{"id":7308,"date":"2026-10-03T18:21:27","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T22:21:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7308"},"modified":"2026-10-03T18:32:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T22:32:24","slug":"7308","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7308","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49 — \u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5b63\u520a\u300b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7f16\u6309<\/h2>\n

2002 \u5e74\uff0c\u5217\u7ef4\u8328\u57fa\u4e0e\u97e6\uff08Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way\uff09\u5728\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5b63\u520a\u300b\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\uff1a\u9009\u4e3e\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u6267\u653f\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6ee5\u7528\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u4f7f\u7ade\u4e89\u5931\u53bb\u516c\u5e73\u3002\u672c\u6587\u662f\u4e24\u4eba\u9996\u6b21\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u7528\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff1a\u6309\u5176\u5341\u4e00\u9879\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b26\u5408\u4e94\u9879\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u4e0e\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u5308\u7259\u5229\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4f46\u8fdc\u8f83\u53f6\u5229\u94a6\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6e29\u548c\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u7ec6\u81f4\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u53f8\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u5668\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u201d\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff1a\u8d77\u8bc9\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u5b9a\u7f6a\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u60e9\u7f5a\u201d\uff1b\u653f\u5e9c\u5408\u540c\u4e0e\u76d1\u7ba1\u5ba1\u6279\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u81ea\u6211\u7ea6\u675f\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u540c\u65f6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u4e0e\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u6784\u6210\u201c\u6297\u8861\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u201d\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u96be\u4ee5\u5de9\u56fa\uff1b\u5373\u4fbf\u5c06\u6765\u653f\u515a\u8f6e\u66ff\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u636e\u6b64\u5012\u63a8\u8fd9\u51e0\u5e74\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u5217\u4e3e\u7684\u8d77\u8bc9\u3001\u6267\u6cd5\u81f4\u6b7b\u3001\u5a92\u4f53\u6613\u624b\u7b49\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u591a\u4e3a\u4f5c\u8005\u63f4\u5f15\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u7f6a\u540d\u7275\u5f3a\u201d\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u62a5\u590d\u201d\u7b49\u5b9a\u6027\u4ea6\u4e3a\u4f5c\u8005\u672c\u4eba\u5224\u65ad\uff1b\u8bfb\u8005\u5b9c\u5c06\u672c\u6587\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5f85\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6765\u6e90<\/h2>\n

Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, “Competitive Authoritarianism in America,” Journal of Democracy<\/em> 37, no. 4 (October 2026): 5\u201325. DOI: 10.1353\/jod.2026.a1001893
\n\u539f\u6587\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.journalofdemocracy.org\/articles\/competitive-authoritarianism-in-america\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb\uff08\u636e\u539f\u6587\uff09\uff1a\u5217\u7ef4\u8328\u57fa\uff08Steven Levitsky\uff09\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66 David Rockefeller \u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u8bb2\u5e2d\u6559\u6388\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\uff1b\u97e6\uff08Lucan A. Way\uff09\uff0c\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u5927\u5b66\u6c11\u4e3b\u7814\u7a76\u6770\u51fa\u6559\u6388\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u539f\u6587\u8bba\u8ff0\u7684\u7f16\u8bd1\u6458\u8981\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u5177\u4f53\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5747\u51fa\u81ea\u4f5c\u8005\u63f4\u5f15\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u8be6\u89c1\u4ee5\u4e0a\u539f\u6587\u5c3e\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"
Lucan Way (\u5de6) and Steven Levitsky (\u53f3)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49<\/h3>\n
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  • \u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong> \u5404\u653f\u515a\u53c2\u52a0\u6709\u5b9e\u9645\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u4f46\u6267\u653f\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6ee5\u7528\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u4f7f\u7ade\u4e89\u73af\u5883\u5411\u81ea\u5df1\u503e\u659c\u3002\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u5408\u6cd5\u3001\u516c\u5f00\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u628a\u9009\u4e3e\u89c6\u4e3a\u53d6\u5f97\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u6267\u653f\u8005\u6709\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u843d\u8d25\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6709\uff1a\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a 2018 \u5e74\u3001\u6ce2\u5170 2023 \u5e74\u3001\u535a\u8328\u74e6\u7eb3 2024 \u5e74\u3001\u5308\u7259\u5229 2026 \u5e74\u3002<\/li>\n
