{"id":7214,"date":"2026-09-28T18:04:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T22:04:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7214"},"modified":"2026-09-28T19:19:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T23:19:26","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e5%a4%a7%e8%a5%bf%e6%b4%8b%e6%9c%88%e5%88%8a%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%9a%e5%8f%b0%e6%b9%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%b0%b1%e6%ad%a4%e6%94%be%e5%bc%83%e5%90%97%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7214","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\uff1a\u53f0\u6e7e\u4f1a\u5c31\u6b64\u653e\u5f03\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\u8bb0\u8005\u897f\u8499\u00b7\u8212\u65af\u7279\uff08Simon Shuster\uff09\u5728\u5cf0\u4f1a\u524d\u4e24\u5468\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8fd9\u7bc7\u957f\u7bc7\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\uff1a\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u52a8\u6447\u7684\u4e5f\u8bb8\u9996\u5148\u4e0d\u662f\u519b\u529b\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u636e\u4ed6\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u4eca\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f”\u503c\u5f97\u4fe1\u8d56\u7684\u76df\u53cb”\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u9009\u6c11\u4e0d\u5230\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u8bbf\u4eac\u5f52\u6765\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e24\u5cb8”\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u4eba”\uff1b\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u9662\u5219\u780d\u6389\u4e86\u6276\u6301\u672c\u571f\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u5317\u4eac\u6216\u8bb8\u65e0\u9700\u5f00\u4e00\u67aa\uff0c\u4ec5\u51ed\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6d41\u5931\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u76ee\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u5173\u5fc3\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u4e0d\u53ea\u5728\u519b\u4e8b\u5c42\u9762\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u662f\u534e\u4eba\u793e\u4f1a\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u5b83\u80fd\u5426\u5b58\u7eed\uff0c\u5173\u7cfb\u5230”\u4e2d\u534e\u6587\u5316\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e0d\u76f8\u5bb9”\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u8c03\u80fd\u5426\u88ab\u5b9e\u8df5\u53cd\u9a73\u3002\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5f53\u9009\u8005\u4e0d\u4e3b\u5f20\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u7559\u81ea\u7531\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0e\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u524d\u8f66\u4e4b\u9274\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5bf9\u7167\u683c\u5916\u523a\u773c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u8bfb\u8005\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u6001\u5ea6\u76f8\u5f53\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u79f0\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u4e3a”\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005”\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005\u4e2a\u4eba\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u672c\u4eba\u5219\u575a\u79f0\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u6cd5\u6cbb\u90fd\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u505a\u4efb\u4f55\u727a\u7272\u6216\u59a5\u534f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6765\u6e90\u3011\uff1aSimon Shuster, “Will Taiwan Just Give Up?”<\/a>, The Atlantic\uff0c2026\u5e7410\u6708\u53f7\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u7248\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e2026\u5e749\u67088\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7279\u522b\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a\u672c\u7a3f\u662f\u7f16\u8bd1\u8ff0\u8bc4\uff0c\u4ee5\u8f6c\u8ff0\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5f15\u8bed\u5f88\u77ed\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5168\u6587\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"
Cheng-Chia Huang for The Atlantic<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684”\u9e21\u6c64”<\/strong>
\n\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8bbe\u5348\u5bb4\u6b3e\u5f85\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u7387\u9886\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u4ee3\u8868\u56e2\u3002\u5e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u7279\u610f\u63d0\u5230\u684c\u4e0a\u90a3\u9053\u9e21\u6c64\u86e4\u870a\uff0c\u8bf41972\u5e74\u5317\u4eac\u62db\u5f85\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u7684\u56fd\u5bb4\u4e0a\u4e5f\u6709\u8fd9\u9053\u83dc\u3002\u636e\u4e24\u4f4d\u5728\u573a\u8005\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5f53\u5929\u4e00\u53cd\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u8c08\u7b11\u98ce\u751f\uff0c\u4ed6\u548c\u968f\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u8fd8\u90fd\u6253\u4e86\u8c61\u5f81\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u7684\u84dd\u8272\u9886\u5e26\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5728\u628a\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u7684\u4e24\u5cb8\u65b9\u6848\u6bd4\u4f5c\u5f53\u5e74\u5316\u654c\u4e3a\u53cb\u7684\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u8bbf\u534e\u3002\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u4e8b\u540e\u5bf9\u4f5c\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u6b64\u884c\u8ba9\u5979\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e24\u5cb8\u201c\u540c\u6587\u540c\u79cd\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u4e00\u5207\u7686\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u4eba\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5d29\u584c\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd”\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b”<\/strong>
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\u4f5c\u8005\u5217\u4e3e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u51e0\u65b9\u9762\uff1a<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \u81ea\u4eca\u5e742\u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u5f00\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u519b\u8230\u673a\u4ece\u4e9a\u6d32\u8c03\u5f80\u4e2d\u4e1c\uff1b\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ea6\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u5148\u8fdb\u9632\u7a7a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5e93\u5b58\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u8017\u6389\u3002<\/li>\n
  • 5\u6708\u8bbf\u534e\u540e\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u628a\u5bf9\u53f0\u519b\u552e\u79f0\u4e3a\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u201c\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u7b79\u7801\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u8bf4\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6700\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u8fdc\u57289,500\u82f1\u91cc\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n
  • \u53bb\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u6279\u51c6\u4e86\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684110\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5bf9\u53f0\u519b\u552e\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u5317\u4eac\u8b66\u544a\u7f8e\u65b9\u8981\u201c\u6781\u5176\u8c28\u614e\u201d\u3002\u767d\u5bab\u968f\u5373\u51b3\u5b9a\u6682\u7f13\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u519b\u552e\uff0c\u7b49\u4e24\u56fd\u5143\u9996\u9762\u8c08\u540e\u518d\u5b9a\u30025\u6708\u5cf0\u4f1a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u519b\u552e\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u6401\u7f6e\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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    \u4f5c\u8005\u63a2\u8bbf\u4e86\u53f0\u6e7e”\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u56fd\u5bb6\u961f”\u7684\u4e3b\u529b\u96f7\u864e\u79d1\u6280\u3002\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u4e3b\u4e1a\u662f\u7259\u79d1\u5668\u68b0\u548c\u9065\u63a7\u73a9\u5177\uff0c\u6309\u76ee\u524d\u4ea7\u80fd\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u4e00\u5bb6\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5de5\u5382\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u4ea7\u91cf\uff08\u7ea64,000\u67b6\uff09\u9700\u8981\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u95e8\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u7ea620\u4e07\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u56db\u3001”\u8c6a\u732a\u6218\u7565”\u4e3a\u4f55\u8fdf\u8fdf\u96be\u4ee5\u843d\u5730<\/strong>
    \n1995\u81f31996\u5e74\u53f0\u6d77\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u822a\u6bcd”\u5c3c\u7c73\u5179\u53f7”\u9a76\u8fc7\u53f0\u6e7e\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u6307\u6325\u6f5c\u8247”\u6d77\u9f99\u53f7”\u7684\u674e\u559c\u660e\u56de\u5fc6\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u201c\u4e00\u70b9\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5bb3\u6015\u201d\u3002\u800c\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\u201c\u6211\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u79cd\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e86\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

