{"id":7833,"date":"2026-11-07T22:54:52","date_gmt":"2026-11-08T03:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7833"},"modified":"2026-11-07T22:55:07","modified_gmt":"2026-11-08T03:55:07","slug":"%e5%b8%83%e9%b2%81%e9%87%91%e6%96%af%e5%ad%a6%e4%bc%9a%ef%bc%9a%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%e5%85%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e5%a4%a7%e8%83%9c%ef%bc%8c2028%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e4%bb%8d%e6%9c%aa%e5%8f%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/?p=7833","title":{"rendered":"\u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65af\u5b66\u4f1a\uff1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e3a\u4f55\u5927\u80dc\uff0c2028\u5e74\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ecd\u672a\u53ef\u77e5"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>\u7f16\u6309<\/h2>\n<p>2026\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4ee5\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6a2a\u626b\u4e24\u9662\u544a\u7ec8\u3002\u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65af\u5b66\u4f1a\u8d44\u6df1\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5361\u9a6c\u514b\uff08Elaine Kamarck\uff09\u4e0e\u52a0\u5c14\u65af\u987f\uff08William A. Galston\uff09\u6b64\u6587\u7684\u8981\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u533a\u5206\u4e24\u79cd\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u9009\u6c11\u6539\u6295\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u548c\u9009\u6c11\u4e0d\u518d\u51fa\u95e8\u6295\u7968\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u53ea\u67096%\u7684\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u5728\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u6539\u6295\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u5171\u548c\u515a\u9009\u6c11\u5f85\u5728\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u800c\u52a8\u5458\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u9009\u6c11\u5927\u91cf\u6295\u7968\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c2024\u5e74\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u591a\u65cf\u88d4\u5de5\u4eba\u9636\u7ea7\u653f\u515a\u201d\u96cf\u5f62\u7684\u5171\u548c\u515a\u65b0\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u6210\u653f\u515a\u91cd\u7ec4\uff08realignment\uff0c\u5373\u9009\u6c11\u5bf9\u653f\u515a\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5f52\u5c5e\u53d1\u751f\u6301\u4e45\u8f6c\u79fb\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u50cf\u4e00\u6b21\u53ef\u9006\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u6027\u6446\u52a8\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u540c\u65f6\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u95ee\u8d23\u4ecd\u5728\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff1a\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u63a8\u9ad8\u7684\u7269\u4ef7\u3001\u8d8a\u754c\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u6267\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56f4\u7ed5\u603b\u7edf\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u751f\u610f\u7684\u8150\u8d25\u7591\u8651\uff0c\u90fd\u5728\u9009\u7968\u4e0a\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff1b\u5171\u548c\u515a\u5728\u5f97\u514b\u8428\u65af\u3001\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u91cd\u5212\u9009\u533a\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u62c9\u7f8e\u88d4\u9009\u6c11\u56de\u6d41\u800c\u5927\u591a\u843d\u7a7a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u544a\u8beb\uff0c\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u5386\u6765\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6b64\u524d\u62c5\u5fe7\u7f8e\u56fd\u6ed1\u5411\u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u81f3\u5c11\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u8fd9\u6761\u7ea0\u9519\u6e20\u9053\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\" aria-level=\"5\">\u6765\u6e90<\/h3>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>\u539f\u6587\uff1aElaine Kamarck and William A. Galston, \u201cHow Democrats won big, and why 2028 remains an open question,\u201d Brookings Institution\uff0c2026\u5e7411\u67086\u65e5<\/li>\n<li>\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/how-democrats-won-big-and-why-2028-remains-an-open-question\/\">https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/how-democrats-won-big-and-why-2028-remains-an-open-question\/<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_7834\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7834\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-7834 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-2302982283-1-300x211.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-2302982283-1-300x211.webp 300w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-2302982283-1-1024x720.webp 1024w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-2302982283-1-768x540.webp 768w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-2302982283-1-1536x1080.webp 1536w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-2302982283-1-1200x844.webp 1200w, https:\/\/chinademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-2302982283-1.webp 1776w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7834\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Supporters of Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico cheer after he won the Texas race during a midterm election night watch party at the Long Center for the Performing Arts in Austin, Texas, on Nov. 3, 2026. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3 dir=\"ltr\" aria-level=\"4\">\u6458\u8981\uff08\u7f16\u8bd1\uff09<\/h3>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong>\u4e00\u3001\u80dc\u8d1f\u624b\uff1a\u4e0d\u662f\u5012\u6208\uff0c\u662f\u7f3a\u5e2d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p 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dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><strong>\u603b\u7edf\u652f\u6301\u7387<\/strong>\u3002\u6295\u7968\u65f6\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u5e73\u5747\u53ea\u670939%\u3002\u5728\u6700\u540e\u4ecd\u6709\u7ade\u4e89\u768411\u4e2a\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u9009\u533a\u4e2d\uff0c\u670910\u4e2a\u5dde\u4ed62024\u5e74\u8d62\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u6b2111\u4e2a\u5dde\u90fd\u662f\u53cd\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u4eba\u591a\u4e8e\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7269\u4ef7<\/strong>\u3002\u9009\u6c11\u628a\u9ad8\u7269\u4ef7\u76f4\u63a5\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u519c\u6751\u53d7\u5bb3\u6700\u6df1\uff1a\u51fa\u53e3\u906d\u5230\u62a5\u590d\uff0c\u67f4\u6cb9\u548c\u5316\u80a5\u6da8\u4ef7\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4e3a\u4f55\u80fd\u5728\u827e\u5965\u74e6\u3001\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u3001\u582a\u8428\u65af\u8d62\u4e0b\u5168\u5dde\u9009\u4e3e\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u79fb\u6c11\u6267\u6cd5<\/strong>\u3002\u9009\u6c11\u8ba4\u53ef\u5c01\u5835\u5357\u90e8\u8fb9\u5883\uff0c\u4f46\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a 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2026\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4ee5\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6a2a\u626b\u4e24\u9662\u544a\u7ec8\u3002\u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65af\u5b66\u4f1a\u8d44\u6df1\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5361\u9a6c\u514b\uff08Elaine Kamarck\uff09 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