{"id":7317,"date":"2026-10-03T21:53:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-04T01:53:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7317"},"modified":"2026-10-03T21:54:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T01:54:29","slug":"7317","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7317","title":{"rendered":"\u798f\u5c71\u91cd\u8bfb\u300a\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u300b\uff1a\u88ab\u8bef\u8bfb\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 dir=\"ltr\">\u7f16\u6309<\/h2>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u798f\u5c71 1989 \u5e74\u7684\u300a\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f\u300b\u5e38\u88ab\u5f53\u4f5c\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u6c38\u4e45\u80dc\u5229\u201d\u7684\u5ba3\u8a00\uff0c\u5c61\u906d\u6279\u5224\u751a\u81f3\u5632\u8bbd\u30029\u00b711 \u4e8c\u5341\u4e94\u5468\u5e74\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u4e0e\u798f\u5c71\u91cd\u8bfb\u6b64\u4e66\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5176\u4e2d\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u534a\uff1a\u201c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u3002\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u5bcc\u8db3\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5374\u96be\u4ee5\u5b89\u653e\u4eba\u4eec\u6e34\u671b\u88ab\u627f\u8ba4\u3001\u4e43\u81f3\u88ab\u627f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4eba\u4e00\u7b49\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u4ee5\u6b64\u89e3\u91ca\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u518d\u5bb6\u4ea7\u5236\u5316\u201d\uff08repatrimonializing\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca 9\u00b711 \u540e\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u5c24\u5176\u503c\u5f97\u4e2d\u6587\u8bfb\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08competent state\uff09\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u53d7\u6cd5\u6cbb\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u5426\u6301\u7eed\u4ecd\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u8bbf\u8c08\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u4e3b\u7ebf\u662f\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u529b\u201d\uff08state capacity\uff09\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u96be\u4ee5\u5151\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5d1b\u8d77\u6240\u56de\u5e94\u7684\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u95ee\u9898\u201d\uff08real problem\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u628a\u5168\u6c11\u533b\u4fdd\u3001\u9ad8\u94c1\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5e76\u4e0d\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff08not radical\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u5408\u7406\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u3001\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6210\u672c\u529e\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 dir=\"ltr\">\u6765\u6e90<\/h2>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Ezra Klein, &#8220;Was Francis Fukuyama Right All Along?&#8221; <em>The Ezra Klein Show<\/em>, The New York Times Opinion, September 11, 2026\uff08\u7ecf\u7f16\u8f91\u7684\u6587\u5b57\u7a3f\uff1b\u89c6\u9891\u6807\u9898\u4e3a &#8220;Francis Fukuyama on Trump, China and the Legacy of 9\/11&#8243;\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>\u89c6\u9891\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=KIn-1EuXx78\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=KIn-1EuXx78<\/a><\/li>\n<li>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/09\/11\/opinion\/ezra-klein-podcast-francis-fukuyama.html\">https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/09\/11\/opinion\/ezra-klein-podcast-francis-fukuyama.html<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u4eba\u7269\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>\u798f\u5c71\uff08Francis Fukuyama\uff09\uff0c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u65b0\u4e66\u4e3a\u56de\u5fc6\u5f55 <em>In the Realm of the Last Man<\/em>\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\uff08Ezra Klein\uff09\uff0c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u8bc4\u8bba\u7248\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u3001\u64ad\u5ba2\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0e\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u6c64\u666e\u68ee\u5408\u8457\u300a\u5bcc\u8db3\u300b\uff08Abundance\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e3a\u5bf9\u8c08\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u7f16\u8bd1\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u975e\u9010\u5b57\u76f4\u8bd1\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-7318\" src=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man-200x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man-683x1024.jpg 683w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man-768x1152.jpg 768w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man.jpg 791w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u4e00\u3001\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u201d\u7a76\u7adf\u6307\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u9ed1\u683c\u5c14\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u201d\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u201d\u4e0d\u662f\u4ed6\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u501f\u81ea\u9ed1\u683c\u5c14\u3002\u9ed1\u683c\u5c14\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u201d\u662f\u5927\u5199\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff08History with a capital