{"id":7334,"date":"2026-10-05T05:00:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T09:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7334"},"modified":"2026-10-05T05:00:42","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T09:00:42","slug":"%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e6%ad%a3%e6%bb%91%e5%90%91%e9%bb%91%e5%b8%ae%e5%a4%a9%e5%a0%82%ef%bc%8c%e6%80%80%e6%97%a7%e8%b6%8a%e6%9d%a5%e8%b6%8a%e4%b8%8d%e7%8e%b0%e5%ae%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7334","title":{"rendered":"\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u6ed1\u5411\u201c\u9ed1\u5e2e\u5929\u5802\u201d\uff0c\u6000\u65e7\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>* \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aHal Brands\uff08\u7ea6\u7ff0\u65af\u00b7\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u9ad8\u7ea7\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u9662\u4ea8\u5229\u00b7A\u00b7\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6770\u51fa\u6559\u6388\uff09<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>* \u672c\u6587\u7cfb\u7f16\u8bd1\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u5185\u5bb9\u8bf7\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587<br \/><\/em><br \/><em>* \u539f\u6587\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2026\/09\/09\/hal-brands-rules-based-order-great-power-politics-geopolitics\/\">https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2026\/09\/09\/hal-brands-rules-based-order-great-power-politics-geopolitics\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"827\" height=\"742\" class=\"wp-image-7335\" src=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3.png 827w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3-300x269.png 300w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3-768x689.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 827px) 100vw, 827px\" \/><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u4e4b\u521d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u66fe\u7ecf\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u5728\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6587\u660e\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u8ba9\u8d38\u6613\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u8ba9\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fb9\u754c\u548c\u822a\u884c\u81ea\u7531\u62e5\u6709\u5171\u540c\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u89c4\u8303\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u6210\u4e3a\u7ef4\u7cfb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u201c\u8b66\u5bdf\u201d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f53\u7cfb\u91cc\uff0c\u5f00\u653e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u80fd\u591f\u5e26\u6765\u5171\u540c\u7e41\u8363\uff0c\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u7740\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u800c\u9010\u6e10\u7f13\u548c\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7ea6\u7ff0\u65af\u00b7\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u9ad8\u7ea7\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u9662\u4ea8\u5229\u00b7A\u00b7\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6770\u51fa\u6559\u6388\u54c8\u5c14\u00b7\u5e03\u5170\u5179\uff08Hal Brands\uff09\u5728\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u300b2026\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u53f7\u5c01\u9762\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u76f4\u8a00\uff1a\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9f13\u821e\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u613f\u666f\uff0c\u5374\u7ec8\u7a76\u662f\u5e7b\u89c9\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u6ed1\u5411\u201c\u9ed1\u5e2e\u5929\u5802\u201d\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u53ea\u770b\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u8bb2\u89c4\u5219\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u968f\u7740\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u91cd\u65b0\u5bfb\u6c42\u52bf\u529b\u8303\u56f4\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc5\u901f\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u538c\u5026\u627f\u62c5\u5168\u7403\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5957\u4f53\u7cfb\u5f00\u59cb\u677e\u52a8\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u540e\u82cf\u8054\u5730\u533a\u6539\u53d8\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5229\u7528\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u6269\u5145\u519b\u529b\u3001\u4e89\u593a\u672a\u6765\u4ea7\u4e1a\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u5316\u5728\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff1b\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5386\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\uff0c\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u6000\u7591\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u8fd8\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u5145\u5f53\u5168\u7403\u201c\u6cbb\u5b89\u5b98\u201d\u3002\u4ece2013\u81f32014\u5e74\u524d\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5316\u6b66\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u201c\u7ea2\u7ebf\u201d\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u5151\u73b0\uff0c\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5165\u4fb5\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u9650\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7531\u75b2\u60eb\u8d70\u5411\u5931\u671b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u8ba9\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53cd\u800c\u638f\u7a7a\u4e86\u672c\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3001\u58ee\u5927\u4e86\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u53d8\u5316\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u957f\u671f\u9677\u5165\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u5173\u7a0e\u91cd\u65b0\u62ac\u5934\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u751a\u81f3\u628a\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6597\u4e89\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u9886\u571f\u4e89\u7aef\u3001\u519b\u5907\u7ade\u4e89\u548c\u519b\u63a7\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u8ba9\u56fd\u9645\u89c4\u5219\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u50cf\u4e00\u5c42\u8584\u819c\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u751a\u81f3\u501f\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5f62\u8c61\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u53d8\u6210\u201cgangster\u2019s paradise\u201d\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c4\u5219\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u3001\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u53ea\u8bb2\u62f3\u5934\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u201c\u9ed1\u5e2e\u5929\u5802\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u5e03\u5170\u5179\u540c\u65f6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u773c\u4e0b\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f1930\u5e74\u4ee3\u90a3\u79cd\u5168\u9762\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u8054\u76df\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5236\u5ea6\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u5728\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u9ed1\u6697\u3001\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u5bbd\u5bb9\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u662f\u201c\u81ea\u52a9\u201d\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fdd\u969c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c11\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u5b8c\u5168\u5bc4\u6258\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u3001\u67d0\u4efd\u56fd\u9645\u6761\u7ea6\u6216\u67d0\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u6784\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u5230\u6ce2\u5170\u548c\u65e5\u672c\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u7a81\u7834\u65e7\u6709\u8d22\u653f\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u5316\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\u524d\u7ebf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u5219\u79ef\u6781\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u8d8a\u5357\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u201c\u81ea\u52a9\u201d\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u5b64\u7acb\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u591a\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5e03\u5170\u5179\u5e76\u4e0d\u770b\u597d\u7531\u4f17\u591a\u201c\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u201d\u8054\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u62ef\u6551\u65e7\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u603b\u7406\u9a6c\u514b\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\uff08Mark Carney\uff09\u66fe\u5728\u8fbe\u6c83\u65af\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u65f6\u523b\u201d\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u5408\u7ef4\u62a4\u89c4\u5219\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u5e03\u5170\u5179\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6743\u529b\u73b0\u5b9e\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u8fd9\u5f88\u96be\u6210\u529f\u3002\u66f4\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u8ba9\u89c4\u6a21\u8f83\u5c0f\u3001\u5229\u76ca\u66f4\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f62\u6210\u7d27\u5bc6\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u81ea\u8eab\u5bf9\u5355\u4e00\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u5355\u4e00\u5b89\u5168\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p 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