{"id":6121,"date":"2026-01-03T10:12:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-03T15:12:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=6121"},"modified":"2026-01-03T10:12:45","modified_gmt":"2026-01-03T15:12:45","slug":"%e5%bc%a0%e5%8d%83%e5%b8%86%ef%bc%9a%e5%8f%8d%e6%80%9d%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%9f%e5%88%b6-%e6%9e%97%e8%8c%a8%e5%91%bd%e9%a2%98%e7%9a%84%e4%bf%ae%e6%ad%a3%e4%b8%8e%e7%bb%86%e5%8c%96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=6121","title":{"rendered":"\u5f20\u5343\u5e06\uff1a\u53cd\u601d\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u2014\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u4e0e\u7ec6\u5316"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=4786\">\u8be5\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5b63\u520a\u300b2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63<\/a><\/p>\n<h5><strong>\u53cd\u601d\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u2014\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u4e0e\u7ec6\u5316\uff08\u4e0a\uff09<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>\u5f20\u5343\u5e06<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6458\u8981<\/strong>\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u4e89\uff0c\u6f84\u6e05\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u754c\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u6982\u51b5\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5bf9\u4e8e\u653f\u4f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e0e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5404\u6709\u5229\u5f0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e92\u6709\u6210\u8d25\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u96be\u4ee5\u514b\u670d\u7684\u5185\u5728\u5f0a\u7aef\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b9c\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e7f\u6cdb\u91c7\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u4e00\u3001 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Cheney)\u56e0\u4e00\u76f4\u6fc0\u70c8\u6279\u8bc4\u5ddd\u666e\u7834\u574f\u5baa\u653f\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u800c\u88ab\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4ee5\u95ed\u95e8\u4f1a\u8bae\u548c\u8bed\u97f3\u6295\u7968\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u64a4\u9500\u4e86\u5927\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7684\u804c\u52a1\u3002\u6682\u4e14\u628a\u5927\u9009\u4e89\u6267\u7684\u662f\u975e\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8fb9\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e89\u8bae\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u652f\u6301\u5ddd\u666e\u8fd8\u662f\u62dc\u767b\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u90fd\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6fc0\u60c5\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7126\u8651\u4e43\u81f3\u6124\u6012\uff1b\u633a\u5ddd\u3001\u53cd\u5ddd\u6210\u4e86\u52bf\u4e0d\u4e24\u7acb\u7684\u4e24\u6d3e\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u751a\u81f3\u4e3a\u4e4b\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u5e76\u672a\u7ed3\u675f\uff1b\u5ddd\u666e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e94\u82b1\u516b\u95e8\u201c\u821e\u5f0a\u201d\u6307\u63a7\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u60dc\u70ae\u5236\u5404\u79cd\u9009\u4e3e\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u81f3\u4eca\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c2024\u5e74\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u6c11\u4e3b\u6e38\u620f\u89c4\u5219\u751a\u81f3\u6d89\u5acc\u717d\u52a8\u53db\u4e71\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u770b\u4f3c\u532a\u5937\u6240\u601d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u4e3b\u6700\u60a0\u4e45\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\uff1f\u9020\u6210\u5927\u9009\u4e71\u8c61\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u7528\u4e00\u53e5\u5927\u767d\u8bdd\u6765\u6982\u62ec\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u592a\u91cd\u8981\u4e86\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u53cc\u65b9\u90fd\u8f93\u4e0d\u8d77\u3002\u7528\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u6797\u8328(Juan Linz)\u548c\u5229\u666e\u54c8\u7279(Arend Liphart)\u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\uff1a\u603b\u7edf\u5168\u56fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\uff1b\u5373\u4fbf2020\u5e74\u5ddd\u666e\u5f97\u4e8647%\u30017000\u591a\u4e07\u5f20\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u62162024\u5e74\u54c8\u91cc\u65af(Kamala 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href=\"#_edn4\" name=\"_ednref4\">[4]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u59822020\u5e7411\u67083\u65e5\u9009\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bae\u4f1a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u8fd8\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5417\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b89\u5168\u5730\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bae\u5458\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u82f1\u7f8e\u5355\u9009\u533a\u5236(single-member 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href=\"#_edn5\" name=\"_ednref5\">[5]<\/a> 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Hall\uff09\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u5185\u9601\u7531\u4e0b\u8bae\u9662\u591a\u6570\u515a\u5f62\u6210\uff1b\u867d\u7136\u89c4\u5b9a\u4e86\u5468\u671f\u6027\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u4f46\u5185\u9601\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u653f\u7b56\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u8bae\u4f1a\u591a\u6570\u652f\u6301\u5373\u987b\u8f9e\u804c\u3002<a href=\"#_edn6\" name=\"_ednref6\">[6]<\/a> 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href=\"#_edn7\" name=\"_ednref7\">[7]<\/a> \u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u671f\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c\u9ad8\u8fbe70%\uff1b\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u9677\u5165\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u53ea\u670915%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u6df7\u5408\u5236\u4e00\u76f4\u53ea\u670910%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u76f4\u52301990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e1c\u6b27\u8f6c\u578b\u540e\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7edf\u8ba1\u9650\u4e8e\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8bba\u6c11\u4e3b\u6307\u6570\u662f\u5426\u8fbe\u6807\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u5baa\u6cd5\u5176\u5b9e\u90fd\u53ef\u6309\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6807\u51c6\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u5baa\u6cd5\u5236\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\u201d\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u5bf9196\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\u6587\u672c\u6700\u65b0\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c<a href=\"#_edn8\" name=\"_ednref8\">[8]<\/a> 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name=\"_Toc466727094\"><\/a>\u4e09\u3001 \u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff1f<\/h5>\n<p>\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u603b\u7edf\u4e0d\u5bf9\u8bae\u4f1a\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e00\u822c\u4efb\u671f\u56fa\u5b9a\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u603b\u7edf\u7531\u9009\u6c11\u76f4\u9009\u6216\u9009\u4e3e\u9662\u9009\u4e3e\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u57fa\u7840\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u884c\u653f\u5411\u83b7\u5f97\u9009\u6c11\u6388\u6743\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\uff08\u603b\u7edf\uff09\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u5206\u6743\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6838\u5fc3\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b83\u4fdd\u8bc1\u884c\u653f\u65e2\u4e0d\u5bf9\u7acb\u6cd5\u673a\u6784\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u5176\u7f62\u514d\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u53ea\u5bf9\u9009\u6c11\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u662f\u9009\u6c11\u4e3a\u4ed6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u201c\u5929\u547d\u201d(mandate)\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u603b\u7edf\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u8bae\u4f1a\u7f62\u514d\uff0c\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u4ed6\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u4e5f\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u2026\u2026\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5206\u6743\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u662f\u53cc\u5411\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u603b\u7edf\u4e5f\u65e0\u6743\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\uff0c\u8bae\u5458\u4eab\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u6388\u6743\u3002<a href=\"#_edn9\" name=\"_ednref9\">[9]<\/a> \u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u53ef\u88ab\u56fd\u4f1a\u5f39\u52be\uff0c\u4f46\u5f39\u52be\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u53f8\u6cd5\u5ba1\u5224\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e0b\u7684\u7f62\u514d\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u8d23\u4efb\u5185\u9601\uff0c\u6743\u529b\u7ecf\u7531\u8bae\u4f1a\u4ece\u9009\u6c11\u59d4\u6258\u7ed9\u884c\u653f\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5185\u9601\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u515a\u7eaa\u5f8b\u4e5f\u5bf9\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b9e\u65bd\u5b9e\u9645\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5185\u9601\u83b7\u5f97\u653f\u515a\u652f\u6301\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u6570\u515a\uff0c\u653f\u515a\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5012\u9601\u800c\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u4efb\u4f55\u5236\u88c1\u3002<a href=\"#_edn10\" name=\"_ednref10\">[10]<\/a> \u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9\u4ecd\u7136\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u66f4\u52a0\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5371\u673a\u201d\u662f\u8036\u9c81\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u6797\u8328\u57281990\u5e74\u4ee3\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u547d\u9898\uff0c<a href=\"#_edn11\" name=\"_ednref11\">[11]<\/a> \u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u754c\u548c\u5baa\u6cd5\u5b66\u754c\u70ed\u70c8\u800c\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u6b63\u503c\u82cf\u4e1c\u5267\u53d8\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u4e8c\u6b21\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u4e4b\u540e\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u8bbe\u8ba1\u65b0\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6797\u8328\u7684\u547d\u9898\u4e0d\u4ec5\u7275\u6d89\u5baa\u6cd5\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6797\u8328\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u62c9\u7f8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u7ecf\u5386\u8bba\u8bc1\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5185\u5728\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u2014\u56fd\u4f1a\u53cc\u91cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u77db\u76fe\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u9891\u7e41\u9677\u5165\u50f5\u5c40\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u8d70\u5411\u653f\u5e9c\u762b\u75ea\u4e43\u81f3\u653f\u6743\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6797\u8328\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3001\u4efb\u671f\u56fa\u5316\u3001\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u5bfc\u81f4\u96f6\u548c\u6e38\u620f\u3001\u8fc7\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u81ea\u5927\u3001\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5916\u884c\u5bb9\u6613\u8d62\u5f97\u603b\u7edf\u5b9d\u5ea7\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u515a\u6d3e\u8fbe\u6210\u59a5\u534f\u548c\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6700\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u662f\u5b9e\u884c\u4e00\u5e2d\u9009\u533a\u5236\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u897f\u654f\u5bfa\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u7edf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u56fd\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u7684\u9886\u8896\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u3002<a href=\"#_edn12\" name=\"_ednref12\">[12]<\/a> \u6797\u8328\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5168\u6c11\u9009\u4e3e\u4ea7\u751f\u4e14\u4e0d\u53d7\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u8868\u51b3\u673a\u5236\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u6b63\u5f53\u8bc9\u6c42\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u9009\u51fa\u201c\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u201d\u7684\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u7d20\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u4e8b\u5148\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4ece\u653f\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u9700\u8981\u653f\u515a\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u83b7\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u9009\u7968\u5c31\u80fd\u6311\u6218\u603b\u7edf\u5b9d\u4f4d\u30022016\u5e74\u30012024\u5e74\u4e24\u5ea6\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f0f\u521d\u9009\u4f7f\u5f97\u515a\u5916\u70ed\u95e8\u4eba\u9009\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u89d2\u9010\u5e76\u8d62\u5f97\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5982\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u603b\u7406\u90a3\u4e48\u4e30\u5bcc\u30021940-76\u5e74\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u90e8\u957f\u7ecf\u5386\u5e74\u8d44\u8fdc\u4e0d\u5982\u6b27\u6d32\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u3002\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u8499\u4ee3\u5c14(Walter