  • \u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff1a<\/strong> \u4e0d\u5728\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u7ade\u4e89\u662f\u5426\u516c\u5e73\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u5305\u542b\u4fdd\u969c\u516c\u6c11\u81ea\u7531\u4e0e\u516c\u5e73\u7ade\u4e89\u3002<\/li>\n
  • \u5e38\u89c1\u624b\u6cd5\uff1a<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n
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    4. \u8ba9\u68c0\u5bdf\u673a\u5173\u548c\u6cd5\u9662\u5bf9\u4eb2\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u6216\u821e\u5f0a\u89c6\u800c\u4e0d\u89c1\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
        \n
      • \u7a0b\u5ea6\u5dee\u522b\u5f88\u5927\uff1a<\/strong> \u4e00\u7aef\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684 2015\u201323 \u5e74\u6ce2\u5170\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7aef\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u72ec\u88c1\u7684 20 \u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u6d25\u5df4\u5e03\u97e6\u3002<\/li>\n
      • \u65b0\u65e7\u4e24\u7c7b\uff1a<\/strong> 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u591a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u529b\u5f31\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u201d\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u5308\u7259\u5229\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u3001\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\uff0c\u662f\u4ece\u53f8\u6cd5\u548c\u5b98\u50da\u4f53\u7cfb\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9000\u5316\u800c\u6765\uff0c\u6267\u653f\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u6e05\u6d17\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u7528\u4f5c\u6b66\u5668\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \u4e8c\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u5668\u7684\u201c\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u201d<\/h3>\n
          \n
        • \u6e05\u6d17\u4e0e\u88c1\u5458\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e 2025 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u4e0a\u4efb\u540e\uff0c\u628a\u804c\u4e1a\u5b98\u5458\u6392\u6324\u51fa\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\u3001\u8054\u90a6\u8c03\u67e5\u5c40\u3001\u56fd\u571f\u5b89\u5168\u90e8\u4e43\u81f3\u519b\u65b9\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u6362\u4e0a\u6548\u5fe0\u8005\u3002\u65b0\u8bbe\u7684\u201c\u653f\u5e9c\u6548\u7387\u90e8\u201d\uff08DOGE\uff09\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u521d\u8feb\u4f7f\u8fd1 30 \u4e07\u540d\u516c\u52a1\u5458\u79bb\u804c\uff0c\u7ea6\u5360\u8054\u90a6\u96c7\u5458\u7684 12%\u3002<\/li>\n
        • \u8c03\u67e5\u4e0e\u8d77\u8bc9\u653f\u654c\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\u5bf9\u6570\u5341\u540d\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u7269\u548c\u77e5\u540d\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u7acb\u6848\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5c11\u7f6a\u540d\u5728\u4f5c\u8005\u770b\u6765\u201c\u7275\u5f3a\u6216\u8f7b\u5fae\u201d\uff1a\n
            \n
          1. \u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u603b\u68c0\u5bdf\u957f\u83b1\u8482\u897f\u5a05\u00b7\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u88ab\u63a7\u623f\u8d37\u6b3a\u8bc8\uff1b<\/li>\n
          2. \u524d\u8054\u90a6\u8c03\u67e5\u5c40\u5c40\u957f\u79d1\u7c73\u4e24\u5ea6\u88ab\u8d77\u8bc9\uff1b<\/li>\n
          3. \u4f17\u8bae\u5458\u9ea6\u57fa\u5f17\u56e0\u8fdb\u5165\u79fb\u6c11\u62d8\u7559\u4e2d\u5fc3\u65f6\u201c\u59a8\u788d\u8054\u90a6\u5b98\u5458\u201d\u88ab\u8d77\u8bc9\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u6700\u9ad8 17 \u5e74\u5211\u671f\uff1b<\/li>\n
          4. \u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6350\u6b3e\u4eba\u548c\u7b79\u6b3e\u5e73\u53f0 ActBlue \u906d\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u6c11\u6743\u7ec4\u7ec7\u201c\u5357\u65b9\u8d2b\u56f0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u201d\u88ab\u8d77\u8bc9\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            \u636e\u8def\u900f\u793e\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5230 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709 470 \u4e2a\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u673a\u6784\u6210\u4e3a\u201c\u62a5\u590d\u5bf9\u8c61\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n

