{"id":7477,"date":"2026-10-13T20:40:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T00:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7477"},"modified":"2026-10-13T20:40:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T00:40:09","slug":"%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%e5%80%92%e9%80%80%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%8f%8d%e5%af%b9%e6%b4%be%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e7%bb%93%e7%9b%9f%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7477","title":{"rendered":"\u6c11\u4e3b\u5012\u9000\u56fd\u5bb6\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u5982\u4f55\u7ed3\u76df\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>* \u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.journalofdemocracy.org\/articles\/how-to-build-the-right-coalition\/<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"375\" class=\"wp-image-7478\" src=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-10.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-10.png 900w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-10-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-10-768x320.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u516d\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\u8054\u624b\uff0c\u8f93\u4e86\uff1b\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\u5355\u5e72\uff0c\u8d62\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u538b\u5012\u6027\u5927\u80dc\u3002\u600e\u4e48\u505a\u5230\u7684\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u5bd3\u8a00\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u30022022\u5e74\uff0c\u4e3a\u62c9\u4e0b\u6267\u653f12\u5e74\u7684\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\uff0c\u4ece\u6fc0\u8fdb\u53f3\u7ffc\u7684\u5c24\u6bd4\u514b\u515a\u5230\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u7684\u52a8\u91cf\u8fd0\uff0c\u516d\u4e2a\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u7ec4\u6210\u5927\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u63a8\u51fa106\u540d\u5171\u540c\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7ed3\u679c\u8054\u76df\u5f97\u7968\u4e0d\u5347\u53cd\u964d\uff0c\u6bd4\u5404\u515a\u56db\u5e74\u524d\u5355\u72ec\u53c2\u9009\u65f6\u7684\u603b\u548c\u8fd8\u5c11\u4e8612%\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u4e00\u5ea6\u8ba4\u5b9a\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u9009\u4e3e\u89c4\u5219\u5df2\u88ab\u6539\u5230\u65e0\u4eba\u80fd\u8d62\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56db\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u653f\u575b\u65b0\u4eba\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u9a6c\u624e\u5c14\u7387\u9886\u6210\u7acb\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u8482\u8428\u515a\u5355\u72ec\u51fa\u6218\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6c42\u5176\u4ed6\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u5728\u5173\u952e\u9009\u533a\u4e3b\u52a8\u8ba9\u8def\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u4e3e\u62ff\u4e0b\u8bae\u4f1a\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u7ec8\u7ed3\u4e86\u6b27\u5c14\u73ed\u957f\u8fbe16\u5e74\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u62b1\u56e2\u4e3a\u4f55\u53cd\u800c\u5403\u4e8f\uff1f\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u5e73\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u857e\u5207\u5c14\u00b7\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\uff08Rachel Kleinfeld\uff09\u5728\u65b0\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5979\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5012\u9000\u7684\u4e2d\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u4e0e\u5176\u9ad8\u8c03\u201c\u5408\u4f53\u201d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u7ed3\u6210\u201c\u9759\u9ed8\u8054\u76df\u201d\uff08quiet coalition\uff09\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u505a\u6cd5\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\uff1a<strong>\u5404\u515a\u4fdd\u6301\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u9009\u533a\u4e92\u4e0d\u7ade\u4e89\uff1b\u6216\u5206\u5934\u53c2\u9009\uff0c\u9009\u540e\u518d\u8054\u624b\u7ec4\u9601\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\u4e0e\u4e3b\u6d41\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u8d39\u5c14\u5fb7\u66fc\uff08Benjamin Feldman\uff09\u4e0e\u9ea6\u79d1\u4f0a\uff08Jennifer McCoy\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c2013\u81f32023\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8054\u76df\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f7b\u5ea6\u5012\u9000\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d62\u4e0b\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u5ea6\u5012\u9000\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d62\u4e0b\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff0c\u80dc\u7387\u662f\u5355\u4e00\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u591a\u3002\u4f46\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6b64\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u591a\u4ee5\u5a01\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u6781\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002\u5728\u9009\u6c11\u51e0\u4e4e\u5bf9\u534a\u6495\u88c2\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u7edf\u4e00\u8054\u76df\u672a\u5fc5\u540c\u6837\u594f\u6548\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5df4\u897f\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4f8b\u30022022\u5e74\uff0c\u5362\u62c9\uff08Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\uff09\u96c6\u7ed311\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\uff0c\u5e76\u9080\u8bf7\u6614\u65e5\u5bf9\u624b\u3001\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u7684\u963f\u5c14\u514b\u660e\uff08Geraldo