H\uff09\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u53d1\u5c55\u201d\u6216\u201c\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u201d\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u65b9\u5411\u3001\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u201c\u7ec8\u7ed3\u201d\u6307\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff08objective\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u518d\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/strong> \u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u7ec8\u70b9\u662f\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4c\u6258\u90a6\u30021980 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u798f\u5c71\u5224\u65ad\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f1a\u505c\u5728\u201c\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ad9\u201d\uff08penultimate stage\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u52a0\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4e00\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5ba3\u544a\u80dc\u5229\u3002<\/strong> \u5404\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u81ea\u6211\u74e6\u89e3\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u88ab\u5176\u8ffd\u968f\u8005\u629b\u5f03\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u5f53\u5e74\u95ee\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u66f4\u5e78\u798f\u3001\u751f\u6d3b\u66f4\u5145\u5b9e\uff1f\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u771f\u6b63\u63d0\u51fa\u8fc7\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5173\u4e8e\u9636\u7ea7\u77db\u76fe\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u4e0d\u5426\u8ba4\u9636\u7ea7\u77db\u76fe\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6218\u540e\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u884c\u7684\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u4e3b\uff08social democracy\uff09\uff0c\u9760\u518d\u5206\u914d\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u8005\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u5165\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7ef4\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u9769\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u6269\u5927\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff0c\u82e5\u4e0d\u4ee5\u653f\u6cbb\u624b\u6bb5\u52a0\u4ee5\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u4e8c\u3001\u201c\u627f\u8ba4\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u201d\uff1a\u5e73\u7b49\u8ba4\u53ef\u4e0e\u4f18\u8d8a\u8ba4\u53ef<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>thymos \u4e0e\u4e24\u4e2a\u81ea\u9020\u8bcd\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u56de\u6eaf\u5230\u67cf\u62c9\u56fe\u300a\u7406\u60f3\u56fd\u300b\u4e2d\u7075\u9b42\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206 thymos\uff08\u610f\u6c14\u3001\u81ea\u5c0a\uff09\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u3001\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u4eba\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u4eba\u683c\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u4ed6\u636e\u6b64\u81ea\u9020\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff1a\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>isothymia\uff08\u5e73\u7b49\u8ba4\u53ef\u6b32\u671b\uff09\uff1a\u8981\u6c42\u88ab\u627f\u8ba4\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u5e73\u7b49\u3002\u81ea\u7531\u793e\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u8d4b\u4e88\u6743\u5229\u6765\u6ee1\u8db3\u5b83\u3002<\/li>\n<li>megalothymia\uff08\u4f18\u8d8a\u8ba4\u53ef\u6b32\u671b\uff09\uff1a\u8981\u6c42\u88ab\u627f\u8ba4\u9ad8\u4eba\u4e00\u7b49\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4f8b\u8bc1\u3002<\/strong> \u540c\u6027\u5a5a\u59fb\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e\u201c\u6c11\u4e8b\u7ed3\u5408\u201d\u6240\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u8d22\u4ea7\u4e0e\u7ee7\u627f\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5b83\u8981\u7684\u662f\u5c0a\u4e25\u4e0a\u7684\u5e73\u7b49\u627f\u8ba4\u3002\u62c9\u5c14\u592b\u00b7\u827e\u91cc\u68ee\u7684\u5c0f\u8bf4\u300a\u9690\u5f62\u4eba\u300b\u5199\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5317\u65b9\u9ed1\u4eba\u4e0d\u88ab\u5f53\u4f5c\u540c\u7c7b\u201c\u770b\u89c1\u201d\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u6c11\u7cb9\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u4ee3\u8bb8\u591a\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u6e90\u4e8e\u201c\u9690\u5f62\u611f\u201d\uff08invisible\uff09\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u89c9\u5f97\u4e16\u754c\u7531\u53d7\u8fc7\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u7cbe\u82f1\u638c\u7ba1\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u88ab\u5e73\u7b49\u5bf9\u5f85\u3002\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u5de6\u7ffc\u7684\u201c\u89c9\u9192\u201d\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u53f3\u7ffc\u6c11\u7cb9\u90fd\u542b\u6709\u201c\u98a0\u5012\u5730\u4f4d\u201d\u7684\u51b2\u52a8\uff1b\u79d1\u6280\u53f3\u7ffc\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5316\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u4e5f\u6e90\u4e8e\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u7167\u89c4\u5219\u53d1\u4e86\u8d22\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u5374\u6068\u6211\u4eec\u201d\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff1a\u8d22\u5bcc\u5df2\u4e0d\u591f\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u5728 1992 \u5e74\u7684\u4e66\u4e2d\u5c31\u5199\u8fc7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u597d\u5904\uff0c\u662f\u4f18\u8d8a\u8ba4\u53ef\u6b32\u671b\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u8d22\u6765\u91ca\u653e\uff08bleeding off\uff09\u3002\u201c\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230 30 \u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u8d22\u5bcc\u5bf9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8981\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4f18\u8d8a\u8ba4\u53ef\u6b32\u671b\u7684\u4e24\u9762\u3002<\/strong> \u5b83\u65e2\u5a01\u80c1\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u5207\u5353\u8d8a\u6210\u5c31\uff08\u827a\u672f\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u7b49\uff09\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u5b8c\u5168\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u4e09\u3001\u201c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u4e0e\u4e3a\u6597\u4e89\u800c\u6597\u4e89<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u5c3c\u91c7\u7684\u201c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u3002<\/strong> \u5c3c\u91c7\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u201d\uff08last man\uff09\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u5bcc\u8db3\uff0c\u518d\u65e0\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u4e4b\u5192\u751f\u547d\u5371\u9669\u7684\u4e8b\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4e3a\u666e\u904d\u5e73\u7b49\u8fa9\u62a4\uff0c\u4f46\u627f\u8ba4\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u4e3a\u666e\u904d\u5e73\u7b49\u8fa9\u62a4\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u6e90\u81ea\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u4f20\u7edf\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u90fd\u6709\u503c\u5f97\u4fdd\u62a4\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u5185\u6838\u3002\u4f46\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u8bde\u751f\u4e8e 17 \u4e16\u7eaa\u5b97\u6559\u6218\u4e89\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u523b\u610f\u628a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u964d\u4f4e\u5230\u201c\u751f\u5b58\u201d\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u751f\u547d\u6743\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8ffd\u6c42\u7f8e\u597d\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u6743\u5229\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5bf9\u516c\u6c11\u8981\u6c42\u592a\u5c11\u3002<\/strong> \u73b0\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u53ea\u662f\u5b88\u6cd5\u7eb3\u7a0e\uff0c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u727a\u7272\u3002\u4eba\u6027\u4e2d\u6e34\u671b\u4e3a\u67d0\u9879\u4e8b\u4e1a\u732e\u8eab\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u56e0\u6b64\u65e0\u5904\u5b89\u653e\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6709\u4eba\u201c\u53d1\u660e\u4e00\u9879\u4e8b\u4e1a\u201d\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u4e3e 1 \u6708 6 \u65e5\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u8eab\u7a7f\u8ff7\u5f69\u670d\u3001\u81ea\u547d\u7231\u56fd\u8005\u7684\u4eba\u4e3a\u4f8b\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4e16\u4ee3\u5faa\u73af\u3002<\/strong> \u6700\u6e34\u671b\u81ea\u7531\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u72ec\u88c1\u4e0b\u7684\u4eba\uff1b\u5df2\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u5b83\u7684\u4eba\u5219\u89c6\u4e4b\u4e3a\u7406\u6240\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u6597\u4e89\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u201c\u628a\u5e03\u9c81\u585e\u5c14\u5f53\u6210\u8981\u53cd\u6297\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u201d\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4f1a\u8d77\u8d77\u843d\u843d\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4ecd\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u6240\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u6700\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u56db\u30019\u00b711 \u4e8c\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\uff1a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u6765\u81ea\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e94<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u666e\u904d\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u9a6c\u5217\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1a\u5b83\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u672c\u5c31\u662f\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u3001\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d2b\u7a77\u6df7\u4e71\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u624e\u6839\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u4e5f\u5df2\u9010\u6e10\u5f0f\u5fae\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u540e\u679c\u6765\u81ea\u53cd\u5e94\u672c\u8eab\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u957f\u8fdc\u540e\u679c\u7684\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u5bf9\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u4e0e\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e43\u81f3\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e94\uff08overreaction\uff09\uff1a\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u519b\u4e8b\u5316\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u8d70\u5411\u76d1\u63a7\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e24\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u53c8\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u597d\u7ed3\u5c40\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u9020\u6210\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u666e\u904d\u72ac\u5112\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4e0e\u65b0\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u51b3\u88c2\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u66fe\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e3b\u5f20\u63a8\u7ffb\u8428\u8fbe\u59c6\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4e0e\u65b0\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u51b3\u88c2\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u53cd\u5bf9\u4ee5\u6b66\u529b\u63a8\u7ffb\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6000\u7591\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u6709\u957f\u671f\u6539\u9020\u5f02\u8d28\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8010\u529b\uff08staying