          5. \u201c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5373\u60e9\u7f5a\u201d\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u53f8\u6cd5\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u88ab\u8c03\u67e5\u8005\u5f88\u5c11\u4f1a\u88ab\u5b9a\u7f6a\uff0c\u4f46\u8c03\u67e5\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u9a9a\u6270\uff1a\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u6355\u3001\u88ab\u66dd\u5149\u3001\u906d\u7f51\u7edc\u5a01\u80c1\u3001\u88ab\u6267\u6cd5\u4eba\u5458\u8e72\u5b88\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u80cc\u8d1f\u5de8\u989d\u5f8b\u5e08\u8d39\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7406\u4e8b\u4e3d\u838e\u00b7\u5e93\u514b\u4ec5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0e\u5b89\u4fdd\u5f00\u652f\u5c31\u8fbe 130 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n
          6. \u5f8b\u6240\u4e0e\u5927\u5b66\uff1a<\/strong>\n
              \n
            1. 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7684\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u628a\u4e0e\u653f\u654c\u6709\u5173\u7684\u5927\u578b\u5f8b\u6240\u5217\u5165\u9ed1\u540d\u5355\u3002\u5305\u62ec Paul Weiss \u5728\u5185\u7684\u4e5d\u5bb6\u5927\u6240\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u627f\u8bfa\u63d0\u4f9b\u8fd1 10 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u65e0\u507f\u6cd5\u5f8b\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/li>\n
            2. \u8054\u90a6\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u81f3\u5c11 75 \u6240\u5927\u5b66\u7acb\u6848\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u516d\u6240\u5927\u5b66\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u652f\u4ed8\u8fd1 4 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5730\u8ba9\u6e21\u4e86\u5b66\u672f\u81ea\u4e3b\u3002<\/li>\n
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                \n
              1. \u8c03\u67e5\u516c\u5171\u5e7f\u64ad\u673a\u6784 PBS \u548c NPR\uff1b<\/li>\n
              2. \u4ee5\u540a\u9500\u5730\u65b9\u53f0\u6267\u7167\u76f8\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u8feb\u4f7f\u6df1\u591c\u8282\u76ee\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u5409\u7c73\u00b7\u574e\u6469\u5c14\u505c\u64ad\uff1b<\/li>\n
              3. 2026 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u4e0b\u4ee4\u52a0\u901f\u5ba1\u67e5 ABC \u65d7\u4e0b\u6240\u6709\u5730\u65b9\u53f0\u6267\u7167\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
              4. \u516c\u6c11\u81ea\u7531\uff1a<\/strong> \u636e\u4f5c\u8005\u63f4\u5f15\u7684\u62a5\u9053\uff1a\n
                  \n
                1. \u56fd\u571f\u5b89\u5168\u90e8\u5728\u591a\u5730\u90e8\u7f72\u8499\u9762\u6267\u6cd5\u4eba\u5458\uff1b\u622a\u81f3 2025 \u5e74 10 \u6708\uff0cProPublica \u53d1\u73b0 170 \u591a\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u6c11\u88ab\u79fb\u6c11\u6267\u6cd5\u5c40\u975e\u6cd5\u62d8\u62bc\u3002<\/li>\n
                2. 2026 \u5e74 1 \u6708\uff0c\u4e24\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u6c11\u5728\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u88ab\u8054\u90a6\u4eba\u5458\u6253\u6b7b\uff0c\u4e8b\u540e\u65e2\u65e0\u8054\u90a6\u8d77\u8bc9\uff0c\u201c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba4\u771f\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n
                3. 2025 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u7684\u7b2c 7 \u53f7\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u603b\u7edf\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff08NSPM-7\uff09\u628a\u201c\u56fd\u5185\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u5b9a\u4e49\u5f97\u5f88\u5bbd\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u5927\u6279\u53cd\u79fb\u6c11\u6267\u6cd5\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u8005\u4ee5\u201c\u72af\u7f6a\u5171\u8c0b\u201d\u88ab\u8d77\u8bc9\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  \u4e09\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u573a\u57df\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u503e\u659c<\/h3>\n
                    \n
                  • \u5a92\u4f53\u683c\u5c40\uff1a<\/strong> \u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e3a\u907f\u514d\u62a5\u590d\u6216\u4e89\u53d6\u653f\u5e9c\u5408\u540c\uff0c\u591a\u5bb6\u5a92\u4f53\u8c03\u6574\u4e86\u7f16\u8f91\u65b9\u9488\uff1a\n
                      \n
                    1. \u8d1d\u7d22\u65af\u7684\u84dd\u8272\u8d77\u6e90\u516c\u53f8\u63e1\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u56fd\u9632\u5408\u540c\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e8c\u6b21\u5c31\u804c\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\u6539\u7ec4\u300a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u3001\u4f7f\u5176\u8bc4\u8bba\u7acb\u573a\u53f3\u8f6c\uff0c\u4f3c\u5728\u4fdd\u62a4\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5408\u540c\u3002<\/li>\n
                    2. CBS \u6bcd\u516c\u53f8\u6d3e\u62c9\u8499\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u5408\u5e76\u5ba1\u6279\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5c31\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8bc9\u8bbc\u8fbe\u6210\u548c\u89e3\uff0c\u505c\u64ad\u79d1\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\u7684\u8282\u76ee\uff0c\u5e76\u6536\u7d27\u5bf9\u300a60 \u5206\u949f\u300b\u7684\u7f16\u8f91\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/li>\n