Mondale)\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u9886\u8896\u662f\u4e86\u89e3\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u540c\u9053\u9009\u62e9\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5374\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u6211\u63d0\u540d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ade\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u3002\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u4efb\u4f55\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4efb\u4f55\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u7684\u652f\u6301\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u4e4b\u524d\u66fe\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u4e3e\u62c5\u4efb\u516c\u804c\u3002\u201d<a href=\"#_edn13\" name=\"_ednref13\">[13]<\/a> \u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5206\u6743\u5236\u8861\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u53ef\u4ee5\u79bb\u5f00\u56fd\u4f1a\u548c\u540c\u515a\u652f\u6301\u800c\u72ec\u7acb\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed3\u679c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u515a\u5185\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u591a\u6570\u652f\u6301\u800c\u901a\u4e0d\u8fc7\u603b\u7edf\u63d0\u8bae\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u7acb\u6cd5\u6401\u6d45\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u50f5\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u6b21\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u56fd\u5bb6\u57f9\u517b\u7a33\u91cd\u7684\u6cd5\u6cbb\u4e60\u60ef\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u4e07\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3001\u4f4d\u9ad8\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u6cbb\u7406\u6210\u8d25\u5747\u88ab\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u4e2a\u4eba\u3002\u56fd\u5bb6\u5a92\u4f53\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e8b\u52a1\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u514b\u6797\u987f(Bill Clinton)\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u767d\u5bab\u5b9e\u4e60\u79d8\u4e66\u83b1\u6587\u65af\u57fa(Monica Lewinsky)\u7684\u7eef\u95fb\u5c31\u8db3\u8db3\u5438\u5f15\u5a92\u4f53\u597d\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5728\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e00\u822c\u9ad8\u5f00\u4f4e\u8d70\u3001\u8d77\u4f0f\u5267\u70c8\u3002\u8b6c\u5982\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7684\u963f\u65b9\u8f9b(Ra\u00fal Alfons\u00edn)\u603b\u7edf1984\u5e74\u5f53\u9009\u65f6\u652f\u6301\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe82%\uff0c1987\u5e74\u4e0b\u964d\u523054%\uff0c1989\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u524d\u5915\u4e0b\u964d\u523036%\u3002\u79d8\u9c81\u7684\u52a0\u897f\u4e9a(Alan Garc\u00eda)\u603b\u7edf\u5219\u57281985-89\u5e74\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u5206\u522b\u662f90%\u300170%\u300144%\u300115%\u30019%\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u82cf\u4e9a\u96f7\u65af(Adolfo Su\u00e1rez)\u603b\u74061977-80\u5e74\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u5206\u522b\u662f67%\u300150%\u300135%\u300126%\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u603b\u7406\u963f\u767b\u7eb3(Konrad Adenauer)\u57281949-50\u5e74\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e3a33%\u548c24%\uff0c1953\u5e74\u4e3a57%\u30011960\u5e74\u4e3a41%\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8f83\u524d\u6709\u6240\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e94\u5171\u548c\u4e3a\u534a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u6234\u9ad8\u4e50(Charles de Gaulle)\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u57281960\u5e74\u8fbe\u523074%\uff0c1968\u5e74\u9000\u4f11\u65f6\u4ecd\u7136\u670953%\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u843d\u3002<a href=\"#_edn14\" name=\"_ednref14\">[14]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u51f8\u663e\u9886\u8896\u4e2a\u4eba\u6743\u5a01\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u653f\u515a\u5bf9\u9886\u8896\u6743\u529b\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6291\u5236\u653f\u515a\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u603b\u7406\u6700\u7ec8\u662f\u5411\u653f\u515a\u8d1f\u8d23\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u82f1\u56fd\u201c\u94c1\u5a18\u5b50\u201d\u6492\u5207\u5c14(Margaret Thatcher\u00a0)\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f8b\u5916\u30021990\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u515a\u64a4\u9500\u4e86\u6492\u5207\u5c14\u9996\u76f8\u7684\u804c\u52a1\uff0c\u5373\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5185\u9601\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u5e76\u4e0d\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u5b83\u9009\u4e3e\u5b98\u5458\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u4e0b\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u548c\u4e1c\u6b27\u7b49\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5f62\u5f0f\u4ecd\u7136\u4f7f\u5f97\u653f\u515a\u5bf9\u9886\u8896\u4fdd\u7559\u4e00\u5b9a\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u8b6c\u59821956\u5e74\uff0c\u82cf\u5171\u64a4\u9500\u4e86\u8d6b\u9c81\u6653\u592b(Nikita Khrushchev)\u7684\u804c\u52a1\u3002\u5728\u653f\u515a\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u5a01\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5219\u5f80\u5f80\u91c7\u7528\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279(Augusto Pinochet)\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u667a\u5229\u3002\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6267\u653f\u515a\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u5217\u5b81\u5f0f\u5927\u4f17\u515a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u5de8\u5934\u8f6e\u6d41\u6267\u653f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u91c7\u7528\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u30021990\u5e74\uff0c\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\u60f3\u8981\u4fdd\u62a4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6743\u529b\u4e0d\u53d7\u515a\u5185\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4e5f\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5baa\u6cd5\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5baa\u6cd5\u662f\u4ece\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u627f\u7ee7\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u4e3a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u5de9\u56fa\u3002<a href=\"#_edn15\" name=\"_ednref15\">[15]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u56fa\u5b9a\u4efb\u671f\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u50f5\u5c40\u4e43\u81f3\u653f\u4f53\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5185\u9601\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u591a\u515a\u5236\u4e0b\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u867d\u7136\u4e5f\u60f3\u5f62\u6210\u56fd\u4f1a\u8054\u76df\u5236\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u53cd\u6b63\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5012\u53f0\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u52a8\u673a\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bfb\u6c42\u5f62\u6210\u957f\u671f\u8054\u76df\u3002\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u201c\u5185\u90e8\u4eba\u201d\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u201c\u5c40\u5916\u4eba\u201d\u8eab\u4efd\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5176\u5bf9\u6784\u5efa\u8bae\u4f1a\u8054\u76df\u7684\u70ed\u60c5\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u8bae\u5458\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u8054\u76df\u3002\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u8bae\u5458\u4e0d\u7528\u8bf4\u4e86\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u515a\u5185\u7684\u8bae\u5458\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u52a8\u673a\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5e72\u5f97\u597d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8fde\u4efb\uff0c\u5e72\u4e0d\u597d\u5219\u66f4\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u4e0b\u53f0\u4e86\uff0c\u8bae\u5458\u8fd8\u5f97\u8fde\u9009\u8fde\u4efb\uff0c\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u8d34\u5f97\u592a\u8fd1\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u667a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u56fa\u5316\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f7f\u4e0d\u8be5\u4e0b\u53f0\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u8bae\u4f1a\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f7f\u65e9\u8be5\u4e0b\u53f0\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u4e0d\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u79d8\u9c81\u3001\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u603b\u7edf\u90fd\u662f\u56e0\u6b64\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u53d8\u3002<a href=\"#_edn16\" name=\"_ednref16\">[16]<\/a> \u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u91cf\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u770b\u597d\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3002\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c1959-89\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u6c11\u4e3b\u672a\u66fe\u4e2d\u65ad\u768424\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u670918\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u534a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u82ac\u5170\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u54e5\u65af\u8fbe\u9ece\u52a0\u3001\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c93\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u6700\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u54e5\u65af\u8fbe\u9ece\u52a0\uff0c\u81ea1949\u5e74\u8fd0\u884c\u81f3\u4eca\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\u662f1958-98\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u59d4\u745e\u5185\u62c9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca1989\u5e74\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5df4\u62c9\u572d\u3002<a href=\"#_edn17\" name=\"_ednref17\">[17]<\/a> \u5982\u679c\u8003\u5bdf1972-94\u5e74\u95f4\u8fde\u7eed\u8fd0\u884c\u768433\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u591a\u8fbe22\u4e2a\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5219\u53ea\u67096\u4e2a\u3002\u52301990\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11\u4e3e\u884c\u8fc72\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u670948\u4e2a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u542b27\u4e2a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u300112\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u603b\u7edf\u2014\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u548c\u5927\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u54042\u4e2a\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u67095\u4e2a\u603b\u7406\u2014\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5965\u5730\u5229\u548c\u51b0\u5c9b\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662f\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u3002\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u91cf\u660e\u663e\u8d85\u8fc7\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3002<a href=\"#_edn18\" name=\"_ednref18\">[18]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u6982\u7387\u5219\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u663e\u8457\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u30021946-99\u5e74\uff0c23\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u6210\u72ec\u88c1\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u53d8\u72ec\u88c1\u7684\u521958\u4e2a\u624d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u653f\u6743\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5bff\u547d\u662f58\u5e74\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5374\u53ea\u670924\u5e74\u3002<a href=\"#_edn19\" name=\"_ednref19\">[19]<\/a> \u62c9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u51e0\u4e4e\u4ece\u6765\u662f\u6e05\u4e00\u8272\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u62c9\u7f8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf19\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u5d29\u6e83\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5b83\u5730\u533a\u5219\u662f70\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u5d29\u6e83\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002\u800c\u5728\u540e\u8005\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u540c\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u89c4\u6a21\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7167\u6837\u6bd4\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u66f4\u77ed\u547d\uff1a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf55\u4e2a\u653f\u4f53\u5d29\u6e83\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5219\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf88\u4e2a\u653f\u4f53\u624d\u5d29\u6e83\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002<a href=\"#_edn20\" name=\"_ednref20\">[20]<\/a> 