Alckmin\uff09\u642d\u6863\u7ade\u9009\uff0c\u582a\u79f0\u7edf\u4e00\u8054\u76df\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5374\u53ea\u4ee550.9%\u7684\u5f97\u7968\u7387\u9669\u80dc\u3002\u8fdb\u5165\u4e8c\u9009\u4e00\u7684\u51b3\u9009\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u9996\u8f6e\u7684\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u7f29\u6c34\u4e86\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6ce2\u51702023\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u5219\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u201c\u9759\u9ed8\u8054\u76df\u201d\u7684\u5a01\u529b\u3002\u6267\u653f\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0e\u516c\u6b63\u515a\uff08PiS\uff09\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u516c\u6c11\u8054\u76df\u5404\u6709\u7ea6\u4e09\u6210\u94c1\u6746\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u5de6\u53f3\u80dc\u8d1f\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u4e24\u8fb9\u90fd\u53cd\u611f\u7684&#8221;\u53cc\u91cd\u538c\u6076\u8005&#8221;\u3002\u7535\u89c6\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u51fa\u8eab\u7684\u970d\u6c83\u592b\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff08Szymon Ho\u0142ownia\uff09\u62d2\u7edd\u52a0\u5165\u516c\u6c11\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u5e26\u9886\u201c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6761\u9053\u8def\u201d\u72ec\u7acb\u53c2\u9009\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u62ff\u4e0b14.4%\u7684\u9009\u7968\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u8ba9\u53ea\u83b7\u5f9730.7%\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u8054\u76df\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ec4\u6210\u6267\u653f\u591a\u6570\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u7edf\u4e00\u8054\u76df\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u9677\u9631\uff1a<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1. \u88ab\u201c\u6709\u6bd2\u201d\u5927\u515a\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002 \u5308\u7259\u5229\u793e\u4f1a\u515a\uff08MSZP\uff09\u7b49\u515a\u56e0\u8150\u8d25\u4e11\u95fb\uff0c\u4ee4\u6267\u653f\u515a\u9009\u6c11\u4e0d\u613f\u5012\u6208\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2. \u515a\u9645\u8ba8\u4ef7\u8fd8\u4ef7\u6d88\u8017\u7ade\u9009\u7cbe\u529b\u3002 \u5185\u90e8\u59a5\u534f\u5e38\u5e38\u63a8\u51fa\u5f31\u52bf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3. \u8ba8\u597d\u65b0\u9009\u6c11\u4f1a\u758f\u8fdc\u57fa\u672c\u76d8\u3002 2022\u5e74\u5308\u7259\u5229\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8054\u76df\u7684\u5f97\u7968\uff0c\u6bd4\u5404\u515a2018\u5e74\u5355\u72ec\u53c2\u9009\u65f6\u7684\u603b\u548c\u8fd8\u5c11\u4e8612%\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5979\u8fd8\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u8d62\u4e00\u6b21\u8fdc\u8fdc\u4e0d\u591f\u30022015\u5e74\uff0c\u65af\u91cc\u5170\u5361\u7684\u56e2\u7ed3\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\u5185\u6597\u4e0d\u65ad\uff0c\u4e94\u5e74\u540e\u62c9\u8d3e\u5e15\u514b\u8428\uff08Rajapaksa\uff09\u5bb6\u65cf\u4ee5\u538b\u5012\u6027\u4f18\u52bf\u91cd\u8fd4\u653f\u575b\u3002\u6ce2\u5170\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0e\u516c\u6b63\u515a\u4e5f\u57282025\u5e74\u593a\u56de\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u804c\u4f4d\u3002\u53ef\u89c1\u591a\u6570\u9009\u6c11\u5e76\u672a\u5f62\u6210\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u201c\u4eb2\u6c11\u4e3b\u201d\u8ba4\u540c\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6587\u7ae0\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\uff1a\u8054\u76df\u786e\u5b9e\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u80dc\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e00\u79cd\u3002\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5012\u9000\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u201c\u9759\u9ed8\u8054\u76df\u201d\u6216\u8bb8\u624d\u662f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>* \u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.journalofdemocracy.org\/articles\/how- [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":7478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-6"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7477"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7477\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7483,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7477\/revisions\/7483"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}