\u897f\u65b9\u4e4b\u6230"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-header\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Post header\">\n<div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-paddingBottom-16 pc-reset\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Post UFI\">\n<div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-16 pc-paddingTop-16 pc-paddingBottom-16 pc-justifyContent-space-between pc-alignItems-center pc-reset flex-grow-rzmknG border-top-detail-themed-k9TZAY border-bottom-detail-themed-Ua9186 post-ufi\">\n<div class=\"pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"available-content\">\n<div class=\"body markup\" dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 1456w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"100vw\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5-vB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic 1456w\" alt=\"\" width=\"794\" height=\"1010\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/b1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1010,&quot;width&quot;:794,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:121103,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/bostonreviewofbooks.substack.com\/i\/178887794?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1ed6676-2913-4be4-ae96-db940589be7c_794x1010.heic&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/picture><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a \u5927\u885b\uff0e\u6851\u683c<\/li>\n<li>\u539f\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a David E. Sanger<\/li>\n<li>\u8b6f\u8005\uff1a \u984f\u6db5\u92b3<\/li>\n<li>\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff1a\u9ed1\u9ad4\u6587\u5316<\/li>\n<li>\u51fa\u7248\u65e5\u671f\uff1a2025\/11\/05<\/li>\n<li>\u8a9e\u8a00\uff1a\u7e41\u9ad4\u4e2d\u6587<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5 class=\"header-anchor-post\"><strong>\u5167\u5bb9\u7c21\u4ecb<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u90e8\u6700\u63a5\u8fd1\u6c7a\u7b56\u6838\u5fc3\u3001\u63ed\u9732\u4e16\u754c\u5287\u8b8a\u771f\u76f8\u7684\u6b0a\u5a01\u7d00\u5be6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u767d\u5bae\u8cc7\u6df1\u8a18\u8005\u8207\u666e\u7acb\u8332\u734e\u5718\u968a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6df1\u5165\u4e94\u4efb\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u6c7a\u7b56\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u76f4\u64ca\u5730\u7de3\u6230\u7565\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u5167\u5e55<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5f9e\u51b7\u6230\u7d42\u5c40\u8d70\u5411\u6676\u7247\u8207AI\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u5168\u7403\u65b0\u6230\u7dda<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u96a8\u8457\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u5230\u53f0\u6d77\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u81e8\u754c\u6642\u523b\u9010\u6b65\u903c\u8fd1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u5834\u727d\u52d5\u570b\u969b\u79e9\u5e8f\u8207\u6c11\u4e3b\u524d\u9014\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8f49\u6298\u6b63\u6084\u7136\u5c55\u958b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2605\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8<\/p>\n<p>\u2605\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u516c\u5171\u96fb\u53f0\u5e74\u5ea6\u6700\u4f73\u66f8\u7c4d<\/p>\n<p>\u2605\u7f8e\u570b\u4e9e\u99ac\u905c\u903e700\u4f4d\u8b80\u80054.6\u9846\u661f\u9ad8\u8a55\u50f9<\/p>\n<p>\u2605Goodread\u903e1,800\u4f4d\u8b80\u80054.3\u9846\u661f\u9ad8\u8a55\u50f9<\/p>\n<p>\u51b7\u6230\u771f\u7684\u7d50\u675f\u4e86\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e00\u76f4\u5805\u4fe1\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u540c\u610f\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u548c\u65e5\u76ca\u5bcc\u88d5\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u5c31\u80fd\u88ab\u5f15\u8a98\u9032\u4e00\u500b\u7531\u897f\u65b9\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u500b\u79e9\u5e8f\u627f\u8afe\u7e41\u69ae\u8207\u76f8\u5c0d\u548c\u5e73\u3002\u4f46\u7576\u7f8e\u570b\u8d70\u51fa\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6642\u4ee3\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u986f\u7136\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