1946-2002\u5e74\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u53ea\u6709\u4e16\u754c9%\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u5374\u5728157\u6b21\u653f\u6743\u53d8\u66f4\u4e2d\u5360\u4e8637%\uff1b\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e73\u5747\u8f6c\u578b\u8fd13\u6b21\uff0c\u5176\u5b83\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u53ea\u67090.5\u6b21\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5371\u673a\u8bba\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5426\u8ba4\u3002\u5728\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u4ee5\u5357\u7684\u975e\u6d32\u7b49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6216\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u90fd\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u90fd\u662f8\u4e2a\u5f53\u4e2d\u5d29\u6e83\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5b58\u6d3b\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e14\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u80fd\u529b\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u65f6\u671f\u5dee\u3002<a href=\"#_edn21\" name=\"_ednref21\">[21]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6797\u8328\u548c\u5176\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u5728\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6b64\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6797\u8328\u53ca\u5176\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u4e0e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u8c61\u8bf4\u660e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5371\u673a\u662f\u5185\u751f\u7684\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u56fa\u5b9a\u4efb\u671f\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5904\u7406\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u7f62\u514d\u603b\u7edf\u5219\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u52a8\u6447\u6574\u4e2a\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u5982\u679c\u603b\u7edf\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u591a\u6570\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u81ea\u613f\u8f9e\u804c\u4e4b\u5916\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u89e3\u51b3\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6709\u6548\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u53ea\u6709\u901a\u8fc7\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u529b\u91cf\u98a0\u8986\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u6700\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f1970-73\u5e74\u7684\u667a\u5229\u30021971\u5e747\u6708\uff0c\u963f\u8fde\u5fb7(Arab Emirates)\u603b\u7edf\u60f3\u5b9e\u73b0\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e24\u9662\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u8fc7\u4e86\u5927\u4f17\u7edf\u4e00\u515a\u7684\u5f81\u6536\u94dc\u77ff\u63d0\u6848\uff0c\u4f46\u540e\u6765\u7684\u56fd\u6709\u5316\u8fde\u906d\u8d25\u7ee9\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u4e0e\u56fd\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u50f5\u5c40\u3002<a href=\"#_edn22\" name=\"_ednref22\">[22]<\/a> 1973\u5e74\uff0c\u963f\u8fde\u5fb7\u603b\u7edf\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u8bae\u4f1a\u591a\u6570\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4efb\u671f\u957f\u8fbe6\u5e74\uff0c\u8981\u52301976\u5e74\u624d\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u5bb3\u6015\u4ed6\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u884c\u5a01\u6743\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u53d1\u52a8\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u53d8\u4f7f\u5176\u4e0b\u53f0\u3002\u800c\u5728\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u8868\u51b3\u5373\u53ef\u987a\u5229\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u3002<a href=\"#_edn23\" name=\"_ednref23\">[23]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u6797\u8328\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u663e\u7136\u4f18\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u4e0e\u56fd\u4f1a\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u4f1a\u6301\u4e45\u5f15\u53d1\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u800c\u5e76\u65e0\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u673a\u5236\uff1b\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u96f6\u548c\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u5176\u591a\u6570\u5236(majoritarian)\u7279\u5f81\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f60%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u800c\u56fa\u5b9a\u4efb\u671f\u548c\u8fde\u4efb\u9650\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u4f53\u5236\u50f5\u5316\u3002<a href=\"#_edn24\" name=\"_ednref24\">[24]<\/a> \u603b\u7edf\u5236\u8fd8\u9020\u6210\u62c9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u515a\u7fb8\u5f31\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6797\u8328\u4e3b\u5f20\u4ece\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u3002\u9664\u975e\u5728\u653f\u515a\u6781\u7aef\u788e\u7247\u5316\u7684\u4f8b\u5916\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e00\u822c\u4f1a\u9f13\u52b1\u653f\u515a\u53ca\u5176\u9886\u8896\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u5fc3\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5176\u59a5\u534f\u5e76\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u4e00\u515a\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u7edd\u5bf9\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5728\u591a\u515a\u5236\u683c\u5c40\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u751a\u5c0f\u3002\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u8fd8\u5141\u8bb8\u9886\u8896\u6362\u4eba\u800c\u4e0d\u89e6\u53d1\u653f\u6743\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u800c\u4e0d\u7528\u62c5\u5fc3\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6267\u653f\u3002<a href=\"#_edn25\" name=\"_ednref25\">[25]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u4eba\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4ea7\u751f\u5f3a\u9886\u8896\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5219\u5f80\u5f80\u201c\u7fa4\u9f99\u65e0\u9996\u201d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6070\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u7ecf\u5e38\u662f\u5404\u65b9\u59a5\u534f\u4e0b\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5019\u9009\u4eba\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u5f3a\u603b\u7406\u5219\u5c42\u51fa\u4e0d\u7a77\uff0c\u4ece\u4e18\u5409\u5c14(Winston Churchill)\u5230\u6492\u5207\u5c14\uff0c\u4ece\u963f\u767b\u7eb3\u5230\u5e03\u5170\u7279(Willy Brandt)\uff1b\u62c9\u7f8e\u7684\u82cf\u4e9a\u96f7\u65af\u548c\u5188\u8428\u96f7\u65af(L\u00e1zaro Chac\u00f3n Gonz\u00e1lez)\u4e5f\u90fd\u5f88\u5f3a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0b\u53f0\u6ca1\u6709\u9020\u6210\u4ec0\u4e48\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\u3002<a href=\"#_edn26\" name=\"_ednref26\">[26]<\/a> \u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u662f\u57f9\u517b\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u8896\u7684\u6e29\u5e8a\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u515a\u7684\u9886\u8896\u90fd\u6709\u671b\u6210\u4e3a\u603b\u7406\u3002\u8bae\u4f1a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u63d0\u4f9b\u5404\u79cd\u51fa\u5934\u9732\u9762\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e8e\u653f\u515a\u9886\u8896\u5efa\u7acb\u540d\u671b\u3002\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u95f2\u7740\uff0c\u603b\u7406\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5373\u4fbf\u8d25\u9009\u4e5f\u901a\u5e38\u7ee7\u7eed\u7559\u5728\u8bae\u4f1a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u653f\u6cbb\u5e73\u53f0\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u7528\u7b49\u5230\u7ade\u9009\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u58f0\u660e\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u51fa\u81ea\u5dde\u957f\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6709\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u8c03\u63a7\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u5f3a\u653f\u515a\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u7684\u5f31\u653f\u515a\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u9886\u8896\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u56fd\u4f1a\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u653f\u515a\u9886\u8896\u3002<a href=\"#_edn27\" name=\"_ednref27\">[27]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u6709\u4eba\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u8054\u90a6\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8054\u90a6\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u800c\u603b\u7edf\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u8c61\u5f81\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u60f3\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u5c11\u3002\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u51e0\u4e4e\u5e73\u5206\u79cb\u8272\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9176\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u628a\u5177\u6709\u8054\u90a6\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u6743\u91cd\u9664\u4ee52\u518d\u548c\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u6570\u91cf\u76f8\u52a0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u88681\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e2d\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8fbe\u523020.8%\uff0c\u4ec5\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6bd4\u4f8b29.6%\u7565\u4f4e\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u534a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5e76\u663e\u8457\u9ad8\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e2d\u7684\u8d85\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5728\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u89c4\u6a21\u663e\u8457\u5c0f\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u5c0f\u56fd\u91c7\u7528\u8054\u90a6\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u663e\u7136\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002\u88681\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u663e\u793a\u7acb\u6cd5\u2014\u884c\u653f\u6a2a\u5411\u5206\u6743\u548c\u7eb5\u5411\u5206\u6743\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff1a\u603b\u7edf\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u548c\u8d85\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u90fd\u6388\u6743\u603b\u7edf\u4eab\u6709\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u88c1\u91cf\u6743\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u5730\u65b9\u81ea\u6cbb\u8981\u7d20\u90fd\u663e\u8457\u4f4e\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u548c\u603b\u7406\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<table width=\"622\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">\u603b\u6570<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">\u5355\u4e00\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">\u8054\u90a6\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"124\">\u8054\u90a6\u7279\u5f81\u5355\u4e00\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">\u8054\u90a6\u5236\uff08%\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\">\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">66<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">50<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">12<\/td>\n<td width=\"124\">3<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">20.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\">\u603b\u7406\u603b\u7edf\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">55<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">47<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">8<\/td>\n<td width=\"124\">2<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">16.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\">\u603b\u7edf\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">28<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">24<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">2<\/td>\n<td width=\"124\">1<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">8.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\">\u603b\u7edf\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">27<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">18<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">7<\/td>\n<td width=\"124\">2<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">29.