{"id":7181,"date":"2026-09-26T20:08:50","date_gmt":"2026-09-27T00:08:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7181"},"modified":"2026-09-26T20:10:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T00:10:01","slug":"%e5%bb%89%e4%bb%b7%e5%bc%b9%e8%8d%af%e6%94%b9%e5%86%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e8%a7%84%e5%88%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7181","title":{"rendered":"\u5ec9\u4ef7\u5f39\u836f\u6539\u5199\u6218\u4e89\u89c4\u5219"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

* \u4f5c\u8005 Michael C. Horowitz \u662f\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u4e13\u5bb6<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

* \u672c\u6587\u7cfb\u91c7\u7f16\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u672c\u520a\u7acb\u573a\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

* \u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/iran\/how-iran-changed-war-united-states-michael-horowitz<\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

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\u4f0a\u6717\u80fd\u6491\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e9\u6709\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u5b83\u9884\u5148\u89c4\u5212\u4e86\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u9047\u88ad\u540e\u5982\u4f55\u91cd\u7ec4\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u53c8\u8bbe\u6cd5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u4e0a\u5c01\u9501\u4e0b\u8fdb\u53e3\u8db3\u591f\u7269\u8d44\uff0c\u8ba9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4f46\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u56e4\u79ef\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u5ec9\u4ef7\u800c\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u548c\u5bfc\u5f39\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f39\u836f\u8ba9\u5b83\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\u5353\u6709\u6210\u6548\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ba9\u5b83\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c01\u9501\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u904f\u963b\u7f8e\u56fd\u8ba9\u51b2\u7a81\u5347\u7ea7\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