5e7b\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u9019\u4e09\u500b\u6838\u6b66\u5927\u570b\u6b63\u5c55\u958b\u4e00\u5834\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u9b25\u722d\uff0c\u722d\u596a\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u79d1\u6280\u9738\u6b0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u90fd\u9762\u81e8\u4e86\u9078\u908a\u7ad9\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u4e09\u500b\u5927\u570b\u90fd\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6b63\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u9060\u6bd4\u60f3\u50cf\u4e2d\u66f4\u52d5\u76ea\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u722d\u596a\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u9032\u5165\u53e6\u4e00\u5834\u66f4\u6f2b\u9577\u3001\u66f4\u5371\u96aa\u3001\u66f4\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u5c0d\u6c7a\u3002\u5f9e\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u5766\u514b\u58d3\u5883\u57fa\u8f14\u3001\u5230\u53f0\u7063\u6676\u7247\u5ee0\u6210\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u6230\u7565\u7126\u9ede\uff0c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u677f\u584a\u6b63\u5287\u70c8\u79fb\u52d5\u3002\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u9084\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u9818\u5c0e\u9019\u5834\u6c11\u4e3b\u5c0d\u6297\u5c08\u5236\u7684\u6230\u722d\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u4f5c\u8005\u5927\u885b\uff0e\u6851\u683c\u662f\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u8207\u767d\u5bae\u8cc7\u6df1\u8a18\u8005\uff0c\u9577\u5e74\u5c0d\u67ef\u6797\u9813\u3001\u5c0f\u5e03\u5e0c\u3001\u6b50\u5df4\u99ac\u3001\u5ddd\u666e\u3001\u62dc\u767b\u4e94\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u8207\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6c7a\u7b56\u5718\u968a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6578\u767e\u4f4d\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u76df\u90a6\u9ad8\u5c64\u3001\u60c5\u5831\u5b98\u54e1\u8207\u79d1\u6280\u4f01\u696d\u4eba\u58eb\u9032\u884c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7cbe\u5f69\u7684\u63a1\u8a2a\uff0c\u4e26\u570d\u7e5e\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u5c55\u958b\u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u52dd\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6558\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u666e\u4e01\u5165\u4fb5\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u6240\u72af\u4e0b\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u662f\u5426\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u4ed6\u7684\u6bc0\u6ec5\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u5426\u6703\u52d5\u7528\u6838\u6b66\uff1f\u897f\u65b9\u51fa\u4e86\u540d\u7684\u77ed\u66ab\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u662f\u5426\u9810\u793a\u8457\u57fa\u8f14\u7684\u672b\u65e5\uff1f\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u6703\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u55ce\uff1f\u4e2d\u4fc4\u662f\u5426\u6703\u6df1\u5316\u5925\u4f34\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4ee5\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5730\u4f4d\uff1f\u653f\u6cbb\u5931\u8abf\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u9084\u80fd\u9818\u5c0e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u55ce\uff1f\u300a\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u300b\u5e36\u9818\u8b80\u8005\u5f9e\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u6230\u5834\u5230\u751f\u7522\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5148\u9032\u96fb\u8166\u6676\u7247\u7684\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7e3d\u90e8\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u767d\u5bae\u6230\u60c5\u5ba4\u7684\u7dca\u5f35\u8faf\u8ad6\uff0c\u9019\u90e8\u975e\u51e1\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4ee5\u660e\u5feb\u7684\u7bc0\u594f\u8a18\u9304\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u91cd\u8fd4\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u672a\u4f86\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f8\u4e2d\u7d30\u81a9\u63cf\u7e6a\u4e86\u666e\u4e01\u7c4c\u5283\u5168\u9762\u5165\u4fb5\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff1a\u5f9e\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