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\">\u8d85\u603b\u7edf\u5236<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">5<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">4<\/td>\n<td width=\"103\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"124\">1<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u88681\uff1a\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5206\u6743\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u5baa\u6cd5\u5236\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\u201d\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u6743\u72ec\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u5e72\u6270\u8054\u90a6\u5236\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u5185\u6218\u57cb\u4e0b\u9690\u60a3\u3002\u62c9\u7f8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f3a\u9677\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u968f\u610f\u5e72\u9884\u5730\u65b9\u4e8b\u52a1\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u6743\u4efb\u514d\u5dde\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u5404\u5dde\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u5dde\u957f\u4e00\u4eba\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u540c\u6837\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4eba\u731c\u6d4b\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6574\u5408\u591a\u65cf\u7fa4\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u6743\u529b\u5784\u65ad\u6070\u6070\u662f\u65cf\u7fa4\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u6e0a\u6e90\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u534f\u8bae\u548c\u8054\u5408\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5927\u515a\uff0c\u5c0f\u515a\u6709\u671b\u6210\u4e3a\u603b\u7406\u5e76\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u8c08\u5224\u59a5\u534f\u548c\u6743\u529b\u5171\u4eab\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u603b\u53f8\u4ee4\u548c\u519b\u5b98\u76f4\u63a5\u8054\u7cfb\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e00\u6982\u800c\u8bba\u3002\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u56fd\u738b\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u7b03\u4fe1\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u9047\u5230\u5f3a\u4eba\u5219\u53cd\u800c\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u9b4f\u739b\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u519b\u5b98\u53ef\u7ed5\u5f00\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u5185\u9601\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0a\u8fbe\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u635f\u5bb3\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e5f\u5bb9\u6613\u5bfc\u81f4\u519b\u961f\u76f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u91c7\u53d6\u8fdd\u5baa\u884c\u52a8\u3002<a href=\"#_edn28\" name=\"_ednref28\">[28]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u5229\u666e\u54c8\u7279\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\u7684\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u793e\u4f1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3001\u52a0\u5267\u653f\u6cbb\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u53cd\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u672c\u6765\u548c\u591a\u6570\u5236\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5374\u5e76\u4e0d\u4eab\u6709\u591a\u6570\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u67d0\u4e9b\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u4e0d\u662f\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u592a\u5c11\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u62c9\u7f8e\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5baa\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u89c4\u5b9a\u4e86\u79cd\u79cd\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u4e0d\u5f97\u8fde\u4efb\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u65e0\u529b\u611f\u4e0d\u5f3a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5934\u53f7\u4e16\u754c\u5f3a\u56fd\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u6e38\u5203\u6709\u4f59\u3001\u611f\u89c9\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u80fd\u91cf\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u51fa\u53e3\u3002\u4f46\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u65e0\u8bba\u5f3a\u5f31\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0b\u6ca1\u6709\u5171\u6cbb\u548c\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u50f5\u5c40\u3002<a href=\"#_edn29\" name=\"_ednref29\">[29]<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" name=\"_edn1\">[1]<\/a> \u8331\u8389\u4e9a\u2022\u96c5\u514b\u5e03\uff1a\u300a\u89c6\u89c9\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\uff1a\u5bf9\u56fd\u4f1a\u5c71\u7684\u8fdb\u653b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u300b\uff08Julia Jacobo, A visual timeline on how the attack on Capitol Hill unfolded, ABC News, 10 January 2021, <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/visual-timeline-attack-capitol-hill-unfolded\/story?id=75112066\"><em>https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/visual-timeline-attack-capitol-hill-unfolded\/story?id=75112066<\/em><\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\" name=\"_edn2\">[2]<\/a> \u5f20\u5343\u5e06\uff1a\u201c\u51b3\u5b9a2020\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684120\u573a\u8bc9\u8bbc\u201d\uff0cFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\uff0c2021\u5e742\u670820\u65e5\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ftchinese.com\/story\/001091485?adchannelID=&amp;full=y\">https:\/\/www.ftchinese.com\/story\/001091485?adchannelID=&amp;full=y<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref3\" name=\"_edn3\">[3]<\/a> \u5361\u7f57\u7433\u00b7\u51ef\u5229\uff1a\u300a\u5207\u5c3c\uff1a\u90e8\u5206\u5171\u548c\u515a\u8bae\u5458\u56e0\u751f\u547d\u5a01\u80c1\u800c\u6295\u7968\u53cd\u5bf9\u5f39\u52be\u300b(Caroline Kelly, Cheney says some GOP members voted against impeachment out of fear for their lives, CNN, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2021\/05\/14\/politics\/liz-cheney-republican-party-cnntv\/index.html)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref4\" name=\"_edn4\">[4]<\/a> \u5f20\u5343\u5e06\uff1a\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5951\u7ea6\u7684\u7834\u88c2\u4e0e\u91cd\u5efa\u201d\uff0cFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\uff0c2020\u5e7412\u67081\u65e5\uff0c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ftchinese.com\/story\/001090425?adchannelID=&amp;full=y\">http:\/\/www.ftchinese.com\/story\/001090425?adchannelID=&amp;full=y<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref5\" name=\"_edn5\">[5]<\/a> \u5f20\u5343\u5e06\uff1a\u201c\u97e9\u56fd\u6212\u4e25\u95f9\u5267\u2014\u2014\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u53c8\u4e00\u8d25\u5146\u201d\uff0c FT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\uff0c2024\u5e7412\u67085\u65e5\uff0chttps:\/\/www.ftchineselive.com\/story\/001104964.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref6\" name=\"_edn6\">[6]<\/a> \u7ea6\u745f\u2022\u5b89\u4e1c\u5c3c\u5965\u2022\u5207\u5e03\u4f2f\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b[Jos\u00e9 Antonio Cheibub, <em>Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Democracy<\/em>, Cambridge University Press (2007), p. 35]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref7\" name=\"_edn7\">[7]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 42-43\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref8\" name=\"_edn8\">[8]<\/a> \u53c2\u89c1\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u5baa\u6cd5\u4e0e\u884c\u653f\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff1a\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u4ee3\u8bae\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u5927\u5236\u5ea6\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u201d\uff0c2020\u5e7411\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref9\" name=\"_edn9\">[9]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, p. 2\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref10\" name=\"_edn10\">[10]<\/a> \u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u6ce2\u6839\u7279\u514b\u4e0e\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08\u7f16\uff09\uff1a\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5316\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u300b[Thomas Poguntke and Paul Webb eds., <em>The Presidentialization of Politics: A Comparative Study of Modern Democracies<\/em>, Oxford University Press (2007), pp. 2-3]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref11\" name=\"_edn11\">[11]<\/a> \u6700\u65e9\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u53c2\u89c1\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7J\u00b7\u6797\u8328\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u300b[Juan J. Linz, &#8220;The Perils of Presidentialism,&#8221; <em>Journal of Democracy<\/em> 1, no. 1 (Winter 1990): 51-69]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref12\" name=\"_edn12\">[12]<\/a> \u80e1\u5b89\u00b7J\u00b7\u6797\u8328\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6216\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff1f\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\u548c\u963f\u56fe\u7f57\u00b7\u74e6\u4f26\u82cf\u57c3\u62c9\uff08\u7f16\uff09\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u300b[Juan Linz, Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference?, in Juan Linz and Arturo Valenzuela eds., <em>The Failure of Presidential Democracy<\/em>, Johns Hopkins University Press (1994), pp. 14-15]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref13\" name=\"_edn13\">[13]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, p. 28\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref14\" name=\"_edn14\">[14]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a pp. 29-30\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref15\" name=\"_edn15\">[15]<\/a> \u9a6c\u4fee\u00b7\u7d22\u4f2f\u683c\u00b7\u8212\u683c\u7279\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7M\u00b7\u51ef\u91cc\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u4e0e\u8bae\u4f1a\uff1a\u5baa\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u53d8\u6570\u300b[Matthew Soberg Shugart and John M. Carey, <em>Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics<\/em>, Cambridge University Press (2002), p. 37]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref16\" name=\"_edn16\">[16]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, p. 36\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref17\" name=\"_edn17\">[17]<\/a> \u4e54\u74e6\u5c3c\u00b7\u8428\u6258\u91cc\uff1a\u300a\u65e2\u975e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e5f\u975e\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\u548c\u963f\u56fe\u7f57\u00b7\u74e6\u4f26\u82cf\u57c3\u62c9\uff08\u7f16\uff09\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff08\u7b2c1\u5377\uff09\uff1a\u6bd4\u8f83\u89c6\u89d2\u300b[Giovanni Sartori, Neither Presidentialism nor Parliamentarism, Juan Linz and Arturo Valenzuela eds., <em>The Failure of Presidential Democracy (vol. 1): Comparative Perspectives<\/em>, Johns Hopkins University Press (1994), pp. 107-109, 112-115]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref18\" name=\"_edn18\">[18]<\/a> \u80e1\u5b89\u00b7J\u00b7\u6797\u8328\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6216\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff1f\u300b(Linz, Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference?, p. 2)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref19\" name=\"_edn19\">[19]<\/a>\u5207\u5e03\u4f2f\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b(Cheibub, <em>Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Democracy<\/em>, p. 2.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref20\" name=\"_edn20\">[20]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 137-139\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref21\" name=\"_edn21\">[21]<\/a> \u7ea6\u745f\u00b7\u5b89\u4e1c\u5c3c\u5965\u00b7\u5207\u5e03\u4f2f\u548c\u8d39\u5c14\u5357\u591a\u00b7\u5229\u8499\u5409\uff1a\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0e\u653f\u6743\u751f\u5b58\uff1a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e0e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u518d\u5ba1\u89c6\u300b[Jos\u00e9 Antonio Cheibub and Fernando Limongi, Democratic Institutions and Regime Survival: Parliamentary and Presidential Democracies Reconsidered, 5 <em>Annual Review of Political Science<\/em> 151-179 (2002), pp. 151-152]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref22\" name=\"_edn22\">[22]<\/a> \u7ea6\u745f\u00b7\u5b89\u4e1c\u5c3c\u5965\u00b7\u5207\u5e03\u4f2f\u3001\u4e9a\u5f53\u00b7\u666e\u70ed\u6c83\u8328\u57fa\u548c\u585e\u5df4\u65af\u8482\u5b89\u00b7M\u00b7\u8d5b\u8036\u8d6b\uff1a\u300a\u653f\u5e9c\u8054\u76df\u4e0e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6210\u529f\uff1a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0e\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u300b[Jos\u00e9 Antonio Cheibub, Adam Przeworski and Sebastian M. Saiegh, Government Coalitions and Legislature Success under Presidentialism and Parliamentarism, 34 <em>British Journal of Political Science<\/em> 565-587 (2004), pp. 577-578]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref23\" name=\"_edn23\">[23]<\/a> \u65af\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u591a\u515a\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u8270\u96be\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u300b[Scott Mainwaring, Presidentialism, Multipartism, and Democracy: The Difficult Combination, 26 <em>Comparative Political Studies<\/em> 198-228 (1993), pp. 208-209]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref24\" name=\"_edn24\">[24]<\/a> \u6797\u8328\u548c\u963f\u56fe\u7f57\u00b7\u74e6\u4f26\u82cf\u57c3\u62c9\uff08\u7f16\uff09\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u300b[Linz and Arturo Valenzuela eds., <em>The Failure of Presidential Democracy<\/em> (1994), p. 69]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref25\" name=\"_edn25\">[25]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, p. 64\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref26\" name=\"_edn26\">[26]<\/a> \u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6216\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff1f\u300b(Juan Linz, Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference?, pp. 39-40)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref27\" name=\"_edn27\">[27]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 41-42\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref28\" name=\"_edn28\">[28]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 