power\uff09\uff1a\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u4f17\u5927\u7ea6\u56db\u4e94\u5e74\u5c31\u4f1a\u538c\u5026\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u7559\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u7cdf\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u201d\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u51c6\u5907\u4e4b\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u6bd4\u4ed6\u9884\u6599\u7684\u8fd8\u8981\u7cdf\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u53cd\u601d\u793e\u4ea4\u5708\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u5f15\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u6d77\u7279\u7684\u201c\u52a8\u673a\u6027\u63a8\u7406\u201d\uff08motivated reasoning\uff09\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u66fe\u6df1\u53d7\u65b0\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u793e\u4ea4\u5708\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b\u4e0e\u4e4b\u51b3\u88c2\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u6539\u53d8\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5931\u53bb\u670b\u53cb\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u6218\u4e89\u4e0d\u518d\u80fd\u201c\u632f\u4f5c\u201d\u793e\u4f1a\u3002<\/strong> \u9ed1\u683c\u5c14\u7b49\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u80fd\u8ba9\u793e\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u632f\u4f5c\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4e0e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7834\u574f\u6027\u5e38\u89c4\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u8fd9\u5df2\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc5\u987b\u4e3a\u4f18\u8d8a\u8ba4\u53ef\u6b32\u671b\u627e\u5230\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u4e94\u3001\u5426\u51b3\u653f\u4f53\u4e0e\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u7684\u56f0\u5883<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u8bc4\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u7528\u610f\u826f\u5584\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u591f\u6709\u96c4\u5fc3\uff1a\u201c\u540e\u79cd\u65cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u201d\u7684\u8a00\u8f9e\u6ca1\u6709\u89e6\u53ca\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff1b\u4ed6\u8fc7\u4e8e\u63a5\u53d7\u201c\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\uff08neoliberalism\uff09\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u7528\u53cd\u5784\u65ad\u4e0e\u7a0e\u6536\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u5bf9\u8d22\u5bcc\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5426\u51b3\u653f\u4f53\uff08vetocracy\uff09\u3002<\/strong> \u6307\u5236\u8861\u73af\u8282\u8fc7\u591a\u3001\u4efb\u4f55\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u6539\u9769\u90fd\u96be\u4ee5\u63a8\u8fdb\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u4e3e\u4f8b\u8bf4\uff0c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5197\u957f\u8fa9\u8bba\uff08filibuster\uff09\u5e76\u975e\u5baa\u6cd5\u89c4\u5b9a\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5f53\u65f6\u5374\u8fde\u53d6\u6d88\u5b83\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u7684\u6982\u62ec\u3002<\/strong> \u201c\u5148\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u5360\u9886\u4e86\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5236\u5ea6\u4fd8\u83b7\u4e86\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u201d\uff1a\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u6210\u4e86\u5931\u7075\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b88\u62a4\u8005\uff0c\u5176\u9053\u5fb7\u62b1\u8d1f\u88ab\u5236\u5ea6\u6240\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u6240\u9650\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4e24\u96be\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u540c\u610f\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u56de\u5230 2016 \u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u90a3\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u65e0\u6240\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff08hobbled\uff09\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0a\u53f0\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u89c9\u5f97\u653f\u5e9c\u675f\u7f1a\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u201c\u5e72\u8106\u60f3\u5f53\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u201d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u6761\u628a\u4e2d\u90e8\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u7535\u529b\u9001\u5230\u897f\u6d77\u5cb8\u7684\u8f93\u7535\u7ebf\uff0c\u5149\u8bb8\u53ef\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5c31\u8981\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5de6\u7ffc\u5efa\u7acb\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u7684\u96be\u9898\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c2028 \u5e74\u82e5\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u5f53\u9009\uff0c\u201c\u5f97\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6709\u70b9\u50cf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u201d\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u5b88\u6cd5\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fee\u6539\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u591a\u884c\u52a8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u798f\u5c71 2022 \u5e74\u300a\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ca\u5176\u4e0d\u6ee1\u300b\u6240\u4e3b\u5f20\u7684\u201c\u8282\u5236\u201d\u5b58\u5728\u5f20\u529b\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u627f\u8ba4\u8fd9\u4e00\u77db\u76fe\uff1a\u574f\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u597d\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u6709\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6bdb\u75c5\uff1b\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u597d\u662f\u574f\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7528\u5b83\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ec0\u4e48\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u516d\u3001\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0e\u201c\u518d\u5bb6\u4ea7\u5236\u5316\u201d<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u201c\u5bb6\u4ea7\u5236\u201d\uff08patrimonialism\uff09\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/strong> \u6307\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u53ca\u5176\u4eb2\u53cb\u8c0b\u5229\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u975e\u4eba\u683c\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08impersonal\uff09\u59cb\u7ec8\u9762\u4e34\u5012\u9000\u7684\u8bf1\u60d1\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u4e3e\u5965\u65af\u66fc\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff1a\u5e1d\u56fd\u4ece\u5df4\u5c14\u5e72\u5f81\u53ec\u7537\u5b69\uff0c\u57f9\u517b\u6210\u4e0d\u5f97\u6210\u5bb6\u7684\u5b98\u5458\u548c\u5c06\u9886\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u88d9\u5e26\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5374\u5411\u7981\u536b\u519b\u6210\u5bb6\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u8ba9\u6b65\uff0c\u9000\u56de\u4e86\u5bb6\u4ea7\u5236\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/strong> \u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u7b56\u7531\u5e93\u4ec0\u7eb3\u3001\u5a01\u7279\u79d1\u592b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u4eb2\u53cb\uff08friends and family\uff09\u800c\u975e\u804c\u4e1a\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u6b64\u4ed8\u51fa\u4ee3\u4ef7\u201d\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u62e9\u4f18\u9009\u62d4\u3001\u975e\u4eba\u683c\u5316\uff08meritocratic, impersonal\uff09\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u6765\u8fd0\u4f5c\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u5668\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5bf9\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u5bb9\u5fcd\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u4f17\u548c\u4e3b\u6d41\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8150\u8d25\u7a0b\u5ea6\u201c\u5b8c\u5168\u9707\u60ca\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u8005\u8981\u7684\u662f\u201c\u5f3a\u4eba\u201d\uff08strong leader\uff09\uff0c\u613f\u610f\u4ee5\u8150\u8d25\u4e3a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6362\u53d6\u8fb9\u5883\u7ba1\u63a7\u7b49\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u5ea6\u672c\u662f\u4e3a\u9632\u8303\u8fd9\u79cd\u9886\u8896\u800c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5ba1\u614e\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u5ea6\u6700\u7ec8\u80fd\u633a\u4f4f\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u88ab\u5e26\u4e0a\u4e00\u6bb5\u975e\u5e38\u5371\u9669\u7684\u65c5\u7a0b\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u4e03\u3001\u4e39\u9ea6\u3001\u6b27\u6d32\u4e0e\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u529b\u201d<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u4e39\u9ea6\u8fd8\u662f\u76ee\u6807\u5417\uff1f<\/strong> \u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u95ee\uff1a\u798f\u5c71\u5173\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4ee5\u201c\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u4e3a\u4e39\u9ea6\u201d\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u7a33\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u843d\u540e\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7a81\u98de\u731b\u8fdb\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u4e39\u9ea6\u8fd8\u662f\u76ee\u6807\u5417\uff1f\u798f\u5c71\u56de\u7b54\uff1a\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u770b\u91cd\u7684\u662f\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u6b23\u8d4f\u4e39\u9ea6\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u798f\u5229\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a\uff08run competently\uff09\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u54ea\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u653f\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7f8e\u5fb7\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u798f\u5229\u8fd8\u662f\u9650\u5236\u79fb\u6c11\uff0c\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u4f53\u7cfb\uff08competent, modern public administration\uff09\u90fd\u662f\u4f18\u52bf\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u9760\u5b83\u81f4\u5bcc\uff0c\u4e5f\u9760\u5b83\u5e94\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7b49\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u6b27\u6d32\u4e0d\u662f\u699c\u6837\u3002<\/strong> \u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5316\uff1a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u4e0e\u5e03\u9c81\u585e\u5c14\u5c42\u5c42\u7acb\u89c4\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u4e00\u5927\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u5e9c\u201c\u5176\u5b9e\u6ca1\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u201d\uff08not so