bae\u7684\u6230\u7565\u6703\u8b70\u3001\u5fae\u8edf\u7e3d\u90e8\u767c\u73fe\u7684\u99ed\u5ba2\u653b\u64ca\u3001\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u60c5\u5c40\u5bc6\u4f7f\u5e36\u8457\u7e3d\u7d71\u89aa\u7b46\u4fe1\u98db\u5f80\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u672a\u679c\uff0c\u5728\u5728\u63ed\u793a\u6230\u722d\u4e26\u975e\u4e00\u5915\u7206\u767c\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u9577\u671f\u8aa4\u5224\u8207\u758f\u5ffd\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u672c\u66f8\u4e5f\u76f4\u6307\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u9818\u5c0e\u4e0b\u7684\u6230\u7565\u8f49\u5411\uff0c\u5f9e\u300c\u4e00\u5e36\u4e00\u8def\u300d\u30015G\u6ef2\u900f\u5168\u7403\u5230\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u8207\u6676\u7247\u7981\u904b\u4e0b\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u51b7\u6230\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6311\u6230\u7684\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u9ad4\u5236\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300a\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u300b\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u570b\u969b\u65b0\u805e\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u8a55\u8ad6\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u7576\u4ee3\u53f2\u7684\u521d\u7a3f\uff0c\u8a18\u9304\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u7fa9\u9000\u5834\u5f8c\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5982\u4f55\u91cd\u56de\u5927\u570b\u5c0d\u6297\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u7af6\u722d\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u6df1\u523b\u5256\u6790\u7f8e\u570b\u4e94\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u5728\u6230\u7565\u4e0a\u8a66\u5716\u8207\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5efa\u7acb\u5408\u4f5c\u3001\u63a8\u52d5\u4e2d\u570b\u878d\u5165\u570b\u969b\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u537b\u5728\u95dc\u9375\u6642\u6a5f\u5c62\u6b21\u932f\u5931\u8abf\u6574\u8207\u61c9\u5c0d\u7684\u5951\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u6620\u7167\u51fa\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5167\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\u8207\u5236\u5ea6\u5931\u80fd\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u6230\u7565\u7684\u9650\u5236\u8207\u7126\u616e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u63cf\u5beb\u7684\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u8207\u8aa4\u5224\uff0c\u66f4\u95dc\u4e4e\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u8eab\u8655\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff1a\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u80fd\u5426\u6490\u904e\u6838\u5a01\u8105\uff1f\u53f0\u7063\u662f\u5426\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u6230\u5834\uff1f\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u8207\u7db2\u8def\u7a7a\u9593\u7684\u4e3b\u5c0e\u6b0a\u5c07\u5c6c\u65bc\u8ab0\uff1f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8207\u7368\u88c1\u4e4b\u722d\u9084\u6709\u52dd\u7b97\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u8aa0\u5982\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\uff0c\u300a\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u300b\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u300c\u6e05\u6670\u800c\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u7d00\u5be6\uff0c\u63ed\u9732\u7f8e\u570b\u4e00\u6574\u4ee3\u6c7a\u7b56\u5b98\u54e1\u5982\u4f55\u9762\u5c0d\u5f8c\u51b7\u6230\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\u6311\u6230\u300d\uff0c\u6829\u6829\u5982\u751f\u5730\u63cf\u7e6a\u51fa\u83ef\u5e9c\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u8f49\u6298\u6642\u523b\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u73fe\u5834\u3002\u300a\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u300b\u4e0d\u4f46\u63cf\u7e6a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4fc4\u4e09\u65b9\u89d2\u529b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6230\u5834\u8207\u5e55\u5f8c\u7af6\u722d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6df1\u523b\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u5011\uff1a\u5371\u6a5f\u5df2\u81f3\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u4ecd\u5728\u7576\