42-45\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref29\" name=\"_edn29\">[29]<\/a> \u963f\u4f26\u5fb7\u00b7\u83b1\u666e\u54c8\u7279\uff1a\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0e\u591a\u6570\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u89c2\u5bdf\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u6797\u8328\u548c\u74e6\u4f26\u82cf\u57c3\u62c9\uff08\u7f16\uff09\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u300b(Arend Lijphart, Presidentialism and Majoritarian Democracy: Theoretical Observations, in Linz and Valenzuela eds., <em>The Failure of Presidential Democracy<\/em>, pp. 102-103)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=5104\">\u8be5\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5b63\u520a\u300b2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\uff1a<\/a><\/p>\n<h4>\u53cd\u601d\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u2014\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u4e0e\u7ec6\u5316\uff08\u4e0b\uff09<\/h4>\n<p>\u5f20\u5343\u5e06<\/p>\n<p>\u6458\u8981\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u2014\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u4e89\uff0c\u6f84\u6e05\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u754c\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u6982\u51b5\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5bf9\u4e8e\u653f\u4f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e0e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5404\u6709\u5229\u5f0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e92\u6709\u6210\u8d25\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u96be\u4ee5\u514b\u670d\u7684\u5185\u5728\u5f0a\u7aef\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b9c\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e7f\u6cdb\u91c7\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u56db\u3001\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u53cd\u8bc1\u4e0e\u4fee\u6b63<\/h5>\n<p>\u6797\u8328\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5371\u673a\u8c8c\u4f3c\u903b\u8f91\u4e25\u5bc6\uff0c\u4e14\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u752b\u4e00\u63d0\u51fa\u5373\u906d\u6279\u8bc4\u548c\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u6797\u8328\u53ca\u5176\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u62ff\u62c9\u7f8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u8bf4\u4e8b\u5e26\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5411(selection bias)\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5373\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5d29\u6e83\u5e76\u4e0d\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u66f4\u5c11\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa\u53d1\u751f\u768440\u6b21\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\u5d29\u6e83\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d22\u6b21\u662f\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\uff0c12\u6b21\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e24\u6ce2\u3002\u4e00\u6ce2\u662f\u4e24\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u51e0\u4e4e\u5168\u90e8\u662f\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u6ce2\u662f\u57281960\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f46\u4e0d\u5168\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u6797\u8328\u548c\u65af\u8482\u6f581978\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u4e09\u5377\u672c\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u300b\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u662f\u5173\u6ce8\u4e86\u76f8\u5bf9\u665a\u8fd1\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4e24\u6b21\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u670925\u4e2a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d12\u4e2a\u5c5e\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u653f\u4f53\u5d29\u6e83\u6ce2\u53ca7\u4e2a\u6b27\u6d32\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e0e\u5965\u5730\u52292\u4e2a\u6df7\u5408\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5374\u53ea\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u963f\u6839\u5ef71\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u4e8c\u6218\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8626\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u975e\u6b27\u6d32\u5e73\u5206\u79cb\u8272\uff1b\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e2d\u5219\u53ea\u67093\u56fd\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u591a\u8fbe11\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u66fe\u7ecf\u653f\u4f53\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u62c9\u7f8e\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u548c\u4e9a\u6d32\u7b49\u6b20\u53d1\u8fbe\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u5e0c\u814a\u5d29\u6e83\u8fc71\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_edn1\" name=\"_ednref1\">[1]<\/a><\/p>\n<h5>\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u53cd\u8bc1<\/h5>\n<p>\u5728\u5236\u5ea6\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e0a\uff0c\u6797\u8328\u8ba4\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u6709\u6b66\u65ad\u4e4b\u5acc\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5371\u673a\u8bba\u53ea\u770b\u5230\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f18\u70b9\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u76f4\u63a5\u9009\u4e3e\u4e3a\u9009\u6c11\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u6c11\u4e3b\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u9009\u6c11\u8d23\u4efb\u3001\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u8bc6\u522b\u5ea6\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u5236\u8861\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6743\u529b\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4e2d\u7acb\u4ef2\u88c1\u8005\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u3002<a href=\"#_edn2\" name=\"_ednref2\">[2]<\/a> 1945-87\u5e74\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u8eab\u4efd\u8bc6\u522b\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\uff080-1\uff09\u53ea\u67090.39\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u3001\u610f\u5927\u5229\u3001\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7b49\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u8eab\u4efd\u8bc6\u522b\u5ea6\u5206\u522b\u53ea\u67090.1\u30010.12\u30010.14\uff0c\u800c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u8bc6\u522b\u5ea6\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd11\u3002<a href=\"#_edn3\" name=\"_ednref3\">[3]<\/a> \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u548c\u8fa9\u8bba\u7acb\u6cd5\u4e5f\u65e0\u89e3\u6563\u7684\u540e\u987e\u4e4b\u5fe7\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u80fd\u5426\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6743\u529b\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4e2d\u7acb\u4ef2\u88c1\u8005\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e24\u70b9\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u515a\u9886\u8896\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u7acb\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u56fe\u666f\u9884\u8bbe\u4e86\u5f31\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u800c\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u8fc7\u5f31\u4e5f\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u5176\u5bf9\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<a href=\"#_edn4\" name=\"_ednref4\">[4]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e0d\u72ec\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5b58\u5728\u53cc\u91cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u6709\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7ade\u4e89\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u4e24\u9662\u5236\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9662\u5373\u5904\u4e8e\u7ade\u4e89\u5173\u7cfb\uff1b\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u5185\u9601\u5fc5\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u83b7\u5f97\u4e24\u9662\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e24\u9662\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7ade\u4e89\u5c24\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6709\u201c\u603b\u7edf\u201d\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u603b\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u7531\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u800c\u975e\u9009\u6c11\u76f4\u9009\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u884c\u4f7f\u7684\u804c\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u793c\u4eea\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u610f\u5927\u5229\u603b\u7edf\u6709\u6743\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\u5e76\u8981\u6c42\u5185\u9601\u6cd5\u4ee4\u83b7\u5f97\u5176\u526f\u7f72\uff0c\u6377\u514b\u548c\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u603b\u7edf\u5219\u6709\u6743\u4efb\u547d\u90e8\u957f\u5e76\u5426\u51b3\u7acb\u6cd5\uff1b\u5373\u4fbf\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7eaf\u7cb9\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u5973\u738b\uff0c\u4e5f\u884c\u4f7f\u4e86\u6279\u51c6\u9996\u76f8\u5ef6\u957f\u4e0b\u8bae\u9662\u5047\u671f\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u6743\u529b\u3002<a href=\"#_edn5\" name=\"_ednref5\">[5]<\/a> \u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u6743\u529b\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u5308\u7259\u5229\u548c\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\u5df2\u53d1\u751f\u6570\u8f6e\u6d89\u53ca\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u6b21\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u56fa\u5316\u56fa\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7f29\u77ed\u4efb\u671f\u52a0\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u76844-5\u5e74\u4efb\u671f\u6bd4\u8f83\u5408\u9002\uff1b\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u62c9\u7f8e\u53ca\u975e\u6d32\u5c11\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u89c4\u5b9a6\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4efb\u671f\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u592a\u957f\u4e86\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4efb\u671f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u8d8a\u77ed\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u5e26\u6709\u4e24\u9762\u6027\uff0c\u6cf0\u56fd\u3001\u7d22\u9a6c\u91cc\u7b49\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u5e38\u4e0d\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u5185\u9601\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u8fd0\u8f6c\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u53ea\u80fd\u7b49\u5230\u4efb\u671f\u7ed3\u675f\u624d\u80fd\u66f4\u8fed\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u3002<a href=\"#_edn6\" name=\"_ednref6\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u662f\u9009\u4e3e\u5236\u5ea6\u800c\u975e\u5206\u6743\u5236\u5ea6\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u548c\u653f\u515a\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b58\u5728\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u672a\u5fc5\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5177\u6709\u515a\u6027\u5f3a\u7684\u591a\u6570\u515a\uff0c\u5185\u9601\u51e0\u4e4e\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u6267\u653f\u515a\u7ecf\u5e38\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u591a\u6570\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u5374\u80fd\u7a33\u7a33\u628a\u6301\u7740\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u5185\u9601\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7b56\u7565\u6027\u884c\u4f7f\u8bae\u4f1a\u89e3\u6563\u6743\u4ee5\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u5ef6\u957f\u5176\u4efb\u671f\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u52d2\u6bd4\u548c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u591a\u6570\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u4e25\u91cd\u3002<a href=\"#_edn7\" name=\"_ednref7\">[7]<\/a> \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e09\u6743\u5206\u7acb\u7684\u597d\u5904\u6070\u6070\u662f\u9632\u6b62\u201c\u80dc\u8005\u901a\u5403\u201d\u3002\u5728\u591a\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u8981\u80dc\u9009\u5e76\u7ef4\u6301\u6709\u6548\u7edf\u6cbb\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5c06\u5185\u9601\u804c\u4f4d\u5728\u51e0\u5927\u515a\u4e2d\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5141\u8bb8\u603b\u7edf\u7ade\u9009\u4e2d\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u65b9\u5206\u4eab\u90e8\u5206\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b89\u6392\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5236\u5ea6\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u8f83\u5f31\u3001\u653f\u515a\u7eaa\u5f8b\u6027\u8f83\u5f3a\u4e14\u653f\u515a\u4f53\u7cfb\u5e76\u975e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u540c\u7b49\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u8fd0\u884c\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u653f\u515a\u7eaa\u5f8b\u6027\u4e0d\u5f3a\uff0c\u8bae\u5458\u6295\u7968\u6211\u884c\u6211\u7d20\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u786e\u5b9e\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5185\u9601\u4e0d\u7a33\uff0c\u8d38\u7136\u4ece\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7edf\u6cbb\u80fd\u529b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u9002\u5f97\u5176\u53cd\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002<a