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\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u8fd8\u6765\u81ea\u4e24\u70b9\u3002\u4e00\u662f\u5b83\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u4fee\u5efa\u4e86\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5730\u4e0b\u5bfc\u5f39\u8bbe\u65bd\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u7f8e\u4ee5\u81f3\u4eca\u65e0\u6cd5\u6467\u6bc1\u3002\u4e8c\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u5bfc\u5f39\u751f\u4ea7\u8bbe\u65bd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5206\u6563\uff0c\u66f4\u96be\u88ab\u6467\u6bc1\u3002\u8fd9\u98a0\u8986\u4e86\u201c\u6c99\u6f20\u98ce\u66b4\u201d\u884c\u52a8\u4ee5\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7a7a\u4e2d\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u90a3\u65f6\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u6467\u6bc1\u654c\u65b9\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u5e93\u5b58\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u519b\u961f\u53cd\u800c\u96be\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\uff1fHorowitz \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u519b\u662f\u56f4\u7ed5\u5c11\u91cf\u6602\u8d35\u3001\u96be\u4ee5\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u5c16\u7aef\u6b66\u5668\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u201c\u6218\u65a7\u201d\u5bfc\u5f39\u548cF-35\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6b66\u5668\u7a00\u7f3a\uff0c\u90e8\u961f\u5fc5\u987b\u5904\u5904\u73cd\u60dc\u3001\u907f\u514d\u635f\u5931\u3002\u201c\u7cbe\u786e\u6d77\u91cf\u201d\u5219\u8981\u6c42\u5feb\u901f\u884c\u52a8\u3001\u4e0d\u6c42\u5b8c\u7f8e\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u4f5c\u6218\u7406\u5ff5\u3002\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u6210\u529f\u9020\u5c31\u4e86\u5b98\u50da\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u60ef\u6027\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u6210\u4e86\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u963b\u529b\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u7cbe\u786e\u5236\u5bfc\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u96be\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5148\u8fdb\u6280\u672f\u4f9d\u7136\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5c16\u7aef\u6b66\u5668\u66f4\u96be\u62e6\u622a\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u51fb\u6467\u6bc1\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u201cMaven\u667a\u80fd\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u7b49\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5e73\u53f0\u80fd\u6c47\u603b\u60c5\u62a5\u3001\u63a8\u8350\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7f8e\u519b\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u9891\u7387\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u5957\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u9519\u8bef\u60c5\u62a5\u628a\u4f0a\u6717\u4e00\u6240\u5b66\u6821\u8bef\u6807\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u9020\u6210100\u591a\u540d\u513f\u7ae5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u7a7a\u88ad\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Horowitz \u8fd8\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u9009\u5b9a\u901f\u5ea6\u6781\u5feb\uff0c\u4f1a\u52a0\u5927\u201c\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u504f\u5dee\u201d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u5236\u7ea6\u7f8e\u519b\u4f5c\u6218\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u5df2\u4e0d\u662f\u60c5\u62a5\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f39\u836f\u5e93\u5b58\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728AI\u4e0a\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u6570\u636e\u67b6\u6784\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u6240\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u5927\u591a\u57282025\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u65e9\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u6a21\u578b\u8ffd\u4e0a\u6765\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u80fd\u6253\u9020\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u636eAnthropic\u79f0\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u5c31\u66fe\u8bd5\u56fe\u7528Claude\u6765\u9501\u5b9a\u7f8e\u519b\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u5404\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u95fb\u98ce\u800c\u52a8\u3002\u671d\u9c9c\u4ece\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u201c\u6c99\u5e0c\u5fb7\u201d\u7684\u6280\u672f\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u8bbe\u5907\u3002\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9a\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u4e0e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5236\u9020\u5546\u7b7e\u7ea6\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea710\u4e07\u67b6\u5355\u5411\u653b\u51fb\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u3002\u6ce2\u5170\u7684\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u4e0e\u53cd\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u5f00\u652f\u4ece2023\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u7ea62700\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u589e\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u7ea669\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6cd5\u3001\u5fb7\u3001\u82f1\u7b49\u516d\u4e2a\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u8ba1\u5212\u8054\u5408\u7814\u53d1\u5c04\u7a0b\u8d85\u8fc7300\u82f1\u91cc\u3001\u76ee\u6807\u9020\u4ef7\u4f4e\u4e8e10\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u3002\u6c99\u7279\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u4eff\u201c\u6c99\u5e0c\u5fb7\u201d\u7684\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\uff0c\u636e\u79f0\u5c04\u7a0b\u8d85\u8fc7900\u82f1\u91cc\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u6267\u653f\u515a\u7533\u8bf7\u4e86\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684556\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u56fd\u9632\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u5927\u6279\u91c7\u8d2d\u653b\u51fb\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u3002\u5728\u9632\u5fa1\u7aef\uff0c\u5b9a\u5411\u80fd\u6b66\u5668\u3001\u9ad8\u529f\u7387\u5fae\u6ce2\u548c\u5ec9\u4ef7\u62e6\u622a\u5f39\u90fd\u5728\u7814\u53d1\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5df2\u5728\u90e8\u7f72\u5355\u4ef7\u4ec51400\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u62e6\u622a\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u76ee\u524d\u90fd\u8fd8\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Horowitz \u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u81f3\u5c11\u6682\u65f6\u62b9\u5e73\u4e86\u5bcc\u56fd\u4e0e\u7a77\u56fd\u5728\u8fdb\u653b\u80fd\u529b\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u53d1\u5c55\u201c\u7cbe\u786e\u6d77\u91cf\u201d\uff0c\u5927\u529b\u6295\u8d44\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u9632\u5fa1\uff0c\u5e76\u8c03\u6574\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ed3\u6784\u6765\u7528\u597d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4f46\u963b\u529b\u4e0d\u5c0f\u3002\u56fd\u9632\u5b98\u5458\u4e60\u60ef\u4e86\u5c16\u7aef\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1b\u9884\u7b97\u4e00\u65e6\u7f29\u51cf\uff0c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f18\u5148\u4fdd\u7559\u8001\u65e7\u88c5\u5907\uff1b\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u53c8\u5728\u9891\u7e41\u66f4\u6362\u519b\u653f\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u63a8\u52a8\u6539\u9769\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u82e5\u60f3\u4fdd\u4f4f\u519b\u4e8b\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u50cf\u51b7\u6218\u521a\u7ed3\u675f\u90a3\u6837\u884c\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Horowitz \u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u5438\u53d6\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u5438\u53d6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u7cbe\u826f\u3001\u6602\u8d35\u3001\u96be\u4ee5\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u6253\u8d62\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u4fdd\u62a4\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u66f4\u4f55\u51b5\u5b83\u6b63\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u7528\u6765\u5a01\u6151\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b49\u56fd\u7684\u5bfc\u5f39\u5e93\u5b58\u3002\u201d<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

* \u4f5c\u8005 Michael C. Horowitz \u662f\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u4e13\u5bb6 * \u672c\u6587\u7cfb\u91c7\u7f16\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":7182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-6"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7181"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7181\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7186,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7181\/revisions\/7186"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}