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5404\u754c\u63a8\u85a6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u6e05\u6670\u800c\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u7d00\u5be6\uff0c\u63ed\u9732\u7f8e\u570b\u4e00\u6574\u4ee3\u6c7a\u7b56\u5b98\u54e1\u5982\u4f55\u9762\u5c0d\u5f8c\u51b7\u6230\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\u6311\u6230\u2500\u2500\u5f9e\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u5230\u6b50\u6d32\u50b3\u7d71\u570b\u8207\u570b\u6230\u722d\u7684\u56de\u6b78\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u5834\u65b0\u820a\u4ea4\u66ff\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6df7\u6230\u2026\u2026\u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u52dd\uff0c\u751f\u52d5\u5730\u6355\u6349\u83ef\u5e9c\u6c7a\u7b56\u73fe\u5834\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\uff08The New York Times\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u622a\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6700\u80fd\u6e96\u78ba\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4fc4\u4e09\u5f37\u89d2\u529b\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u66f8\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u516c\u5171\u5ee3\u64ad\u96fb\u53f0\uff08NPR\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u6851\u683c\u751f\u52d5\u5730\u63cf\u7e6a\u6c7a\u7b56\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u5373\u6642\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u4e26\u5c55\u73fe\u77ed\u671f\u8003\u91cf\u5982\u4f55\u5851\u9020\u9577\u671f\u6230\u7565\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52d9\u300b\uff08Foreign Affairs\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u4e00\u672c\u6975\u5177\u53ef\u8b80\u6027\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u4e3b\u984c\u5e36\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8b66\u793a\u7684\u610f\u5473\u3002\u6851\u683c\u517c\u9867\u7406\u8ad6\u8207\u7d30\u7bc0\uff0c\u5beb\u51fa\u9019\u672c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u7cbe\u5f69\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5168\u7403\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u8f49\u6298\u9ede\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500\u300a\u5bc6\u78bc\u7c21\u5831\u300b\uff08The Cipher Brief\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u4e00\u90e8\u7cbe\u5f69\u63cf\u7e6a\u62dc\u767b\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u51fa\u8272\u7d00\u5be6\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500\u300a\u7a7a\u90f5\u9031\u520a\u300b\uff08Airmail\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u6851\u683c\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u654f\u92b3\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u7a4d\u6975\u4e3b\u52d5\u3001\u5584\u65bc\u50be\u807d\u7684\u50be\u807d\u8005\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u5145\u6eff\u4f86\u81ea\u653f\u6cbb\u6c7a\u7b56\u300e\u884c\u52d5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u300f\u7684\u6d1e\u898b\u548c\u8efc\u4e8b\uff0c\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u5c55\u73fe\u4e86\u6851\u683c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5167\u5916\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500H-Diplo\uff0c\u7f85\u4f2f\uff0e\u5091\u7dad\u65af\u570b\u969b\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u8ad6\u58c7\uff08The Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u6211\u5011\u6b63\u6025\u901f\u9081\u5165\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5927\u885b\uff0e\u6851\u683c\u6b63\u662f\u6b64\u4e00\u5f62\u6210\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u76ee\u64ca\u8005\u8207\u8a18\u9304\u8005\u3002\u9019\u90e8\u5091\u51fa\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u7d50\u5408\u5831\u5c0e\u3001\u63ed\u9732\u8207\u6df1\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5e36\u9818\u6211\u5011\u9032\u5165\u5bc6\u5ba4\uff0c\u65c1\u807d\u90a3\u4e9b\u95dc\u65bc\u4fc4\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u3001\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u3001\u4e2d\u6771\u8207\u5c16\u7aef\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u6a5f\u5bc6\u5c0d\u8a71\u3002\u300a\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u300b\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u8457\u8ff7\u4e14\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7d00\u5be6\uff0c\u8b93\u4eba\u7121\u6cd5\u5ffd\u8996\u9019\u500b\u661f\u7403\u6b63\u5728\u767c\u751f\u7684\u5287\u8b8a\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500\u9ea5\u53ef\uff0e\u8c9d\u8a31\u7f85\u65af\uff08Michael