href=\"#_edn8\" name=\"_ednref8\">[8]<\/a> \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u6765\u81ea\u4f53\u5236\u5185\u8fd8\u662f\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u653f\u515a\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u5f3a\u5f31\u3002\u5728\u653f\u515a\u66f4\u4e3a\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u7d20\u4eba\u201d\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u662f\u4f8b\u5916\u800c\u975e\u89c4\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u4fee\u6b63<\/h5>\n<p>\u5373\u4fbf\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u66f4\u52a0\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u7279\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8868\u73b0\u4e5f\u8981\u770b\u5176\u6240\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u662f\u54ea\u79cd\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u3001\u54ea\u79cd\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7edd\u5bf9\u3002\u6216\u8bb8\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5e76\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u6216\u5185\u5728\u5730\u4e0d\u5982\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u5982\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u591a\u515a\u5236\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u4e24\u515a\u5236\u4e0b\u8fd0\u884c\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u8fd0\u884c\u5f97\u8fd8\u7b97\u603b\u4f53\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u90a3\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u515a\u4f53\u5236\u662f\u4e24\u515a\u5236\u3002\u591a\u515a\u5236\u5f88\u96be\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u6570\u515a\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u6709\u5c11\u6570\u515a\u652f\u6301\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5f88\u96be\u7ef4\u6301\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u3001\u54e5\u65af\u8fbe\u9ece\u52a0\u3001\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u3001\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u548c\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u4e4c\u62c9\u572d\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7f8e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3002\u6beb\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b64\u7acb\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u9009\u4e3e\u4e0e\u653f\u515a\u7ed3\u6784\u7b49\u5176\u5b83\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u90fd\u8981\u6c42\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u653f\u515a\u7eaa\u5f8b\u6027\uff0c\u4e14\u653f\u515a\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u80fd\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5206\u6563\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5931\u8d25\u30021945\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5f53\u4e2d\u5373\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u8bae\u4f1a\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3002<a href=\"#_edn9\" name=\"_ednref9\">[9]<\/a> \u603b\u7edf\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u653f\u515a\u4e0e\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u91cf\u66f4\u4e3a\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u5176\u6709\u6548\u8fd0\u884c\u901a\u5e38\u8981\u6c42\u6709\u6548\u653f\u515a\u6570\u91cf\u5c0f\u4e8e4\u3002\u57287\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u62c9\u7f8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c6\u56fd\u7684\u6709\u6548\u653f\u515a\u6570\u90fd\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc73\uff0c1933-73\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u667a\u5229\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4f8b\u5916\u3002<a href=\"#_edn10\" name=\"_ednref10\">[10]<\/a> 1967-92\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c31\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed25\u5e74\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u67094\u4e2a\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u54e5\u65af\u8fbe\u9ece\u52a0\u3001\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u3001\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u5236+\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u6709\u6548\u653f\u515a\u6570\u91cf\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8861\u91cf\u653f\u515a\u7ed3\u6784\u5206\u6563\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6570\u662f\u96f7\u6307\u6570(Ray Index)\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u4e24\u540d\u8bae\u5458\u968f\u673a\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u515a\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u548c\u6709\u6548\u653f\u515a\u6570\u6210\u53cd\u6bd4\u5173\u7cfb\uff1b\u4e00\u515a\u5236\u7684\u96f7\u6307\u6570\u4e3a0\uff0c\u4e24\u515a\u5236\u4e3a0.5\uff0c\u8bae\u5458\u5404\u81ea\u4e3a\u653f\u3001\u6beb\u65e0\u653f\u515a\u7eaa\u5f8b\u662f1\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff04\u4e2a\u7f8e\u6d32\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u653f\u515a\u6570\u4e3a2.2\uff0c\u96f7\u6307\u6570\u4e3a0.55\u3002\u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u7edf\u8ba1\u768431\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u670915\u4e2a\u662f\u591a\u515a\u5236\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53ea\u67091\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u6c11\u4e3b\u8d85\u8fc725\u5e74\u3002<a href=\"#_edn11\" name=\"_ednref11\">[11]<\/a> \u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u548c\u4e4c\u62c9\u572d\u90fd\u66fe\u6301\u7eed\u6c11\u4e3b25\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u90fd\u662f\u4e24\u515a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u515a\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bb9\u6613\u9020\u6210\u884c\u653f\u2014\u7acb\u6cd5\u50f5\u5c40\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5f62\u6210\u653f\u515a\u95f4\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u800c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u653f\u515a\u8054\u76df\u4e0d\u5982\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u5728\u4e24\u515a\u5236\u4e0b\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u603b\u7edf\u6240\u5728\u7684\u515a\u662f\u591a\u6570\u515a\uff0c\u4f46\u591a\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5bb9\u6613\u9020\u6210\u7acb\u6cd5\u2014\u884c\u653f\u50f5\u5c40\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u5f62\u6210\u7acb\u6cd5\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u6709\u70b9\u7c7b\u4f3c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u515a\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5728\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u515a\u8054\u5408\u9009\u62e9\u603b\u7406\u548c\u5185\u9601\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e5f\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u7ef4\u6301\u5185\u9601\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5012\u9601\u7684\u8bdd\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\u3001\u91cd\u65b0\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u653f\u515a\u548c\u8bae\u5458\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u9762\u4e34\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5728\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5f62\u6210\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5185\u9601\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u653f\u515a\u7684\u575a\u5b9a\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u65e0\u80fd\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u653f\u515a\u548c\u8bae\u5458\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u652f\u6301\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u5185\u9601\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0b\u7684\u653f\u515a\u5373\u4fbf\u5f62\u6210\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u6253\u7834\u8054\u76df\u3001\u91cd\u65b0\u6d17\u724c\u3002\u867d\u7136\u603b\u7edf\u638c\u63e1\u7740\u5784\u65ad\u653f\u7b56\u8bae\u7a0b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5931\u53bb\u8bae\u4f1a\u591a\u6570\u652f\u6301\u4e4b\u540e\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u5b9e\u65bd\u8bae\u7a0b\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u7ecf\u5e38\u6bd4\u603b\u7406\u66f4\u5f31\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u5baa\u6cd5\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7acb\u6cd5\u2014\u884c\u653f\u50f5\u5c40\u4f7f\u4e4b\u65e0\u6cd5\u65bd\u5c55\u5baa\u6cd5\u6743\u529b\uff1b\u8bae\u4f1a\u5219\u867d\u7136\u65e0\u6743\u542f\u52a8\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5374\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u963b\u788d\u603b\u7edf\u8bae\u7a0b\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6709\u6548\u653f\u515a\u6570\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u6210\u4e3a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5c11\u6570\u515a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u968f\u4e4b\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5185\u9601\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u6df7\u6742\u5176\u5b83\u515a\u6d3e\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u83b7\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e9b\u515a\u6d3e\u7684\u8bae\u5458\u652f\u6301\u3002<a href=\"#_edn12\" name=\"_ednref12\">[12]<\/a> \u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\u5e76\u91cd\u65b0\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u6210\u4e3a\u201c\u8ddb\u9e2d\u201d(lame duck)\uff0c\u653f\u515a\u4e5f\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u4e0d\u5b88\u7eaa\u5f8b\u30021985-90\u5e74\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u8428\u5c3c(Sarney)\u5185\u9601\u53ea\u80fd\u4f9d\u8d56570\u8bae\u5e2d\u4e2d\u533a\u533a31\u7968\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u9047\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b80\u5355\u8bc9\u8bf8\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u8868\u51b3\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5374\u53ea\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u4f53\u5236\u5916\u884c\u52a8\u3002<a href=\"#_edn13\" name=\"_ednref13\">[13]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u6ca1\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5bf9\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u591a\u515a\u5236\u4e0b\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u515a\u8fbe\u6210\u7ec4\u9601\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u7c7b\u534f\u8bae\u4e0d\u50cf\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u7f62\u514d\u90e8\u957f\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u603b\u7406\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u8054\u76df\u548c\u9009\u4e3e\u8054\u76df\u662f\u5206\u5f00\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u8054\u76df\u5c31\u662f\u521b\u8bbe\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8054\u76df\u3002\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u653f\u515a\u8054\u76df\u4e00\u822c\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e14\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\uff1b\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u8054\u76df\u5219\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u540e\u5373\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bae\u5458\u4e2a\u4eba\u652f\u6301\u653f\u515a\u9886\u8896\u4e4b\u95f4\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u7ecf\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u7684\uff0c\u5185\u9601\u591a\u515a\u7ed3\u6784\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u653f\u515a\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u8b6c\u5982\u540c\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u653f\u515a\u5f88\u5b88\u7eaa\u5f8b\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u548c\u5384\u74dc\u591a\u5c14\u7684\u5305\u7f57\u515a(catch-all party)\u5219\u4e00\u70b9\u4e0d\u5b88\u7eaa\u5f8b\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u8bae\u5458\u6709\u4e49\u52a1\u652f\u6301\u653f\u515a\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u9762\u4e34\u5185\u9601\u5012\u53f0\u5e76\u4e27\u5931\u8bae\u5e2d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u653f\u515a\u5219\u66f4\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u6253\u7834\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5f53\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u6765\u4e34\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u515a\u9886\u8896\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u8981\u548c\u73b0\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u4fdd\u6301\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u627f\u62c5\u6cbb\u7406\u4e0d\u5f53\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u6df1\u5ea6\u5206\u88c2(deeply