                    3. \u5408\u5e76\u5b8c\u6210\u540e\uff0c\u4e0e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5173\u7cfb\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u5bb6\u65cf\u638c\u63a7 CBS\uff1b\u82e5\u540e\u7eed\u5e76\u8d2d\u5b8c\u6210\uff0cCNN \u4e5f\u5c06\u5f52\u5176\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/li>\n
                    4. FCC \u4e3b\u5e2d\u5361\u5c14\u5728 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u52a8\u5927\u4f1a\uff08CPAC\uff09\u4e0a\u5386\u6570\u201c\u6218\u679c\u201d\uff0c\u79f0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u201c\u6b63\u5728\u83b7\u80dc\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
                    5. \u7ade\u9009\u8d44\u91d1\uff1a<\/strong>\n
                        \n
                      1. \u636e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5230 2025 \u5e74\u79cb\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5df2\u4ece\u4f01\u4e1a\u6350\u6b3e\u4eba\u5904\u7b79\u5f97 19 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n
                      2. \u5176\u8d85\u7ea7\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u52a8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08super PAC\uff0c\u53ef\u65e0\u9650\u989d\u6536\u6b3e\u3001\u4f46\u53ea\u80fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5f00\u652f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u56e2\u4f53\uff092025 \u5e74\u7b79\u6b3e\u662f\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u671f\u9996\u5e74\u7684\u4e94\u500d\u3002<\/li>\n
                      3. 2026 \u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u65b9\u9762\u6b64\u7c7b\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
                      4. \u6cd5\u5f8b\u4ee3\u7406\uff1a<\/strong> \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u671f\uff0c\u6311\u6218\u603b\u7edf\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\u7684\u8bc9\u8bbc\u4e2d\u6709 75% \u7531\u5927\u578b\u5f8b\u6240\u4ee3\u7406\u539f\u544a\uff1b2025 \u5e74\u524d\u4e5d\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u964d\u5230 15%\u3002<\/li>\n
                      5. \u9009\u533a\u5212\u5206\uff1a<\/strong> \u7279\u6717\u666e\u63a8\u52a8\u5f97\u514b\u8428\u65af\u7b49\u5171\u548c\u515a\u5dde\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u4e4b\u95f4\u91cd\u5212\u9009\u533a\uff0c\u4ee5\u4eba\u4e3a\u64cd\u7eb5\u9009\u533a\u8fb9\u754c\uff08\u4fd7\u79f0\u201c\u6770\u5229\u877e\u8788\u201d\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\n
                          \n
                        1. \u4f5c\u8005\u79f0\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u9996\u6b21\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\u53d1\u52a8\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u9009\u533a\u64cd\u7eb5\u6765\u201c\u5236\u9020\u201d\u7acb\u6cd5\u591a\u6570\u3002<\/li>\n
                        2. \u622a\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u9884\u8ba1\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u8d62 10 \u4e2a\u9009\u533a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u666e\u9009\u7968\u843d\u540e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4ecd\u63a7\u5236\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                          \u56db\u3001\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u6253\u5206\u201d<\/h3>\n
                            \n
                          • \u7b26\u5408\u4e94\u9879\uff1a<\/strong> \u6309 2010 \u5e74\u4e13\u8457\u7684\u5341\u4e00\u9879\u6807\u51c6\uff08\u6ee1\u8db3\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u9879\u5373\u7b97\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b26\u5408\u4e94\u9879\uff1a\n
                              \n
                            1. \u9009\u4e3e\u7ade\u4e89\u573a\u57df\u4e0d\u516c\uff08\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u9009\u533a\u64cd\u7eb5\uff09\uff1b<\/li>\n
                            2. \u9891\u7e41\u9a9a\u6270\u5a92\u4f53\uff1b<\/li>\n
                            3. \u4fb5\u72af\u4e2a\u4eba\u516c\u6c11\u81ea\u7531\uff08\u4ee5\u53f8\u6cd5\u624b\u6bb5\u9a9a\u6270\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\uff09\uff1b<\/li>\n
                            4. \u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6743\u4e0e\u7acb\u573a\uff1b<\/li>\n
                            5. \u7ade\u9009\u8d44\u91d1\u5931\u8861\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
                            6. \u6bd4\u8f83\uff1a<\/strong> \u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u4e0e\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u5308\u7259\u5229\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4fb5\u72af\u516c\u6c11\u81ea\u7531\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u7ade\u4e89\u573a\u57df\u7684\u503e\u659c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\uff1b\u6bd4\u53f6\u5229\u94a6\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u7c73\u6d1b\u820d\u7ef4\u5947\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u585e\u5c14\u7ef4\u4e9a\u6e29\u548c\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u540e\u4e24\u8005\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u9009\u4e3e\u821e\u5f0a\u3002<\/li>\n