competent\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u4ee5\u5806\u79ef\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u591a\u5c11\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u3002\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u5f53\u524a\u51cf\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u4f9d\u9760\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u4e0e\u5224\u65ad\uff1b\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u6765\u81ea\u6cbb\u7406\u6210\u679c\uff08outcomes\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u516b\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\uff1a\u6c11\u7cb9\u5174\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002<\/strong> \u6c11\u7cb9\u53f3\u7ffc\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u6070\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u5316\u540c\u6b65\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u798f\u5c71\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u6c11\u7cb9\u6210\u56e0\u7684\u6e05\u5355\u91cc\uff0c\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u5e38\u88ab\u653e\u5728\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5374\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u89e3\u91ca\u90fd\u91cd\u8981\uff1a\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u5b83\uff0c\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u6c11\u7cb9\u5174\u8d77\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5f62\u6001\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4f8b\u8bc1\u3002<\/strong> \u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u6c11\u7cb9\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u8eab\u4efd\u8ba4\u540c\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u7f51\u7ea2\u9760\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u51fa\u683c\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u83b7\u53d6\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u7531\u70b9\u8d5e\u6570\u800c\u975e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u4e5d\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1a\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u5426\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u7591<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u533a\u522b\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u8bf4\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08competent state\uff09\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u6cd5\u6cbb\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\uff08limited both by rule of law and by elections\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08very competent\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u65e2\u4e0d\u53d7\u6cd5\u6cbb\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53d7\u9009\u4e3e\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6cbb\u7406\u8d28\u91cf\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u7684\u7d20\u8d28\uff08quality of rulers\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5112\u5bb6\u4f20\u7edf\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5112\u5bb6\u628a\u5b98\u50da\u5236\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u7684\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u7531\u53d7\u8fc7\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4eba\u6cbb\u7406\uff1b\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u515a\u653f\u5e72\u90e8\u4ecd\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u7cbe\u82f1\u4e2d\u9009\u62d4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e2d\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u6781\u5f3a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08tremendously competent state\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u8005\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u8bf4\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u76f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u4e0e\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u80fd\u7ad9\u5728\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u6b64\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u80fd\u5426\u6301\u7eed\u4ecd\u662f\u5f00\u653e\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/strong> \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u52a0\u500d\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u5bfc\u5411\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\uff1b\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u95ee\u9898\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u9752\u5e74\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5df2\u5904\u4e8e\u6781\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u60f3\u5f53\u7136\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u9000\u5316\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u8bf4\u81ea\u5df1\u5f00\u59cb\u9891\u7e41\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e2d\u7f8e\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6a21\u5f0f\u5728\u9000\u5316\uff1a\u73b0\u653f\u5e9c\u653b\u51fb\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u3001\u653b\u51fb\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f1a\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u5341\u3001\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1aAI \u7684\u5a01\u80c1<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u6280\u672f\u51b3\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5f62\u6001\u3002<\/strong> \u798f\u5c71\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ece\u672a\u4e3b\u5f20\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u6280\u672f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u90fd\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u5236\u5ea6\uff1b\u6280\u672f\u6761\u4ef6\u51b3\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u5f62\u6001\u3002\u4ed6\u65e9\u5e74\u5c31\u8b66\u544a\u8fc7\uff0c\u57fa\u56e0\u7f16\u8f91\u53ef\u80fd\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u201c\u4e0d\u540c\u7b49\u7ea7\u7684\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u52a8\u6447\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5e73\u7b49\u524d\u63d0\uff1b\u751f\u7269\u6280\u672f\u4e0e AI \u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u66f4\u96be\u9884\u6599\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u4e8e\u201c\u4ee3\u7406\u5f0f AI\u201d\uff08agentic