divided)\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e24\u515a\u5236\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u4ee3\u8868\u5176\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u591a\u515a\u5236\u6216\u8bb8\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c11\u6570\u6d3e\u6c38\u8fdc\u88ab\u653f\u6cbb\u62d2\u4e4b\u95e8\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6df1\u5ea6\u5206\u88c2\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f88\u96be\u9002\u7528\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3002\u591a\u515a\u5236\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6216\u8bb8\u65e0\u6240\u8c13\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5374\u6709\u5bb3\u65e0\u5229\u3002\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u91c7\u7528\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ee3\u8868\u5236\uff0c\u9009\u533a\u8bae\u5e2d\u4e5f\u76f8\u5f53\u591a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9020\u6210\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3002\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u548c\u54e5\u65af\u8fbe\u9ece\u52a0\u5c06\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u56fd\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u5b89\u6392\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4e4c\u62c9\u572d\u8981\u6c42\u6295\u4e00\u5f20\u515a\u7968\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u907f\u514d\u653f\u515a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u4f46\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u3001\u5384\u74dc\u591a\u5c14\u7b49\u8bb8\u591a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u515a\u7fb8\u5f31\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u4e00\u6837\u641e\u4e0d\u597d\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u515a\u7eaa\u5f8b\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c1d\u8bd5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u9009\u533a\u8bae\u5e2d\u5e76\u8ba9\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u56fd\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u540c\u6b65\u3002<a href=\"#_edn14\" name=\"_ednref14\">[14]<\/a><\/p>\n<h5>\u4e94\u3001\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u4e0e\u5f71\u54cd<\/h5>\n<p>\u8212\u52a0\u7279\u7b49\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u4f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u4e0e\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u547d\u5185\u9601\u6210\u5458\u548c\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u6743\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u603b\u7edf\u6709\u6743\u89e3\u6563\u8bae\u4f1a\u5e76\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b58\u7eed\uff0c\u5373\u8868\u660e\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b58\u7eed\u7684\u5206\u6743\u5ea6(separation of survival)\u4f4e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6309\u5185\u9601\u51b3\u5b9a\u6743\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b58\u7eed\u5206\u6743\u5ea6\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u753b\u56fe\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e8c\u7ef4\u90fd\u4f4e\u7684\u662f\u603b\u7406\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u4e8c\u7ef4\u90fd\u9ad8\u7684\u662f\u6807\u51c6\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u603b\u7edf\u5bf9\u5185\u9601\u6784\u6210\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6743\u5927\u800c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b58\u7eed\u5206\u6743\u5ea6\u4f4e\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u5219\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u624d\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b58\u7eed\u5206\u6743\u5ea6\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f0f\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b58\u7eed\u5206\u6743\u5ea6\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u5bf9\u5185\u9601\u6784\u6210\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6743\u4e5f\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u534a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u201d\u4e2d\u7684\u603b\u7406\u603b\u7edf(premier-president)\u5236\u3002<a href=\"#_edn15\" name=\"_ednref15\">[15]<\/a> \u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u8fc7\u5927\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4f1a\u6210\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u603b\u7edf\u5bf9\u5185\u9601\u6784\u6210\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u89e3\u6563\u6743\u529b\u8fc7\u5927\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bae\u4f1a\u5b58\u7eed\u5206\u6743\u5ea6\u4f4e\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u5305\u62ec\u6574\u4f53\u548c\u90e8\u5206\u5426\u51b3\u6743\u3001\u5f8b\u4ee4\u6743\u3001\u9884\u7b97\u6743\u3001\u5168\u6743\u63d0\u6848\u6743\u3001\u542f\u52a8\u516c\u6295\u6743\uff0c\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u5219\u5305\u62ec\u5185\u9601\u6784\u6210\u51b3\u5b9a\u6743\u3001\u7f62\u514d\u6743\u3001\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u88c1\u6743\u3001\u7f62\u514d\u8bae\u4f1a\u6743\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6743\u529b\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u6700\u9ad8\u5206\u4e3a24\uff0c\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u4e3a16\u5206\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u53ea\u67092\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u8fbe11\u5206\uff1b\u62c9\u7f8e\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u8fbe\u523012\u5206\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5965\u5730\u5229\u3001\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u3001\u82ac\u5170\u3001\u79d8\u9c81\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u4e3a0\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u4e5f\u53ea\u67091\u5206\uff0c\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u53ea\u67094-5\u5206\u3002\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u5904\u4e8e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u5927\u3001\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u5c0f\u7684\u8c61\u9650\u3002\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u3001\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u6d77\u5730\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u6743\u529b\u79bb\u539f\u70b9\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u548c\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u90fd\u5c0f\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e00\u8c61\u9650\u76844\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u603b\u7406\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u5c0f\u3001\u975e\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u4e2d\u6216\u5927\u7684\u5171\u670913\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u653f\u4f53\u5d29\u6e83\u7387\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a25%\uff1b\u4e8c\u8005\u90fd\u9ad8\u7684\u670912\u56fd\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe50%\u3002<a href=\"#_edn16\" name=\"_ednref16\">[16]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u4e0d\u80fd\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u6700\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u2014\u2014\u54e5\u65af\u8fbe\u9ece\u52a0\u548c1999\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u2014\u2014\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u90fd\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u6325\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u667a\u5229\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u548c\u9884\u7b97\u96c6\u6743\u6709\u5173\u3002\u603b\u7edf\u96c6\u6743\u5219\u548c\u9009\u4e3e\u5faa\u73af\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u5728\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u7a0d\u540e\u7684\u201c\u871c\u6708\u9009\u4e3e\u201d(honeymoon election)\u4f1a\u4e00\u65f6\u589e\u5f3a\u67d0\u4e9b\u603b\u7edf\u515a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u603b\u7edf\u662f\u7531\u5bbd\u6cdb\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u8054\u76df\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\u5f53\u9009\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u67091965\u5e74\u7684\u871c\u6708\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u5f17\u83b1\u603b\u7edf\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u901a\u8fc7\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u96c6\u6743\u76841970\u5e74\u4fee\u6b63\u6848\u3002\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u91c7\u7528\u76f8\u5bf9\u591a\u6570\u540c\u6b65\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e24\u515a\u4e3b\u5bfc\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u591a\u6570\u53ef\u538b\u5012\u603b\u7edf\u5426\u51b3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9009\u533a\u89c4\u6a21\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u603b\u7edf\u515a\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u5927\u515a\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u591a\u6570\u515a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8981\u6c42\u8d85\u591a\u6570\u538b\u5012\u5426\u51b3\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\u592a\u5927\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u8981\u6c42\u7b80\u5355\u591a\u6570\u538b\u5012\u5426\u51b3\uff0c\u4f1a\u7ed9\u5c0f\u515a\u4e00\u4e9b\u8c08\u5224\u6743\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5baa\u6cd5\u6388\u6743\u603b\u7edf\u9881\u5e03\u5f8b\u4ee4\uff0c\u5e94\u5f53\u6388\u6743\u8bae\u4f1a\u7b80\u5355\u591a\u6570\u5426\u51b3\u3002<a href=\"#_edn17\" name=\"_ednref17\">[17]<\/a> 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href=\"#_edn18\" name=\"_ednref18\">[18]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u7edf\u6743\u529b\u8fc7\u5927\u7684\u5178\u578b\u662f1993\u5e74\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5baa\u6cd5\u3002\u56fd\u5bb6\u675c\u9a6c\u7684\u8bae\u5458\u79f0\uff0c1993\u5e74\u5baa\u6cd5\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u603b\u7edf\u4e0d\u8bba\u600e\u4e48\u505a\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fdd\u5baa\u3002\u9884\u7b97\u6536\u5165\u4e2d\u592e\u5316\u3001\u8054\u90a6\u5927\u533a\u5efa\u7acb\u3001\u8054\u90a6\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6539\u9769\u3001\u4efb\u514d\u5730\u65b9\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5e76\u89e3\u6563\u5730\u65b9\u8bae\u4f1a\u90fd\u4e0d\u8fdd\u5baa\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201c\u7ba1\u7406\u5f0f\u6c11\u4e3b\u201d\u3002\u201c\u5baa\u6cd5\u5c31\u597d\u6bd4\u4e00\u4e2a\u5267\u672c\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u5bfc\u6f14\u5bbd\u9614\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e2a\u6587\u672c\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7cbe\u82f1\u5236\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u66f2\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u5723\u6b4c\uff0c\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f70\u8f70\u70c8\u70c8\u7684\u2018\u79e9\u5e8f\u2019\u5931\u800c\u590d\u5f97\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u201d<a href=\"#_edn19\" name=\"_ednref19\">[19]<\/a> \u82cf\u8054\u548c\u4e1c\u6b27\u65e0\u7591\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5de8\u53d8\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u6cd5\u56fd\u5927\u9769\u547d\u548c\u4fc4\u56fd\u201c\u5341\u6708\u9769\u547d\u201d\u624d\u80fd\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u6bd4\u3002\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u793e\u4f1a\u9769\u547d\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u90fd\u662f\u4e13\u653f\u800c\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bf41991\u5e74\u653f\u53d8\u5931\u8d25\u66fe\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u5951\u673a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e481993\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u675c\u9a6c\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u5219\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff1b\u53f6\u5229\u94a6\u5229\u7528\u5f3a\u52bf\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u8d85\u603b\u7edf\u5baa\u6cd5\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5baa\u6cd5\u6210\u4e86\u5f3a\u52a0\u800c\u975e\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002<a href=\"#_edn20\" name=\"_ednref20\">[20]<\/a> 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href=\"#_edn21\" name=\"_ednref21\">[21]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5f3a\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e5f\u662f\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8bae\u4f1a\u6bd4\u603b\u7edf\u66f4\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u793e\u4f1a\u591a\u5143\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u8ba9\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7acb\u6cd5\u6743\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<a href=\"#_edn22\" name=\"_ednref22\">[22]<\/a> \u8b6c\u598216\u4e2a\u897f\u6b27\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u67096\u4e2a\u8fd8\u8981\u6c42\u8d85\u591a\u6570\u6539\u53d8\u7a0b\u5e8f\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u8bae\u4f1a\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<a href=\"#_edn23\" name=\"_ednref23\">[23]<\/a> \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5baa\u6cd5\u89c4\u5b9a\u653f\u5e9c\u5168\u6743\u63d0\u8bae\u7acb\u6cd5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u6982\u662f\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u89c4\u5b9a\u6240\u6709\u7acb\u6cd5\u5fc5\u987b\u6765\u81ea\u56fd\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u515a\u5206\u6563\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5bf9\u7acb\u6cd5\u8bae\u7a0b\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u653f\u4f53\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u8b6c\u59827\u4e2a\u62c9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u4eab\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u8bae\u7a0b\u8bbe\u7f6e\u6743\u3002<a href=\"#_edn24\" name=\"_ednref24\">[24]<\/a> \u603b\u7edf\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7acb\u6cd5\u8bae\u7a0b\u7684\u4e13\u6743\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u540e\u5df4\u897f\u548c\u667a\u5229\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5df4\u897f\u653f\u515a\u7eaa\u5f8b\u677e\u6563\u3001\u5730\u65b9\u5dee\u5f02\u5de8\u5927\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u85e4\u68ee\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u79d8\u9c81\u548c2000\u5e74\u5384\u74dc\u591a\u5c14\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb10-15\u5e74\u62c9\u7f8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u906d\u9047\u91cd\u5927\u6cbb\u7406\u5371\u673a\u3002<a