                            7. \u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u5411\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u201d\uff1f<\/strong> \u4f5c\u8005\u627f\u8ba4\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u4e0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5982 1917\u201320 \u5e74\u201c\u7ea2\u8272\u6050\u614c\u201d\u3001\u4e8c\u6218\u65f6\u62d8\u7981\u65e5\u88d4\u3001\u9ea6\u5361\u9521\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5357\u65b9\u9ed1\u4eba\u76f4\u5230 1960 \u5e74\u4ee3\u624d\u83b7\u5f97\u516c\u6c11\u6743\u548c\u6295\u7968\u6743\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4f5c\u8005\u53ea\u62ff 1965 \u5e74\u300a\u6295\u7968\u6743\u6cd5\u300b\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5386\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\u4f5c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/li>\n
                            8. \u4e0e\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a<\/strong> \u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u540c\u6837\u8bd5\u56fe\u628a\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u5668\u7528\u4f5c\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u53d7\u632b\uff1a\n
                                \n
                              1. \u201c\u654c\u4eba\u540d\u5355\u201d\u4ece\u672a\u771f\u6b63\u4ed8\u8bf8\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\u6ca1\u6709\u8d77\u8bc9\u540d\u5355\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u56fd\u7a0e\u5c40\u62d2\u7edd\u7528\u67e5\u7a0e\u6574\u4eba\uff1b<\/li>\n
                              2. \u9488\u5bf9\u5de6\u7ffc\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u201c\u4f11\u65af\u987f\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\uff08\u7a83\u542c\u3001\u62c6\u4fe1\u7b49\uff09\u672a\u83b7\u603b\u7edf\u7b7e\u6279\uff1b<\/li>\n
                              3. \u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u52a8\u7528\u56fd\u5bb6\u6743\u529b\u80c1\u8feb\u5927\u5b66\u6216\u91cd\u5851\u5a92\u4f53\u683c\u5c40\uff1b<\/li>\n
                              4. \u6700\u7ec8\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u5f39\u52be\u65f6\u8f9e\u804c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
                              5. \u201c\u6c34\u95e8\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\uff1a<\/strong> \u5386\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u4fdd\u6301\u4e86\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\u4e0e\u8054\u90a6\u8c03\u67e5\u5c40\u7684\u53bb\u653f\u6cbb\u5316\u3002\u514b\u6797\u987f\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\u4efb\u547d\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u68c0\u5bdf\u5b98\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u672c\u4eba\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u5f39\u52be\uff1b\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\uff0c\u5176\u5b50\u88ab\u8d77\u8bc9\u5e76\u5b9a\u7f6a\u3002<\/li>\n
                              6. \u6307\u6570\u4f50\u8bc1\uff1a<\/strong> \u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u591a\u6837\u6027\u201d\uff08V-Dem\uff09\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u7684\u5f97\u5206\uff080 \u5230 1\uff09\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u81f3 2024 \u5e74\u95f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728 0.75 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u9aa4\u964d\u81f3 0.57\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u52a0\u7eb3\u3001\u6ce2\u5170\u548c\u82cf\u91cc\u5357\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                \u4e94\u3001\u4e3a\u4f55\u96be\u4ee5\u5de9\u56fa<\/h3>\n
                                  \n
                                • \u6c11\u610f\uff1a<\/strong> \u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u3002\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e03\u516b\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5f3a\u4eba\uff0c\u5982\u5e03\u514b\u83b1\u3001\u67e5\u97e6\u65af\u3001\u85e4\u68ee\uff0c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5de9\u56fa\u6743\u529b\u3002\u79d8\u9c81\u7684\u5361\u65af\u8482\u7565\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u5c39\u9521\u60a6\u5728\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e0d\u8db3 30% \u65f6\u53d1\u52a8\u201c\u81ea\u6211\u653f\u53d8\u201d\uff0c\u90fd\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u671f\u5934\u4e24\u5e74\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e00\u76f4\u5728 40% \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5f3a\u884c\u593a\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n
                                • \u201c\u6297\u8861\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u201d\uff1a<\/strong> \u66f4\u6839\u672c\u7684\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u6297\u8861\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u201d\uff0c\u6307\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u53ef\u4f9b\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u52a8\u7528\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u6e90\u603b\u548c\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u3001\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u66f4\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u516c\u6c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u66f4\u96be\u88ab\u6536\u4e70\u6216\u606b\u5413\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u4ec5\u902e\u6355\u4e00\u4e2a\u970d\u591a\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u65af\u57fa\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u4e25\u91cd\u524a\u5f31\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u7b79\u6b3e\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n