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    \u4f5c\u8005\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u96be\u4ee5\u6253\u7834\u7684\u5faa\u73af\uff1a\u53f0\u6e7e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u62b5\u6297\u610f\u5fd7\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ecb\u5165\uff1b\u53f0\u6e7e\u8d8a\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ecb\u5165\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6295\u964d\u3002\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u7acb\u59d4\u3001\u9000\u5f79\u6d77\u519b\u4e0a\u5c06\u9648\u6c38\u5eb7\u5bf9\u4f5c\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u767b\u9646\u5c31\u201c\u4e3a\u65f6\u5df2\u665a\u201d\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u53f0\u6e7e\u3002\u4ed6\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u758f\u6563\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u51cf\u5c11\u4f24\u4ea1\u3002\u636e\u9000\u5f79\u7f8e\u519b\u5c11\u5c06\u8499\u54e5\u9a6c\u5229\uff08Mark Montgomery\uff09\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u9a7b\u53f0\u7f8e\u519b\u7ea6500\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u516d\u3001\u90d1\u4e3d\u6587\u7684”\u548c\u5e73\u65b9\u6848”<\/strong>
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    \u4e03\u3001\u91d1\u95e8\uff1a\u4ece\u524d\u7ebf\u5230”\u793a\u8303\u533a”<\/strong>
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    \n

    \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n
    \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n
    \n

    \n

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