Beschloss\uff09\u3001\u7d10\u6642\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u300a\u6230\u722d\u4e2d\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\u300b\uff08Presidents of War\uff09\u4f5c\u8005<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u300a\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u300b\u5f9e\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u8207\u6230\u7565\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u7d00\u9304\u4e26\u56de\u9867\u4e86\u7f8e\u4e2d\u95dc\u4fc2\u8f49\u8b8a\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u53ef\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u672c\u5728\u7576\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5c40\u52e2\u5287\u8b8a\u4e0b\u95dc\u9375\u6642\u523b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e4b\u4f5c\u2026\u2026\u672c\u66f8\u7279\u5225\u503c\u5f97\u6211\u5011\u5b78\u7fd2\u501f\u93e1\u4e4b\u8655\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u6709\u8a73\u7d30\u7684\u7d00\u9304\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4e5f\u63d0\u4f9b\u8a31\u591a\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u8003\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u7acb\u8ad6\u7684\u6839\u64da\u662f\u7d2e\u5be6\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f15\u7528\u76f8\u7576\u5145\u5206\u7684\u667a\u5eab\u5b78\u8005\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5831\u544a\u3002\u50cf\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u516c\u5171\u8b70\u984c\u8a0e\u8ad6\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5728\u73fe\u4eca\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7206\u70b8\u3001\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5206\u773e\u5316\u7684\u793e\u7fa4\u5a92\u9ad4\u8208\u8d77\u3001\u4e14\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u7269\u5f80\u5f80\u6d41\u65bc\u6c11\u7cb9\u5316\u4fee\u8fad\u800c\u5c0b\u6c42\u7c21\u55ae\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6a19\u8a9e\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5927\u773e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7cbe\u529b\u78ba\u8a8d\u300e\u4e8b\u5be6\u300f\u7684\u300e\u5f8c\u771f\u76f8\u300f\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u66f4\u986f\u5f97\u73cd\u8cb4\u3002\u300d\u2500\u2500\u9673\u65b9\u9685\uff08\u6771\u5433\u5927\u5b78\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u7cfb\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff09<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\u7c21\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5927\u885b\uff0e\u6851\u683c\uff08David E. Sanger\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u8207\u767d\u5bae\u8cc7\u6df1\u8a18\u8005\uff0c\u4efb\u8077\u903e\u56db\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u66fe\u4e09\u5ea6\u53c3\u8207\u666e\u7acb\u8332\u734e\u5f97\u734e\u5718\u968a\u3002\u6b77\u4efb\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u6771\u4eac\u5206\u793e\u4e3b\u4efb\u3001\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7279\u6d3e\u54e1\u8207\u83ef\u5e9c\u9996\u5e2d\u8a18\u8005\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u5831\u5c0e\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u8207\u79d1\u6280\u6230\u7565\u3002\u73fe\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u95dc\u4fc2\u5354\u6703\uff08Council on Foreign Relations\uff09\u8207\u4e9e\u65af\u672c\u6230\u7565\u7d44\u7e54\uff08Aspen Strategy Group\uff09\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7518\u8ffa\u8fea\u653f\u5e9c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u6388\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u8457\u6709\u300a\u8cc7\u8a0a\u6230\u722d\u300b\uff08The Perfect Weapon\uff09\u3001\u300a\u7e7c\u627f\u8005\u300b\uff08The