AI\uff09\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u628a\u6743\u529b\u59d4\u6258\u7ed9\u80fd\u591f\u81ea\u4e3b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u673a\u5668\uff0c\u800c\u673a\u5668\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u4e0e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005\u671f\u671b\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u3002\u4ed6\u5f62\u5bb9\u524d\u6cbf\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u201c\u50cf\u521a\u53d1\u73b0\u65b0\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u52a8\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\u201d\uff0c\u9020\u51fa\u4e86\u5b83\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u5b83\u5185\u90e8\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u4e2d\u7f8e\u80fd\u5426\u7acb\u89c4\u3002<\/strong> \u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62c5\u5fc3\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f1a\u653e\u4efb AI \u53d1\u5c55\uff1a\u4e2d\u5171\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u653e\u4efb\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u60f3\u8981\u63a7\u5236 AI\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u57fa\u672c\u89c4\u5219\uff08ground rules\uff09\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u5f3a\u5927\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u72ec\u81ea\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002\u4f46\u5bf9\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u534f\u8bae\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4fe1\u201d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ed6\u627f\u8ba4\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u903b\u8f91\u6050\u6015\u96be\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u8fd9\u4f1a\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\">\u5341\u4e00\u3001\u51fa\u8def\uff1a\u8d62\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u91cd\u5efa\u80fd\u529e\u6210\u4e8b\u7684\u653f\u5e9c<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/strong> \u5728\u4ecd\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u516c\u6b63\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u51fa\u8def\u5c31\u662f\u8d62\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u4ee5\u4eca\u5e74 4 \u6708\u7684\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5927\u9009\u4e3a\u8303\u4f8b\uff1a\u6267\u653f 16 \u5e74\u7684\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\uff0c\u88ab\u9a6c\u624e\u5c14\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8054\u76df\u4ee5\u5927\u6bd4\u5206\u51fb\u8d25\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd 11 \u6708\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f20\u9012\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u798f\u5c71\u5fc3\u76ee\u4e2d\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002<\/strong> \u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u529b\u201d\uff08state capacity\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u653f\u5e9c\u80fd\u8bbe\u5b9a\u88ab\u666e\u904d\u63a5\u53d7\u3001\u5e76\u4e0d\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff08generally accepted, not radical, goals\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u5168\u6c11\u533b\u4fdd\u3001\u4fee\u5efa\u9ad8\u94c1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5408\u7406\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u3001\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff08reasonable amount of time, at a reasonable cost\uff09\u771f\u6b63\u529e\u6210\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u767b\u6708\u4f5c\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea 1961 \u5e74\u5ba3\u5e03\u767b\u6708\uff0c1969 \u5e74\u5373\u544a\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u5982\u4eca\u91cd\u8fd4\u6708\u7403\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e00\u518d\u62d6\u5ef6\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u6267\u884c\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u5ba3\u5e03\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u51fa\u4e86\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u79f0\u4e0d\u4e0a\u9053\u5fb7\u613f\u666f\uff0c\u4f46\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u613f\u666f\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u7684\u8865\u5145\u3002<\/strong> \u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ea\u60f3\u8981\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u7269\u4ef7\uff0c\u8fd8\u60f3\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u6709\u9053\u5fb7\u62b1\u8d1f\u7684\u4e8b\u4e1a\uff1b\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u9700\u8981\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u56de\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u798f\u5c71\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u793e\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u5230\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6539\u53d8\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0e\u6743\u529b\u7684\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ba9\u79d1\u6280\u5be1\u5934\u82b1\u4e0a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5f71\u54cd\u9009\u4e3e\uff1b\u53c8\u5982\u8ba9\u653f\u5e9c\u9a7e\u9a6d AI\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u88ab\u6280\u672f\u9a7e\u9a6d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f16\u6309 \u798f\u5c71 1989 \u5e74\u7684\u300a\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f\u300b\u5e38\u88ab\u5f53\u4f5c\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u6c38\u4e45\u80dc\u5229\u201d\u7684\u5ba3\u8a00\uff0c\u5c61\u906d\u6279\u5224\u751a\u81f3\u5632\u8bbd\u30029\u00b711 \u4e8c\u5341 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":7318,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-6"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7317"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7317\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7328,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7317\/revisions\/7328"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}