href=\"#_edn25\" name=\"_ednref25\">[25]<\/a><\/p>\n<h5>\u516d\u3001 \u7ed3\u8bba<\/h5>\n<p>\u7b14\u8005\u4ee5\u524d\u4e00\u76f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u73a9\u5f97\u8f6c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4ece2020\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u73a9\u4e0d\u8f6c\u4e86\u3002\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u9886\u8896\u5ddd\u666e\u7684\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53f0\u76f4\u63a5\u5a01\u80c1\u4e86\u539f\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5341\u5206\u7a33\u56fa\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6cd5\u6cbb\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u79bb\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u62dc\u767b\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u7279\u8d66\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u513f\u5b50\uff0c<a href=\"#_edn26\" name=\"_ednref26\">[26]<\/a> \u751a\u81f3\u5728\u8003\u8651\u201c\u9884\u9632\u6027\u7279\u8d66\u201d(preventive pardon)\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fdd\u62a4\u53cd\u5ddd\u4eba\u58eb\u4e4b\u540e\u514d\u906d\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002\u62c9\u7f8e\u53ca\u8bb8\u591a\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u6a21\u5f0f\u66f4\u96c6\u6743\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u5bb3\u66f4\u70c8\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u81ea1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u6797\u8328\u6559\u6388\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u7684\u5371\u673a\u201d\u547d\u9898\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e89\u8bae\u8bdd\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u53cc\u65b9\u4e0d\u4e89\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8868\u73b0\u5168\u9762\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u9886\u5148\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u5426\u5236\u5ea6\u672c\u8eab\u5c1a\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u800c\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u7531\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5927\u4f17\u5fc3\u7406\u7b49\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u544a\u522b\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u9009\u62e9\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u8fa9\u62a4\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u89c2\u70b9\u591a\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5236\u5ea6\u7ee9\u6548\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u62c9\u7f8e\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e2a\u6848\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e0d\u96be\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7f18\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u72ec\u88c1\u3001\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ca\u5176\u548c\u8bae\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u51b2\u7a81\u4e0e\u6b7b\u7ed3\u7684\u503e\u5411\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u96be\u5ea6\uff0c\u7edd\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u6837\u677f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u7b14\u8005\u611f\u8c222017\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u5b66\u671f\u53c2\u4e0e\u6838\u5b9e\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u5baa\u6cd5\u5236\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\u201d\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u7684\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u5b66\u9662\u7814\u7a76\u751f\uff09<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" name=\"_edn1\">[1]<\/a> \u6797\u8328\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u6216\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff1f\u300b[Linz, Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference?, pp. 71-73]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\" name=\"_edn2\">[2]<\/a> \u9a6c\u4fee\u00b7\u7d22\u4f2f\u683c\u00b7\u8212\u683c\u7279\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7M\u00b7\u51ef\u91cc\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u4e0e\u8bae\u4f1a\uff1a\u5baa\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u53d8\u6570\u300b[Matthew Soberg Shugart and John M. Carey, <em>Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics<\/em>, Cambridge University Press (2002), p. 44]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref3\" name=\"_edn3\">[3]<\/a> \u65af\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u548c\u9a6c\u4fee\u00b7S\u00b7\u8212\u683c\u7279\u3001\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6279\u5224\u6027\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u300b[Scott Mainwaring and Matthew S. Shugart, Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal, 29 <em>Comparative Politics<\/em> 449-471 (1997), pp. 460-462]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref4\" name=\"_edn4\">[4]<\/a> \u6700\u9700\u8981\u4ef2\u88c1\u7684\u662f\u653f\u4f53\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u7eaf\u7cb9\u603b\u7edf\u5236\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5730\u4f4d\u53ca\u5176\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8fbe\u5230\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u53c2\u89c1\u8212\u683c\u7279\u548c\u51ef\u91cc\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u4e0e\u8bae\u4f1a\uff1a\u5baa\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u53d8\u6570\u300b[Shugart and Carey, <em>Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics<\/em>, p. 48]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref5\" name=\"_edn5\">[5]<\/a> BBC\u65b0\u95fb\u300a\u8bae\u4f1a\u6682\u505c\uff1a\u5973\u738b\u6279\u51c6\u9996\u76f8\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u300b[Parliament suspension: Queen approves PM\u2019s plan, <em>BBC News<\/em>, 28 August 2019, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-49493632]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref6\" name=\"_edn6\">[6]<\/a>\u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u548c\u8212\u683c\u7279\u3001\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6279\u5224\u6027\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u300b[Mainwaring and Shugart, Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal, pp. 450-452]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref7\" name=\"_edn7\">[7]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 453-454.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref8\" name=\"_edn8\">[8]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 465-468.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref9\" name=\"_edn9\">[9]<\/a>\u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u591a\u515a\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u8270\u96be\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u300b[Mainwaring, Presidentialism, Multipartism, and Democracy: The Difficult Combination, pp. 206-207]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref10\" name=\"_edn10\">[10]<\/a> \u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u548c\u8212\u683c\u7279\u3001\u80e1\u5b89\u00b7\u6797\u8328\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6279\u5224\u6027\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u300b[Mainwaring and Shugart, Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal, pp. 465-466]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref11\" name=\"_edn11\">[11]<\/a> \u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u591a\u515a\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u8270\u96be\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u300b[Mainwaring, Presidentialism, Multipartism, and Democracy: The Difficult Combination, pp. 210-212]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref12\" name=\"_edn12\">[12]<\/a> \u867d\u7136\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e5f\u6709\u5c11\u6570\u515a\u6267\u653f\uff0c\u59821945-87\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c345\u4e2a\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5185\u9601\u662f\u5c11\u6570\u515a\uff0c\u5317\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u515a\u653f\u5e9c\u751a\u81f3\u591a\u4e8e\u591a\u6570\u515a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u671f\u9650\u53ea\u670914\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u957f\u8fbe6\u5e74\u3002\u540c\u4e0a, pp. 214-216.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref13\" name=\"_edn13\">[13]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 218-219.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref14\" name=\"_edn14\">[14]<\/a> \u6885\u56e0\u6c83\u6797\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u591a\u515a\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u8270\u96be\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u300b[Mainwaring, Presidentialism, Multipartism, and Democracy: The Difficult Combination, pp. 221-225]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref15\" name=\"_edn15\">[15]<\/a> \u8212\u683c\u7279\u548c\u51ef\u91cc\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u4e0e\u8bae\u4f1a\uff1a\u5baa\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u53d8\u6570\u300b[Shugart and Carey, <em>Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics<\/em>, pp. 148]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref16\" name=\"_edn16\">[16]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 155-157.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref17\" name=\"_edn17\">[17]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 277-283.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref18\" name=\"_edn18\">[18]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 280-282, 285.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref19\" name=\"_edn19\">[19]<\/a> \u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u9ea6\u514b\u798f\u5c14\u3001\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u00b7\u5f7c\u5f97\u7f57\u592b\u548c\u5b89\u5fb7\u70c8\u00b7\u91cc\u4e9a\u535a\u592b\u300a\u5728\u72ec\u88c1\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u95f4\uff1a\u540e\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u300b[Michael McFaul, Nikolai Petrov and Andrei Riabov, <em>Between Dictatorship and Democracy: Russian Post-Communist Political Reform<\/em>, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2004), p. 9.]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref20\" name=\"_edn20\">[20]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 18-20.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref21\" name=\"_edn21\">[21]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a, pp. 292-296.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref22\" name=\"_edn22\">[22]<\/a> \u8212\u683c\u7279\u548c\u51ef\u91cc\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u4e0e\u8bae\u4f1a\uff1a\u5baa\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u53d8\u6570\u300b[Shugart and Carey, <em>Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics<\/em>, p. 165]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref23\" name=\"_edn23\">[23]<\/a> \u52a0\u91cc\u00b7W\u00b7\u8003\u514b\u65af\u300a\u7acb\u6cd5\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u5409\u54c8\u5fb7\u00b7\u7f57\u6587\u4f2f\u683c\u3001\u4f69\u5f17\u91cc\u5c14\u00b7\u65af\u594e\u5c14\u548cD\u00b7\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u57fa\u5a01\u7279\uff08\u7f16\uff09\u300a\u7acb\u6cd5\u673a\u6784\uff1a\u4ee3\u8bae\u5236\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u89c6\u89d2\u300b[Gary W. Cox, On the Effects of Legislative Rules, in Gerhard Loewenberg, Peverill Squire, and D. Roderick Kiewiet eds., <em>Legislatures: Comparative Perspectives on Representative Assemblies<\/em>, pp. 247-248]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref24\" name=\"_edn24\">[24]<\/a> \u540c\u4e0a<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref25\" name=\"_edn25\">[25]<\/a> \u5207\u5e03\u4f2f\u300a\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u3001\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b[Cheibub, <em>Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Democracy<\/em>, pp. 171-174]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref26\" name=\"_edn26\">[26]<\/a> \u5f20\u5343\u5e06\uff1a\u201c\u62dc\u767b\u665a\u8282\u4e0d\u4fdd\uff1f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6cd5\u6cbb\u9762\u4e34\u8003\u9a8c\u201d\uff0c FT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\uff0c2024\u5e7412\u67084\u65e5\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ftchineselive.com\/story\/001104957\">https:\/\/www.ftchineselive.com\/story\/001104957<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8be5\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5b63\u520a\u300b2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63 \u53cd\u601d\u603b\u7edf\u5236\u2014\u2014\u6797\u8328\u547d\u9898\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u4e0e\u7ec6\u5316\uff08\u4e0a\uff09 \u5f20\u5343\u5e06 \u6458\u8981\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u68b3\u7406\u4e86 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6122,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-6","category-light"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6121"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6121\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6124,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6121\/revisions\/6124"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6122"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}