Inheritance\uff09\u7b49\u66f8\uff0c\u73fe\u5c45\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u7279\u5340\uff0c\u4ea6\u70baCNN\u64b0\u7a3f\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8b6f\u8005\u7c21\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u984f\u6db5\u92b3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8cc7\u6df1\u8b6f\u8005\u3002\u8b6f\u6709\u300a\u5730\u7406\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4eba\u6027\u4e2d\u7684\u826f\u5584\u5929\u4f7f\u300b\u3001\u300a\u96b1\u5f62\u6230\u300b\u3001\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5f31\u9ede\u300b\u3001\u300a\u6539\u8b8a\u4eba\u985e\u768412\u5ea7\u6642\u9418\u300b\u3001\u300a\u5584\u826f\u7684\u9006\u8972\u300b\u3001\u300a\u8352\u6dbc\u8def\u300b\u3001\u300a\u722d\u9738\u5927\u696d\u300b\u3001\u300a\u8ffd\u7375\u6b7b\u4ea1\u5546\u4eba\u300b\u3002\u8457\u6709\u300a\u8212\u66fc100\u9996\u7d93\u5178\u5275\u4f5c\u53ca\u5176\u6545\u4e8b\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4f60\u4e0d\u53ef\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u856d\u90a6\uff1a100\u9996\u7d93\u5178\u5275\u4f5c\u53ca\u5176\u6545\u4e8b\u300b\u3001\u300a\u7d93\u5178100\u8c9d\u591a\u82ac\u300b\u3001\u300a\u975e\u4e3b\u6d41\u53e4\u5178CD\u300b\u7b49\u66f8\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8 \u8af8\u570b\u9f4a\u5fc3\u7684\u5927\u5922<\/strong><br \/>\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0 \u98c4\u904e\u96b1\u58eb\u5eec<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0 \u8ff7\u5931\u7684\u6578\u5341\u5e74<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0 \u666e\u4e01\u7684\u4e03\u5e74\u4e4b\u7662<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0 \u7f8e\u570b\u81f3\u4e0a<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8 \u6b77\u53f2\u5fc5\u7136\u8da8\u52e2<\/strong><br \/>\n\u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0 \u6536\u62fe\u6b98\u5c40<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u516d\u7ae0 \u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5357\u67ef\u4e00\u5922<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u4e03\u7ae0 \u5371\u96aa\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u96d9\u4eba\u821e<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u516b\u7ae0 \u9032\u9000\u5931\u64da<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u4e5d\u7ae0 \u53f2\u666e\u7279\u5c3c\u514b\u6642\u523b\u91cd\u6f14<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u7ae0 \u81ea\u5439\u81ea\u64c2<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u7ae0 \u300c\u7121\u4e0a\u9650\u300d\u53cb\u597d\u95dc\u4fc2\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206 \u71b1\u6230\u548c\u51b7\u6230<\/strong><br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u4e8c\u7ae0 \u5165\u4fb5\u4e0d\u904e\u4e00\u6642\u3001\u4f5c\u6230\u537b\u662f\u9577\u4e45<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u4e09\u7ae0 \u6eab\u6c34\u716e\u9752\u86d9<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u56db\u7ae0 \u8d8a\u754c<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u4e94\u7ae0 \u6838\u5f48\u96e3\u984c<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u516d\u7ae0 \u5c0f\u9662\u9ad8\u7246<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u4e03\u7ae0 \u300c\u5225\u903c\u6211\u5011\u9078\u908a\u7ad9\u300d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c\u56db\u90e8 \u70ba\u52e2\u529b\u7bc4\u570d\u800c\u6230<\/strong><br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u516b\u7ae0 \u6b62\u6208\u4e4b\u65e5\u4f55\u5728<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u5341\u4e5d\u7ae0 \u6578\u4f4d\u6230\u722d\u8207\u5176\u6975\u9650<br \/>\n\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5341\u7ae0 \u6025\u901f\u60e1\u5316<\/p>\n<p>\u5f8c\u8a18<br \/>\n\u81f4\u8b1d<br \/>\n\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90<br \/>\n\u8a3b\u91cb<\/p>\n<p>\u6ce2\u58eb\u9813\u66f8\u8a55 Boston Review of BooksNov 14, 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a \u5927\u885b\uff0e\u6851\u683c \u539f\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a David E. Sanger \u8b6f\u8005\uff1a \u984f\u6db5\u92b3 \u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff1a\u9ed1\u9ad4\u6587\u5316 \u51fa\u7248\u65e5\u671f\uff1a2 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":5920,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-6","category-light"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5919"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5922,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5919\/revisions\/5922"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}