                                • \u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f53\u91cf\uff1a<\/strong>\n
                                    \n
                                  1. \u4eba\u5747 GDP \u662f 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u53f0\u6e7e\u30012020 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5308\u7259\u5229\u548c\u6ce2\u5170\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1b<\/li>\n
                                  2. 1000 \u4e07\u4e2a\u5bb6\u5ead\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u81f3\u5c11 25 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c62 \u5bb6\u5f8b\u6240\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u8d85\u8fc7 10 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b<\/li>\n
                                  3. \u6709 150 \u591a\u4e07\u4e2a\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u7ea6 37 \u4e07\u5ea7\u6559\u5802\u3001\u8fd1 1700 \u6240\u79c1\u7acb\u975e\u8425\u5229\u9ad8\u6821\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
                                  4. \u62b5\u6d88\u6548\u679c\uff1a<\/strong>\n
                                      \n
                                    1. \u5927\u6240\u9000\u7f29\u540e\uff0c\u5c0f\u5f8b\u6240\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u4ece\u59a5\u534f\u5f8b\u6240\u51fa\u8d70\u7684\u5f8b\u5e08\u65b0\u5f00\u7684\u4e8b\u52a1\u6240\uff09\u63a5\u624b\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u6848\u4ef6\uff1b<\/li>\n
                                    2. \u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u5c42\u5927\u91cf\u7f51\u4e0a\u5c0f\u989d\u6350\u6b3e\uff0c\u4f7f\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e3b\u8981\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u80fd\u4e0e\u5bf9\u624b\u6297\u8861\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7b79\u6b3e\u66f4\u591a\uff1b<\/li>\n
                                    3. \u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\u8ba2\u6237\u548c MS NOW \u6536\u89c6\u7387\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                      \u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u50cf\u6ce2\u5170\uff082023\uff09\u548c\u5308\u7259\u5229\uff082026\uff09\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u4e3e\u8f6e\u66ff\u6062\u590d\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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                                      • \u672a\u5de9\u56fa\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a<\/strong> \u5373\u4f7f 2029 \u5e74\u6062\u590d\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u5c06\u662f\u201c\u672a\u5de9\u56fa\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u201d\u3002\u5de9\u56fa\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8981\u6c42\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\u90fd\u627f\u8bfa\u9075\u5b88\u6c11\u4e3b\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u800c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u81f3\u4eca\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u627f\u8ba4 2020 \u5e74\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u7ee7\u7eed\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u4f4d\u66fe\u8bd5\u56fe\u63a8\u7ffb\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u3002<\/li>\n
                                      • \u91cd\u5efa\u673a\u6784\uff1a<\/strong> \u6062\u590d\u6c11\u4e3b\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u5efa\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\u3001\u8054\u90a6\u8c03\u67e5\u5c40\u3001\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u3001\u56fd\u571f\u5b89\u5168\u90e8\u7b49\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u516c\u52a1\u5458\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0e\u519b\u961f\u3001\u60c5\u62a5\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\uff0c\u89e3\u6563\u51c6\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n
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                                        \n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                        \u7f16\u6309 2002 \u5e74\uff0c\u5217\u7ef4\u8328\u57fa\u4e0e\u97e6\uff08Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way\uff09\u5728\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5b63 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":7309,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-6"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7308"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7308\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7316,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7308\/revisions\/7316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}